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He is a investor and even loby's politicans mcuh to many peoples surprise. He is part of wall street and always has been. I agree with those who say npthing chnaged and we will just be drifting along until business sees the total rules they have to play by.
You're wrong :
In 2007 the US had 4,315,000 births, it's the best number ever seen !
In 2005 Japan had 1,062,000 births, very far of the 1950 numbers (2,300,000)
The US demographics are the best in the industrialized world so far.
Pessimism and lies OUT
Optimism = WIN
[SIZE=3] [/SIZE]
Ugg, I guess I am going to need to explain percentages.
First off births only matter years later when they become self-sufficient adults. So in 40 year those births will help a lot when they at their peak age for spending.
Second, our birth boom peaked in 1961 with 4,268,000 births from a population of 183,691,481, with over 80,000,000 under age 18. The birth rate from 1947-1961 averaged about 25%. The 2007 birth rate was about 14% due to a 301 million population with still only about 82 million under age 18.
The problem we are experiencing is in part due to the drop off in births after 1961 when the birth rate dropped from 25% to 14.8% by 1976, before "climbing” all the way back up to 16.7% in 1990. That 62-76 drop are the generation that is entering their peak spending age and unfortunately there is not enough of them to spend as the boomers did and they are big victims of the debt boom.
You are correct that our demographics are better than the rest of the developed world but that is no comfort being the best of the worst.
You can call me pessimistic if you like, I was called too optimistic in the 90’s and 00’s because of my promotion of demographics and economics. I prefer being observant and realistic.
That doesn't mean his perspective is not relevent or useful.
Berkshire Hathaway is a company with over $100B in revenue in a huge range of businesses and markets. Buffett can see almost instantly how business is changing for better or worse. He has visibility into the economy perhaps unmatched by any other business executive.
That doesn't mean his perspective is not relevent or useful.
Exactly, he's involved in business decisions that are made based on perception of economic health and has proven to be very good at it. When he says "we're hiring" that's a good thing.
If Buffet says we are in a recovery-- then I will most certainly believe him. However, I believe it is hard to determine how long this recovery will take, I think the worst is over (2008 financial crisis), yet we still will probably remain stagnant for quite a while before we truly begin to see larger upswings in stocks and decreases in unemployment.
That doesn't mean his perspective is not relevent or useful.
Berkshire Hathaway is a company with over $100B in revenue in a huge range of businesses and markets. Buffett can see almost instantly how business is changing for better or worse. He has visibility into the economy perhaps unmatched by any other business executive.
I agree-Alan Greenspan IS an economist and kind of full of it. I'll take Buffett's opinion over an economist's like Greenspan any day.
If Buffet says we are in a recovery-- then I will most certainly believe him. However, I believe it is hard to determine how long this recovery will take, I think the worst is over (2008 financial crisis), yet we still will probably remain stagnant for quite a while before we truly begin to see larger upswings in stocks and decreases in unemployment.
I believe I remember Buffet saying we were in a recovery last year, but nothing has really changed.
If you count positive growth/economic expansion as a recovery then we were in a recovery late last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo
I believe I remember Buffet saying we were in a recovery last year, but nothing has really changed.
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