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Things are truly great. New unemployment claims are the lowest in 15 years. Gas is under $2/gallon. Interest rates hover near historic lows. Venture money is out there for the asking.
For those of you too young to realize it, these are the good old days. It's time to get moving. If you don't make it now, you never will.
what still makes these less than great times is wage growth is way behind now for decades as well as older invested money has seen little growth in 15 years. a scant 1.77% real return the last 15 years from the s&p 500. older money that was anticipated to grow much more and should be available today to take advantage never grew..
all the good times in the world do not mean much when you have no money saved to enjoy the markets or have money saved so you can borrow low cost money to partake in ventures but have to make payments on the loans before pay dirt is hit.
we saw this in the great bull market of 1987 to 2003.
17 years of 14% gains on average, but going into that time frame things sucked. 20 years of under performing markets and high inflation depleted savings at a really fast rate and saving more was out of the question. all well in good that the greatest bull market in history was underway but few regular folks had any meaningful amounts to take advantage.
time frames are always dependent on the time frames before it as to who gets what benefit. it is easy to look at a particular time frame and go wow how great is this time frame.
but if the time frame leading up to it sucked there isn't much folks can afford to take advantage of when the ship comes in.
it is like sometimes the pier collapses by the time the ship gets there.
the biggest problem is while yeah gas is under 2 bucks a gallon , a bigger share of money is spent on housing costs and rents in many areas are soaring as well as the 2nd biggest expenditure is health care and that is sucking more and more money away negating anything a drop in gas did.
I think it is a bit to early to ring the bell. I will say things are a whole lot less bad but I will hold up at that .
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-31-2015 at 05:02 AM..
what still makes these less than great times is wage growth is way behind now for decades as well as older invested money has seen little growth in 15 years. a scant 1.77% real return the last 15 years from the s&p 500. older money that was anticipated to grow much more and should be available today to take advantage never grew..
all the good times in the world do not mean much when you have no money saved to enjoy the markets or have money saved so you can borrow low cost money to partake in ventures but have to make payments on the loans before pay dirt is hit.
we saw this in the great bull market of 1987 to 2003.
17 years of 14% gains on average, but going into that time frame things sucked. 20 years of under performing markets and high inflation depleted savings at a really fast rate and saving more was out of the question. all well in good that the greatest bull market in history was underway but few regular folks had any meaningful amounts to take advantage.
time frames are always dependent on the time frames before it as to who gets what benefit. it is easy to look at a particular time frame and go wow how great is this time frame.
but if the time frame leading up to it sucked there isn't much folks can afford to take advantage of when the ship comes in.
it is like sometimes the pier collapses by the time the ship gets there.
the biggest problem is while yeah gas is under 2 bucks a gallon , a bigger share of money is spent on housing costs and rents in many areas are soaring as well as the 2nd biggest expenditure is health care and that is sucking more and more money away negating anything a drop in gas did.
I think it is a bit to early to ring the bell. I will say things are a whole lot less bad but I will hold up at that .
Does this mean high gas prices are good for me?
No car = no gas pain
High gas prices = others have fewer dollars to spend on housing = rents restrained by ability to pay
none of those things directly translate into lifting all classes... especially the middle. Maybe in time if sustained for a clear trend.
Wages at the middle are fairly stagnant even though wage at the affluent level continuous to rise.
Employment is mostly at the lower end.
Gas prices have caused lost jobs in the oil imdustry... this is skilled labor at middle class.
I have not seen gas prices translate to lower prices in goods and services.
Education has continued to rise
Housing is still through the roof.
A data point don't indicate a trend. ... but I am hopeful. Maybe it's simply to early to have this discussion
On a personal note... I have not seen a raise in 5 years and they stopped matching 401k 2 years ago citing the economy.... so I am hopeful that another job is in my near future..
none of those things directly translate into lifting all classes... especially the middle. Maybe in time if sustained for a clear trend.
Wages at the middle are fairly stagnant even though wage at the affluent level continuous to rise.
Employment is mostly at the lower end.
Gas prices have caused lost jobs in the oil imdustry... this is skilled labor at middle class.
I have not seen gas prices translate to lower prices in goods and services.
Education has continued to rise
Housing is still through the roof.
A data point don't indicate a trend. ... but I am hopeful. Maybe it's simply to early to have this discussion
On a personal note... I have not seen a raise in 5 years and they stopped matching 401k 2 years ago citing the economy.... so I am hopeful that another job is in my near future..
Wages at the middle have been stagnant for 40 years. That's nothing new. The advantage of really good economic times like these is that people have a better chance to move out of the middle.
What lower gas prices do is provide a huge economic stimulus. Most people will look back after a year of low gas prices and realize that it was like lighting the afterburners on the US economy, but while it is actually happening they are clueless. The media won't get around to reporting it for months, and by that time the ability to get in on the ground floor will be gone. People who go looking for a new job a year from now will end up second or third tier hires.
Your problem is that your head is screwed on backwards. You are looking at the past instead of the future. The engines have ignited and we have liftoff. It's your choice to ride or get left on the ground.
I am cautiously optimistic - neither a cheerleader nor a curmudgeon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
time frames are always dependent on the time frames before it as to who gets what benefit. it is easy to look at a particular time frame and go wow how great is this time frame.
Indeed. Like others, I enjoyed spectacular returns in the 1990s. But even with >20%/year compounded, my working-capital was fairly modest. A decade later, negative returns - even slightly negative returns - were devastating. For people in the wealth-accumulation stage, the most recent returns matter most. Even so, good recent returns take considerable time before ameliorating and reversing the effects of bad returns in the not too distant past.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
You are looking at the past instead of the future. The engines have ignited and we have liftoff. It's your choice to ride or get left on the ground.
The past and the future are inseparable. We may indeed have "liftoff" - or not; it's too early to discern. 2009-present was a great time for the stock market, especially for US large-caps. But as Mathjak pointed out, we need another 5-years of substantial growth to heal the devastation of 2000-2009... especially overseas.
what still makes these less than great times is wage growth is way behind now for decades as well as older invested money has seen little growth in 15 years. a scant 1.77% real return the last 15 years from the s&p 500. older money that was anticipated to grow much more and should be available today to take advantage never grew..
all the good times in the world do not mean much when you have no money saved to enjoy the markets or have money saved so you can borrow low cost money to partake in ventures but have to make payments on the loans before pay dirt is hit.
we saw this in the great bull market of 1987 to 2003.
17 years of 14% gains on average, but going into that time frame things sucked. 20 years of under performing markets and high inflation depleted savings at a really fast rate and saving more was out of the question. all well in good that the greatest bull market in history was underway but few regular folks had any meaningful amounts to take advantage.
time frames are always dependent on the time frames before it as to who gets what benefit. it is easy to look at a particular time frame and go wow how great is this time frame.
but if the time frame leading up to it sucked there isn't much folks can afford to take advantage of when the ship comes in.
it is like sometimes the pier collapses by the time the ship gets there.
the biggest problem is while yeah gas is under 2 bucks a gallon , a bigger share of money is spent on housing costs and rents in many areas are soaring as well as the 2nd biggest expenditure is health care and that is sucking more and more money away negating anything a drop in gas did.
I think it is a bit to early to ring the bell. I will say things are a whole lot less bad but I will hold up at that .
I pretty much agree with your assessment. However, that doesn't mean people shouldn't make changes where they can. Even marginal changes add up over time. If they save $500 a year on gas because of lower prices, it should go into savings or investments. As far as health care goes, we'll never get a handle on health care costs as long as we maintain our current norm of eating processed foods full of sugar, salt, and saturated fat. We need to adopt a natural, plant based diet with minimal meat and processed foods or we might as well forget about it.
Things are truly great. New unemployment claims are the lowest in 15 years. Gas is under $2/gallon. Interest rates hover near historic lows. Venture money is out there for the asking.
For those of you too young to realize it, these are the good old days. It's time to get moving. If you don't make it now, you never will.
Low rates are only good if you are a borrower. Savers are hurt severely.
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