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Old 10-01-2011, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,003,876 times
Reputation: 19288

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Am I freaking awesome or what?

You can spin it anyway you want, but the numbers don't lie. All the numbers I've been playing with for the last several years all said the same thing, no recovery in the housing market until at least 2020.

Quote:
Housing Prices Unlikely to Recover Before 2020, FICO Survey Finds

73% of bankers surveyed see elevated level of mortgage foreclosures for at least five years


MINNEAPOLIS—September 30, 2011—FICO’s latest quarterly survey of bank risk professionals offered a decidedly pessimistic outlook, reversing the growing optimism seen in late 2010 and early 2011. The survey, conducted for FICO by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association (PRMIA), shows that bankers expect delinquencies on consumer loans to rise, underwriting standards to become stricter, and the housing sector to continue struggling far into the future.

No recovery in sight for beleaguered housing sector
When asked if housing prices nationally would climb back to 2007 levels before the year 2020, 49 percent of respondents said no. By comparison, 21 percent said yes. And the negative sentiment extended beyond property values. Among bankers surveyed, 73 percent believed mortgage defaults would remain elevated for at least five more years. Furthermore, 46 percent of respondents expected mortgage delinquencies to increase over the next six months, and only 15 percent of respondents believed mortgage delinquencies will decline during that period.

Housing Prices Unlikely to Recover Before 2020, FICO Survey Finds

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CNBC Mobile Home
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Old 10-01-2011, 02:05 PM
 
2,515 posts, read 1,823,935 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Am I freaking awesome or what?

You can spin it anyway you want, but the numbers don't lie. All the numbers I've been playing with for the last several years all said the same thing, no recovery in the housing market until at least 2020.



Housing Prices Unlikely to Recover Before 2020, FICO Survey Finds

Also:

CNBC Mobile Home
There is a big unless: Unless you up the minimum wage a lot. If you bump the minimum wage to $30 hr then you will see the price of houses going up sooner than ten years from now.
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Old 10-01-2011, 02:22 PM
 
10,494 posts, read 24,454,411 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newonecoming2 View Post
There is a big unless: Unless you up the minimum wage a lot. If you bump the minimum wage to $30 hr then you will see the price of houses going up sooner than ten years from now.
That would never happen.
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Old 10-01-2011, 02:23 PM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,218,185 times
Reputation: 4788
How is that a big unless?

A completely retarded theory championed by one guy on CityData forums despite futile attempts by others to explain the foolishness of it is a "big unless" for the nation's housing market?

That doesn't qualify as a big unless.
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Old 10-01-2011, 02:42 PM
 
2,515 posts, read 1,823,935 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
How is that a big unless?

A completely retarded theory championed by one guy on CityData forums despite futile attempts by others to explain the foolishness of it is a "big unless" for the nation's housing market?

That doesn't qualify as a big unless.
Part of why it has been said that the idea is stupid is THAT IT WILL CAUSE THE PICE OF EVERYTHING TO GO UP. That includes the price of houses. As long as the price of houses is going down the economy will suck.


As far as explaining why it is foolish Go ahead. Higher prices means people spend now not later. Lower prices means people spend later not now. Prices going up means people spend money now. Falling prices mean people spend money later not now. Spending money now means full employment. Spending money later means high unemployment. Is this foolishness? The single biggest thing people buy is their house.


I am foolish in thinking that I can explain to fools that we are headed in the wrong direction economically. That things will only get worse not better fort eh next 10 years or so unless we change the direction things are going. We need true inflation. What we have is stagflation.
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Old 10-01-2011, 07:04 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
16,336 posts, read 18,304,582 times
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Key point being "recovery" meaning 2007 levels, or peak price levels. Case-Schiller 20 is at about 140 now, and in 2007 it was about 200. A "recovery" would mean a roughly 43% appreciation in home values by 2020. So, yeah, that doesn't surprise me that most people don't expect to see a 43% appreciation in home prices in the next 8 years.
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Old 10-01-2011, 07:18 PM
 
5,410 posts, read 10,353,149 times
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Sooooo . . . . Professor Mircea.

You called things down and downer. Fair enough. Would have tended to agree.

However, a vector has both Direction and Magnitude.

So getting the direction correct is only half the game.

Magnitude is lacking.

How far down does this submarine go -- at least before imploding?
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Old 10-02-2011, 01:49 AM
 
33,031 posts, read 24,068,008 times
Reputation: 8993
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Am I freaking awesome or what?

You can spin it anyway you want, but the numbers don't lie. All the numbers I've been playing with for the last several years all said the same thing, no recovery in the housing market until at least 2020.

Then why is the rent too damn high?
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Old 10-02-2011, 03:37 AM
 
Location: Vallejo
16,336 posts, read 18,304,582 times
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Because you didn't elect Jimmy McMillian.

Honestly, American's are funny when it comes to housing prices. We don't have a damn clue how cheap our housing really is, especially when compared with our incomes.
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Old 10-02-2011, 01:06 PM
 
48,508 posts, read 88,682,201 times
Reputation: 18188
Of course the housing market is going to recover fast but the housing market will recover because of simple math ;the numbers needing hosuing while there is few being built. Already mnay areas are seeing rental prices increase and new reantal being built because we are likely to enter a normal ownership even in recovery meaning more will rent. The histroical average of 65% of homeeownership is what even treasuruy says we need to return to.
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