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"When will the market crash so this secular bear market will be over"
The fallacy is that after it crashes and you go all in at the bottom, it will crash again and establish a much lower bottom. And the first crash won't start till after it's up drastically from where it is now.
The whole purpose of the stock market is to turn geniuses into idiots. It's been a remarkably successful stock market.
"When will the market crash so this secular bear market will be over"
The fallacy is that after it crashes and you go all in at the bottom, it will crash again and establish a much lower bottom. And the first crash won't start till after it's up drastically from where it is now.
The whole purpose of the stock market is to turn geniuses into idiots. It's been a remarkably successful stock market.
I could care less. My net worth is strong. I can take all the hits it gives me. I want to throw money into a descending market since I know after that drop it will go into another secular bull. I am not fearful of bear markets. They just make me all the more aggressive.
Bull markets on the other hand make me uncomfortable. I'd rather see my money go down than up at this stage in the game since I know I'm not wasting money on an overvalued market.
If I ever saw a 8% drop in the market I'd probably drop a grand or two into it. I know there'd be a coming bear market but I'd know it would be a great time to throw it in anyway.
I refuse to buy at any amount above 2030 (SP 500). It just feels really uncomfortable to me since it feels we are peaking. I LOVE hearing bad financial news.
I know deep down inside I have a serious advantage over business analysts who only care for short term profits due to my long term outlook.
i said the same thing when the dow hit 2500 back in 1987. no way am i buying in at this level ha ha ha.
well we crashed and fell 26% in one session. if i don't tell the story , i wouldn't rember it even happened today.
i said the same thing when the dow hit 2500 back in 1987. no way am i buying in at this level ha ha ha
1987 was part of the secular bull. The 25% drop wouldn't intimidate me. I'd still be far wealthier than people my age and I would know that the money I added during the downturn would grow even faster.
We are still in the 2000 secular bear. They last approximately 16-18 years so we're not even close to done.
Historically, markets crash when credit mechanisms fail.
Back on the job we used an old fraud maxim: It's easy to turn money into paper. It is much more difficult to turn the paper back into money. That's when you catch the *********.
In this setting, you can turn money into paper by buying stock on credit (margin). When enough of the market is valued based upon the perceived value of the money spent to buy the stock rather than the real value of the underlyiing asset, it becomes an unstable market. Then any event could trigger a demand to turn the paper back into money (read: massive sell orders at the perceived value). The real value of the asset will rapidly re-emerge, and it will be much lower. Voila: a crash.
Like China's market is right now... all based on the perceived value of the money (credit) used to buy the stock.
Right now I wouldn't go there without a hard hat.
Edit: The board doesn't recognize the word for one who commits fraud. Picture the root word 'fraud' with the suffix -'ster and you've got the word the board censored out.
The FED is busy making good news. Betting against the FED's printing press is a loosing proposition. The FED is doing everything it can to keep the market up. So look for a combination of things that will force the FED's hand. If the FED raises rates then the market may come down. A bump in the real estate market. Something else.
Just so. Double digit asset inflation has been fueled by the Fed. They dumped over a trillion dollars into the economy and it had to go somewhere, so it mostly went into stocks, real estate and offshore bank accounts. We need a good currency crisis to get things back to normal. Unfortunately, the dollar continues to soar. We're stuck in a financial Fellini film.
In my 40 years of investing, I was never good at timing the market even with all the so called financial experts predicting the future. My problem was not when to sell, but rather when to buy. So I gave up and use mainly funds and bonds with just a few stocks. I’m no expert and never will be. After reading some of the responses, most of you here know more investment jargon and analysis than I would ever want to know. However, I probably have more money invested in the markets than most people here. Today, not that spectacular, my portfolio increased by $17K. Yes, some days it decreases by more than that amount. I'm mandated to withdraw a sizable amount every year and still that amount is increased every year. My advise... get in and stay in.
I could care less. My net worth is strong. I can take all the hits it gives me. I want to throw money into a descending market since I know after that drop it will go into another secular bull. I am not fearful of bear markets. They just make me all the more aggressive.
Bull markets on the other hand make me uncomfortable. I'd rather see my money go down than up at this stage in the game since I know I'm not wasting money on an overvalued market.
If I ever saw a 8% drop in the market I'd probably drop a grand or two into it. I know there'd be a coming bear market but I'd know it would be a great time to throw it in anyway.
Drop a grand or two? Your net worth must not be that strong. One throwing in 1-2k is spit into the wind and two if your net worth was strong and you were heavily invested losing 80k in a day so you could ad 1-2k is a silly falsehood so many preach.
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