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The second half of the great depression is headed our way.
I don't follow you. Even if we agree for the sake of argument that very bad things are "headed our way", why do you call those things "the second half of the great depression"? What is it about the years following 1929 which was incomplete and should be thought of as the "first half" of something? In what way is the "second half" of that coming up on us now? I look forward to your explanation.
I don't follow you. Even if we agree for the sake of argument that very bad things are "headed our way", why do you call those things "the second half of the great depression"? What is it about the years following 1929 which was incomplete and should be thought of as the "first half" of something? In what way is the "second half" of that coming up on us now? I look forward to your explanation.
The only reason a continuation of the Great Depression was averted was because of World War II which left most of the U.S.'s competition decimated.
As the world started come back online in regards to production and sales we increasingly saw harder and harder times.
To avert that we started lowering taxes and deregulating large sectors of the economy which "set them free" but also had their side effects.
When that started to falter we started increasing the debt and increasing the F.I.R.E. economy which was really nothing more than a farce and a big giant credit bubble which we pretended would never end even in the face of massive amounts of debt.
Now, we have all that debt and we have social programs and military conquest that require constant expansion and either taking on more and more debt or cutting them back drastically.
We have the choice to make things bad or make things really bad and each and every time as far as I can tell we've made the choice to make things really really bad.
At some point we're going to get cutoff as far as debt goes. Is it 120% of GDP. 140% of GDP? Well that all depends on how much of the resources we control and when BRIC starts really trading in other currencies besides the petro-dollar.
Who know when that'll happen but we do know it's already starting to happen and I think what you'll see is a continuing of military conquest which will seem to never end and that's about the only thing keeping the rest of the world from abandoning 315 million locust.
I don't follow you. Even if we agree for the sake of argument that very bad things are "headed our way", why do you call those things "the second half of the great depression"?
The total debt coming down as % GDP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider
What is it about the years following 1929 which was incomplete and should be thought of as the "first half" of something?
total debt going up as % GDP
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider
In what way is the "second half" of that coming up on us now? I look forward to your explanation.
If you look at the years following the peak total debt as % GDP that was the really hard time in the great depression. That debt pay down, write off time is what really set up the post WWII economic boom time. The cost of doing business was low because the total debt was low.
The old story goes you can't get there from here. We need too write off as bad 90% of the total debt or inflate away 2/3 of the value of the debt to get to a place where we can have really sustained economic growth, as in what happened after WWII.
Time spent under the curve gets you time spent over the curve. This isn't the best graph that I've seen Others show the post WWII boom better. The long time we have spent above the curve has set up the need to spend time under the curve.
Or has it?
Time spent under the curve reshapes the economy. If you accept the need to do this then it should be possible to reshape the economy as we spend time above the curve.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
Arguments can be made for any view of the future you want.
The reality is things not even on the radar make whatever we think will happen the wrong prediction.
Like finding a black swan did to the paradigm that there was no change.
Looks like the only two he was relatively close on were oil and gas prices.
Hey, 2 out of 6 ain't bad! (oh wait, yes it is) But still a year to go, I guess. Anything can happen...
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