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I'm not sure I can agree that increased demand is purely for the essentials. It depends on how expansively you define essentials. I would call them food, water, shelter.
Some people certainly are downsizing, and I think there are a few reasons for that:
1) Some people bought bigger than they needed in an era of easy credit.
2) A lot of boomers' kids no longer live at home, so a 3-5 bedroom residence seems an unnecessary extravagance (or even a hassle).
3) Lower living costs provide more discretionary spending money.
People are buying more efficient cars:
1) To save on fuel.
2) Because of incentives for more efficient cars.
If middle class people where you live are cutting back at this point--late 2014, then you are probably living in one of the areas most dependent on housing for its economy that has not recovered as well as other parts of the country. Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Illinois, Michigan--these states have been particularly slow to recover.
As for jobs, unemployment has fallen back under 6%, which is a significant milestone, and it has been steadily falling for years. U-6 unemployment, a broader measure of underemployment and unemployment, is also steadily falling (unemployment is also typically a trailing indicator, so you expect to see unemployment fall after you see, for example, the stock market rise.
OK so now I gather for you we are looking at bright positive futures. I am always for positivity, I have never been a negative person and I believe that my success both through trial and error have proven so.
As positive as I am and want to be, I just don't see how we can escape either high inflation or a deflationary period. We have millions on the dole that is unsustainable, we have no manufacturing decreasing slope since NAFTA, we have a growing immigration problem that I will for argument sake stay positive on for the purpose of spending, we have the highest corporate tax rates in the world as seen with Burger King fleeing among thousands of others that have not been shown on the MS news outlets, we have an increasing squeeze from all angles with big government, we have been attacking small business for 6 solid years and trying to live on just big business which is only 20% max of employees. We have a healthcare problem, we have what I think a bigger problem moving forward with the increasing European issue on non working immigration. If Europe falls won't America go down with it?
The highly inflated market over the years, which cannot continue this growth in my opinion. Perhaps you think the DOW will hit 20k? From what, technology?
Something has to give? What will it be?
Last edited by zinctwentyone; 10-06-2014 at 05:18 PM..
Reason: correction
Federal unemployment rates have never reflected real numbers of people out of work. Right now fewer than 48% of adults in our nation are employed. This is the lowest percentage in half a century. These people are not paying taxes. Instead, they collect something called an "earned income credit". That's three lies in one phrase.
Amateur demographers will point to the permanently disabled, our prison population and other groups in that 52% of adults of "working age". I work full time and I'm beyond the average retirement age. (I like to eat.)
Bank reserves may appear to be rising. Deposits by account holders are declining. Those so-called reserves are authorizations by the Fed to lend from an empty vault. This fraudulent lending permit can in no way be called a legitimate reserve.
Do not be fooled by the pump and dump guys in the stock market. The "Dow Jones" is the total of the recent high sales prices of 30 stocks. The official name is the "Dow Jones Industrial Average". Once upon a time those 30 companies were manufacturers. Now many of these companies are bankers, companies like Disney, Visa, Verizon, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and American Express. It includes retailers Like Home Depot and McDonalds. The few real manufacturers have had declining share values so far this year with two months to go.
Federal unemployment rates have never reflected real numbers of people out of work. Right now fewer than 48% of adults in our nation are employed. This is the lowest percentage in half a century. These people are not paying taxes. Instead, they collect something called an "earned income credit". That's three lies in one phrase.
Amateur demographers will point to the permanently disabled, our prison population and other groups in that 52% of adults of "working age". I work full time and I'm beyond the average retirement age. (I like to eat.)
Bank reserves may appear to be rising. Deposits by account holders are declining. Those so-called reserves are authorizations by the Fed to lend from an empty vault. This fraudulent lending permit can in no way be called a legitimate reserve.
Do not be fooled by the pump and dump guys in the stock market. The "Dow Jones" is the total of the recent high sales prices of 30 stocks. The official name is the "Dow Jones Industrial Average". Once upon a time those 30 companies were manufacturers. Now many of these companies are bankers, companies like Disney, Visa, Verizon, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and American Express. It includes retailers Like Home Depot and McDonalds. The few real manufacturers have had declining share values so far this year with two months to go.
What manufactures are you referring to with declining values?
OK so now I gather for you we are looking at bright positive futures. I am always for positivity, I have never been a negative person and I believe that my success both through trial and error have proven so.
As positive as I am and want to be, I just don't see how we can escape either high inflation or a deflationary period. We have millions on the dole that is unsustainable, we have no manufacturing decreasing slope since NAFTA, we have a growing immigration problem that I will for argument sake stay positive on for the purpose of spending, we have the highest corporate tax rates in the world as seen with Burger King fleeing among thousands of others that have not been shown on the MS news outlets, we have an increasing squeeze from all angles with big government, we have been attacking small business for 6 solid years and trying to live on just big business which is only 20% max of employees. We have a healthcare problem, we have what I think a bigger problem moving forward with the increasing European issue on non working immigration. If Europe falls won't America go down with it?
The highly inflated market over the years, which cannot continue this growth in my opinion. Perhaps you think the DOW will hit 20k? From what, technology?
Something has to give? What will it be?
Inflation: It looks modest now. The fed is gradually reversing its expansionary policies, and will adjust as needed.
Manufacturing: GDP increases say the economy is recovering.
Corporate tax burden: all told, quite modest. A high nominal tax rate does not mean high taxes, as deductions, credits, and deferrals can work wonders. Business is global; plenty of foreign corporations are opening offices in the US, as well.
Immigration: Manageable; immigration has been a fact of life even before the conception of the United States. It is not occurring at overwhelming levels by any stretch.
"Dole": Most benefit programs benefit people who work. The size of benefit programs (other than medicare, down the road) is manageable.
Europe: Not falling--they need a little more action from the ECB, but Europe is not crumbling by any stretch. Europe's main problem has been a lack of central monetary policy and an austerity response to the Great Recession. I expect they will figure it out.
Federal unemployment rates have never reflected real numbers of people out of work. Right now fewer than 48% of adults in our nation are employed. This is the lowest percentage in half a century. These people are not paying taxes. Instead, they collect something called an "earned income credit". That's three lies in one phrase.
And funny enough the idea that you get a "earned income credit" with no income is also a lie.
In fact lets qoute a requirement form the irs website:
Quote:
Must have earned income, such as wages, tips or the income from running a business or farm. Most other types of income, such as retirement pensions, though usually taxable, do not count as earned income;
Federal unemployment rates have never reflected real numbers of people out of work. Right now fewer than 48% of adults in our nation are employed. This is the lowest percentage in half a century. These people are not paying taxes. Instead, they collect something called an "earned income credit". That's three lies in one phrase.
Amateur demographers will point to the permanently disabled, our prison population and other groups in that 52% of adults of "working age". I work full time and I'm beyond the average retirement age. (I like to eat.)
You mean retirees and stay-at home parents? Your numbers are off. Over the age of 16, about 37% of people are not participating in the labor force. The 6% of unemployed are in the labor force, which means that ~57% of people over 16 have work.
There are ~35 million people over age 65 in the US. That is approximately 14% of the civilian, non-institutionalized population. You would hope that most of those people to fall into the group of adults who are unemployed. Assuming, momentarily, that they all do, then of the non-retiree age, civilian, non-institutionalized population, about 67% are working (strictly a back of the napkin calculation). That sounds a lot less outrageous.
You mean retirees and stay-at home parents? Your numbers are off. Over the age of 16, about 37% of people are not participating in the labor force. The 6% of unemployed are in the labor force, which means that ~57% of people over 16 have work.
There are ~35 million people over age 65 in the US. That is approximately 14% of the civilian, non-institutionalized population. You would hope that most of those people to fall into the group of adults who are unemployed. Assuming, momentarily, that they all do, then of the non-retiree age, civilian, non-institutionalized population, about 67% are working (strictly a back of the napkin calculation). That sounds a lot less outrageous.
I have come to the conclusion that you must be working, do you also comment on the Huff post or just here? There is no way someone would battle this topic with such fierceness and throw all these domogog numbers.
You got fake numbers, the real numbers are millions of prime aged men out of work currently. The democrats are full of crap, and put out fake Soros style numbers to ease the pain of the weak minded folks that listen to this sort of spewing. They back them with all sorts of lies and garbage.
How long did it take you to find the 35 million over 65. Please stop skewing a real conversation for the sake of upcoming elections. Your arguments are all baseless junk. Arguing that my article is 6 months old is ridiculous. It is even worse now and you still haven't answered the question on where do you think this going?
I don't know... seems plenty are spending like no tomorrow here in the SF Bay Area... sales in just about all catagories are up and Real Estate has really gone up... especially higher priced properties.
Bay Area is a big beneficiary of capital markets as you know. I've read the 20 % of the average Googler's pay is derived from the stock and option part of his compensation plan. Plenty of other places like the Northeast Corridor are dependent on financial markets for a big part of the income. The high end of the real estate market in the DC area was just starting to tank in late 2008 when the markets were rescued. We never quite got the full washout like the exurbs where the buildout produced a huge glut.
As for labor participation, it's to be expected that they'll fall as 3.8 million boomers hit age 65 each year. You can see the difference in the labor participation rates by age:
On the bright side, the age groups below 25 are supposed to be just as large as the boomer cohort, largely due to immigration policies. In another 5 to 10 years, they'll start to enter the labor market.
Last edited by lchoro; 10-07-2014 at 06:58 AM..
Reason: unemp rates
"What manufactures are you referring to with declining values?"
Glad you asked. So far this year, Boeing, Chevron, IBM, GE, Phizer, 3M and United Technologies are down. Those are manufacturers.
The biggest gainers are Microsoft and Intel. They are service companies providing software upgrades for aging systems. Nike is up, but they do no manufacturing in the USA. The only hard manufacturer on the Dow that is up is Caterpillar. One real manufacturer up year to date in October is not good news.
ichoro imagines:
"On the bright side, the age groups below 25 are supposed to be just as large as the boomer cohort, largely due to immigration policies. In another 5 to 10 years, they'll start to enter the labor market."
This is not a bright side. We have another 27 months of open borders with Obama in place.
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