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Location: Central Atlantic Region, though consults worldwide
266 posts, read 450,103 times
Reputation: 95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wartrace
I don't know where the earnings growth will come from.
I hear ya Wartrace.
However, I think the stage seems set favoring foriegn money flooding US markets. If so, PEs will go through the roof. Almost makes me think mid-long term distant, middle ground, in the money options may be a reasonable place to be. I'll first wait to see what happens the end of January, should be interesting.
baby boomers stand to inherit a trillion dollars , foreign money , and the fact we are the best house in the worst neighborhood will attract money from all over the world.
the negatives are low rates are tied to dividend rates and dividend rates traditionally account for 1/3 the markets gains so9 that points to about 6% returns non inflation adjusted. .
so my guess is we are looking at growth but likely sub average growth for 5 to 10 years out perhaps.
Location: Central Atlantic Region, though consults worldwide
266 posts, read 450,103 times
Reputation: 95
Near term 18,000 will either be the top of the Dow or damn close.
A relief rally in oil is overdue though I think unsustainable. I expect crude to bottom between $40 and $50 a barrel, touching in the 30s likely.
ISIS gaining ground with mistreated poorer Saudis'. So much for the royalty...
NY Time said the $710T derivatives (~15% oil) just keeps coming back - more the heart of the matter than banks wish to admit. Months ago, oil companies transferred serious risk to the banks . All in all, looks to be another 2007/08 in the works.
Could global matters worsen with 1.43 Euro hitting 1.17 seemingly to plunge more? Despite being about time, odds are, Yep!
Here we go again with another over-leveraged situation toddling about as a drunken sailor walking the anchorline. Batten down the hatches! Another QE framework to dig from this new mess further devalue the buck.
Foreign money and a major correction might look pretty good.
baby boomers stand to inherit a trillion dollars , foreign money , and the fact we are the best house in the worst neighborhood will attract money from all over the world.
the negatives are low rates are tied to dividend rates and dividend rates traditionally account for 1/3 the markets gains so9 that points to about 6% returns non inflation adjusted. .
so my guess is we are looking at growth but likely sub average growth for 5 to 10 years out perhaps.
I agree with this. Historically low growth and returns, but perhaps for an extended period. Which may not be a bad thing, as I am a bit tired of bubbles bursting!
Today's blast from the past comes from 3.5 years ago when the stock market was 45% lower, and a common argument of the doomsdayers was that once QE stopped or interest rates were raised the stock market would crash. Interest rates have been raised 6 times since then, and of course QE ended years ago.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Had this market cycle been built on organic growth based on sound economic fundamentals instead of the pump and dump policies of the Fed we would be looking at an entirely different situation. All you need to do is to look at a chart of the market since QE ended to see how it's momentum is completely stalled.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Fundamentally, markets require a constant supply of new buyers to go up. That supply of new buyers was being artificially manufactured by 85 billion per month in printing by the Fed which was a fraud from the beginning and is now discontinued. Now the market must exist on it's own fundamentals which are very problematic. The commodities markets are reflecting exactly where the economy really is. Ignore what they are telling you at your own peril.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Now that the drug the economy has been addicted to has been withdrawn, you are seeing the markets reeling with volatility and unable to maintain any sort of positive momentum. This will only get worse as the bond market begins to reel from the defaults in the oil sector as smaller companies cannot cope with prices below break even.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Like I said before, if you believe the future is rosy, then put your money where your mouth is and stay fully invested. Just don't complain when you get your backside handed to you because you were warned.
If I remember correctly this poster had a long history of predicting economic collapse claiming he'd just gotten out of the market, yet never posts about getting back in. The amazing ability to always be in stocks profiting despite being wrong about the stock market for almost a decade straight.
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Dow To Hit 31,000 In 3 Years?
