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Old 12-14-2014, 11:04 AM
 
Location: State of Transition
102,211 posts, read 107,931,771 times
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What deflation? You mean, gas prices? That's a good thing. It'll bring grocery prices down a bit, back toward where they belong. Theoretically.
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Old 12-14-2014, 11:08 AM
 
7,899 posts, read 7,113,478 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Really? are you a stock broker, or just someone that doesn't see that headlight coming down the tracks.
So when is the train due to hit? And if you are wrong you will admit it and stop with the gloom and doom predictions?
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Old 12-14-2014, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Michigan
4,647 posts, read 8,602,317 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
i just saw .99 cent grapes . i have seen them as high as 5 bucks because of weather.


lots of things have gone done since food is more about the weather,strikes ,supply and demand and non money supply related issues...

inflation is weighted in the cpi with areas you spend the most bucks counted heavier than areas we spend the least.

housing and energy consume the biggest share of the median income .

while your area may have seen rents rise many areas are still less than they were 5 years ago.

energy costs are the lowest in 5 years.


the typical american family spends more on debt service than food and no question rates are down on just about everything.
Yea, in areas with shrinking job employment. The Shiller index shows plenty of major cities above where they were 5 years ago.

And if this is a deflationary cycle, there should be a lot more layoffs since many companies would see lots of declining profits. There should be obvious evidence of broad based decline in the economy yet the opposite seems apparent.
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Old 12-14-2014, 01:24 PM
 
150 posts, read 173,754 times
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The system has already collapsed, it's just a corpse on a ventilator.

Reduce your dependencies however you can, and get physical gold outside of the system because that's the only form of financial wealth which is going to survive.
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Old 12-14-2014, 01:43 PM
 
7,899 posts, read 7,113,478 times
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Originally Posted by randomman View Post
The system has already collapsed, it's just a corpse on a ventilator.

Reduce your dependencies however you can, and get physical gold outside of the system because that's the only form of financial wealth which is going to survive.
Sounds like you are a bit behind on taking your meds.

If not let me know when the system is going to die. Then afterwards we will know for sure you were wrong again.
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Old 12-14-2014, 01:44 PM
 
106,679 posts, read 108,856,202 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by animatedmartian View Post
Yea, in areas with shrinking job employment. The Shiller index shows plenty of major cities above where they were 5 years ago.

And if this is a deflationary cycle, there should be a lot more layoffs since many companies would see lots of declining profits. There should be obvious evidence of broad based decline in the economy yet the opposite seems apparent.
we are not deflationary yet . we are just low inflation based on the fact big expense areas like housing are flat to down in many areas.

the cpi measures 1500 different mini economies in this country. yours may be different and is the reason the cpi is only a price index comparison and in no way reflects your actual cost of living.
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Old 12-14-2014, 02:05 PM
 
610 posts, read 699,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordSquidworth View Post
The FED hasn't given up.

Fear of deflation is only in your head.

/thread
This.

And also why are falling prices bad? I'd love to pay less for everything everywhere.
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Old 12-14-2014, 02:19 PM
 
106,679 posts, read 108,856,202 times
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why? because with deflation goes your pay level and possibly your job. the drop in pay and investments generally is greater than the savings. that is why depressions are so bad. japan is stuck in their deflationary spiral for 30 years now.

inflation is far easier to break than a deflationary spiral.

the great depression saw the cpi fall 18% while if you even had a job, pay cuts were in the 40-50% range.
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Old 12-14-2014, 04:33 PM
 
5,760 posts, read 11,548,273 times
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Talking some on the Texas site where things go down to.

Oil wise.

As far as the start point and comparisons to the Great Depression parallel to the Great Recession. Neither were over with the starting Collapse. All the Recovery Programs buoyed things up this time, but those are about done. When the supports went off in 1936 . . . 1937 was a rough year. On a World Wide basis, it ended with WW2.

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Old 12-14-2014, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Michigan
4,647 posts, read 8,602,317 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
we are not deflationary yet . we are just low inflation based on the fact big expense areas like housing are flat to down in many areas.

the cpi measures 1500 different mini economies in this country. yours may be different and is the reason the cpi is only a price index comparison and in no way reflects your actual cost of living.
But consumers are not spending less on housing. Investors are.

When housing was at rock bottom prices, investors bought in and held on to property waiting for prices to rise. At the same time, credit is tight and a large percentage of home buyers are making all-cash offers. On top of that, new construction is low also due to tight credit which means inventory is being gobbled up quickly which shoots up prices.

As investors release their real estate back into the market, prices should expectedly fall back down or stay flat as that same housing is then quickly (or less than quickly) gobbled up by individual consumers. If consumers are not buying those homes, then prices should be falling a lot farther than they have been.
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