My 2013 predictions... (insurance, purchase, sell, tax)

[EmeraldCityWanderer]

Originally Posted by pie_row

There are several other thing that need to be done to get the economy on an even keel. I have taught myself a bit of economics with the time I've spent trying to get the economy fixed. A job at McDee's isn't in the offing for me. But that doesn't mean that I haven't put a lot of effort into getting a job.

That was what I was expecting in riling you a bit, but not really so obvious.

There are thousands of people who have done more then scratch the surface of economics who are in the process of trying to fix things in balance. You are asking people to trust the plan of yours, written by some one who thinks education is terrible (seemingly because of failure) and cannot get work at McDonalds, over the ideas of people who dedicated their lives to the subject. People like Paul Krugman, a man who I dislike for his policies, but I respect that he has the knowledge and the experience to at least have a seat at the table to have a discussion.

I say this only a little bit to insult you because you have provided zero proof (in hypothesis, mathematics, or even conjecture) that what you say is right. You just expect other people to take what you say as true because...well you really believe it. I am sorry for your disability, but many people have surmounted those disabilities to learn and become experienced in fields they are very passionate about instead of just spouting nonsense.

I would trust my car to people with more knowledge of what they are doing for just an oil change then your type of fiddling. Let alone the state of a national economy and economic ideas.

Originally Posted by pie_row

IQ is measured by word knowledge. They are being taught that that they are dumb.

Reading has a slight correlation on certain versions of the test, but there are ways around it very easily. The smartest guy I know is barely functionally literate and has worked at NASA on a team building rockets for a decade. IQ is not a main determinate of making money, nor are written IQ tests the be all and end all of life.

Don't assign your failure on written tests to others unless you have very good proof that what you say is true.

[pie_row]

Originally Posted by Ollie1946

I am at a loss to understand how raising the minimum wage changes anything. Prices go up and people who are paid minimum wage advance exactly nowhere.

Upping the minimum wage far enough to restructure the nations debts is unlike anything that has been done before with the exception of changing the value of gold back in the 1930's. Most of what people say about it is about small increases not large ones.

Originally Posted by Ollie1946

A major part of our problem is unsolvable and that is demographics.

The problem with demographics is this. If a small number of people are going to support a large number of people buy working then they need to be paid a lot of money.

Originally Posted by Ollie1946

There are far too many people (boomers) who are graduating into social security and medicare. Clark Howard had a special on radio yesterday on this issue and it was excellent. SS can be made well but medicare cannot be.

The fix for Medicare is to reduce the cost of health care. Changing the ratio of workers income to doctors income. Upping the minimum wage but not letting doctors pay go up as much.

Originally Posted by Ollie1946

The numbers are simply too big. Slashing this one main entitlement is the way to go. The US cannot grow its way out of this.

Cut the pay of the medical establishment. Make it more effissiont.

Originally Posted by Ollie1946

That possibility has gone to Asia. It isn't coming back. An economy such as ours that depends on the internal combustion engine whereby anyone needing one to get to a job or anywhere else is hammered by high fuel costs. That isn't going to get better either.

I have in the works a 600 mpg vehicle. At that level bio fuel looks good.

Originally Posted by Ollie1946

Voters, especially Boomers, are not going to accept diminished Medicare. It has to be changed in a draconian way or else. We cannot survive the "else".

Restructuring the wage structure. We need full employment. And we need the lowest paid worker making $30 an hr. That will take a swing at medicare.

Originally Posted by Ollie1946

"Start a new political party". Really? Like that hasn't been attempted quite a few times and every time has been crushed by the donkey and the elephant. Won't happen. Pipe dream. Fantasy.

OK I have more faith in this system than you do. Pipe dream or not, fantasy or not. If you don't try then they have already won.

Originally Posted by Ollie1946

This is one time where democracy cannot work. It isn't working.

Give it a shot. I've been plugging away at getting a job for 6 years. I haven't given up don't you give up as well. We need reform that is true but we have the mechanism to do it.

Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer

That was what I was expecting in riling you a bit, but not really so obvious.

There are thousands of people who have done more then scratch the surface of economics who are in the process of trying to fix things in balance. You are asking people to trust the plan of yours, written by some one who thinks education is terrible (seemingly because of failure) and cannot get work at McDonalds, over the ideas of people who dedicated their lives to the subject. People like Paul Krugman, a man who I dislike for his policies, but I respect that he has the knowledge and the experience to at least have a seat at the table to have a discussion.

Here is a metaphor. Back in high school my geometry teacher said to my mom that he was teaching me geometry but that I was teaching him geometry theory. I hated writing out proofs as what I was saying was just so obvious and plane. Three of four years of casual study on my part runs close to a PhD by others. I don't have the breath of knowledge that an MBA will give you but for what I am interested in I tend to go very deep. That is Asperger's. What drives Asperger's and the Autistic spectrum is an over concentration of local connections in the brain and an under concentration in long distance connection. Where you have those connections and where you don't determines where you are in that spectrum. I can't write. I copy down what I would say word for word. The proof of what I have been spouting is good enough for a PhD thesis in economics. My head isn't wired for doing that proof and I've got many other more pressing things on my plate to take the time out to get proficient enough to accomplish the task. It would take several years of hard work to be able to do it. I'm 45 I don't have the time left to do this sorry.

Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer

I say this only a little bit to insult you because you have provided zero proof (in hypothesis, mathematics, or even conjecture) that what you say is right. You just expect other people to take what you say as true because...well you really believe it. I am sorry for your disability, but many people have surmounted those disabilities to learn and become experienced in fields they are very passionate about instead of just spouting nonsense.

I would trust my car to people with more knowledge of what they are doing for just an oil change then your type of fiddling. Let alone the state of a national economy and economic ideas.



Reading has a slight correlation on certain versions of the test, but there are ways around it very easily. The smartest guy I know is barely functionally literate and has worked at NASA on a team building rockets for a decade. IQ is not a main determinate of making money, nor are written IQ tests the be all and end all of life.

No they aren't but...

Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer

Don't assign your failure on written tests to others unless you have very good proof that what you say is true.

QED the random variation in genetics doesn't support a 50% illiteracy rate in one part of the human population when you have 98% literacy in other parts of the population in the same language. This is based on a random sampling.

[pvande55]

Enact policies to enhance demand for labor and wage rates will improve. I don't mean ridiculous things like requiring elevators to have operators and bowling lanes to have pinsetters but eliminate tax credits for moving jobs outside the country and more infrastructure spending, as well as build the pipeline.

[shaker281]

Originally Posted by bchris02

2013 is going to be the year the crap hits the fan for the US economy. Everybody's worst case fears from 2009 will come true in 2013. This is going to be one tough year for America and will be the beginning of the complete collapse of the US economy. Here are a few things I predict just this year.

-We go over the fiscal cliff: Dow 9000 at least by February.
-A new farm bill is not passed - food prices more than double in January
-In Q2 and Q3 we will average between 700,000 and 1,100,000 job losses per month
-Dow 4000 by September
-Oil spike initially as people pull their money out of stocks and into commodities, but a spectacular crash during the second half of the year taking oil down to $50/bbl
-Unemployment above 20% by year end (with real unemployment over 30%)
-Riots and civil unrest in many cities across the country
-Most chain big box and grocery stores will disappear. High end luxury retailers will also go bankrupt. Most malls will become ghost malls. Wal-Mart will be the last man standing

Get ready for the worst year for the US economy since 1930.

2013 will however be a better year than 2014 and 2015 in which near all out civil war will break loose as American society completely collapses around us.

If we were neighbors I would challenge you to bet me on the basis of your predictions. I would enjoy spending your money on beer!

My predictions:

-Dow 14000 by February, Dow 16,000 by September.
-Unemployment 7.5% by years end.
-Oil remains at $90-100 a barrel, controlled by OPEC.
-Farmers will get their tax dollars which is a travesty, since the majority of the money goes to the wealthiest farmers and direct payment subsidies are provided without regard to the economic need of the recipients or the financial condition of the farm economy. Direct payments of subsidies are set at $40,000 per person or $80,000 per couple.
-Ethanol subsidies will continue to drive much higher food costs.
-Nothing else you posted will actually happen.

Get ready for the best year of the economy since 1999.

[shaker281]

Originally Posted by DSOs

...Waiver/reduce 10% withdrawal penalty for tax-deferred retirement accounts.

That would only encourage the folks who pull funds from their 401K to pull even more money for all the wrong reasons. Now that they have used their home equity as an ATM, why encourage them to spend their retirement funds while incurring income tax they cannot pay as well?

[shaker281]

Originally Posted by Escort Rider

After six days and 28 posts by other people, the OP has not once returned to his own thread. Perhaps he is enjoying his own hilarity at our expense. This may be his plan: Post something outrageous which has no rational underpinning, then sit back and watch others rise to the bait.

By all means, please do revive this thread a year from now.

Agreed on both points!

[back2M]

Sounds like you better move to another country then, how bout Nigeria?

[LargeKingCat]

I predict that the Asteroid will be averted by Aliens who will land and enslave the human race

I predict that a Sasquatch will appear in Washington and reveal that Obama is one of them....

OK Get the point? Some of the predictions I hear are about on that level of silliness.

What I predict is that I will make money. I will do this Legally, and regardless of tax laws, markets, bond prices or whatever. I always have and always will.

That is because I do not Panic, I do not buy into panic, despair, or anything that distracts me from my goals.

OK markets fluctuate. Some of us realize that, and instead of crying , we invest in Kleenex and sell it at an inflated cost to the crybabies who lost money that week.

Anyone can cry, blame the president, congress, the IRS, the governement, the economy, the War, the CHinese, the Aliens etc on their failures, OR you can do as I do, look at the rules of the game and find a way to win within those rules.

Time to man up.

[DSOs]

Originally Posted by DSOs

...Waiver/reduce 10% withdrawal penalty for tax-deferred retirement accounts

Good point, but we’re beyond that reasoning IMHO. Think about what’s going on here: Taxes are going up on most everyone while now-needed funds are unreachable for people that may need it to pay basic bills. Worse, the USGov’t/Taxpayer are now supplying expensive, multi-leveled subsidies to able-bodied people who may/probably have money in their 401ks.

Let’s take the $600?/person Bush tax cut (2004?) as an example. There was serious concern that the populace would save it or pay down debt—the financial apparatus/economists’ doesn’t want the populace to use the money responsibly! Dubiously, they’re expecting the USGov’t/Taxpayer to subsidize food/shelter/the health of the citizenry while they profit from tax-deferred retirement plans & an inflationary playing field.

Supposition/assumption: The 10% withdrawal penalty was designed to help the financial apparatus control the money/deferred taxes!

[pie_row]

How To Profit From The Impending Bursting Of The Education Bubble, pt 1 - A Bubble Bigger Than Subprime & More Dangerous Than Sovereign Debt!
Some interesting reading on the state of education in America