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I'm actually glad so many of you are completely optimistic about the future of America that our dad is actually a good thing. Guess I won't have to worry about my big pension that I'm getting from the government then. Thanks to all of you who are willing to fund it ad infinitum ! Party on I guess!
Even if we accept the idea that "debt is bad", that doesn't mean the US is anything like Greece. Germany wanted to enter a currency union with Greece so that it could export to Greece in exchange for debt to power its own economy. Now that the debt has gone too high, Germany refuses to allow Greece to pay back the debt by exporting Greek goods back (because that would wreck Germany's trade surplus), but also won't allow Greece to continue borrowing. Basically, Greece is screwed by the Euro, particularly Germany. There's no analogy here to America's situation.
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Originally Posted by Burkmere
They are that way primarily because they are much smaller, homogeneous countries with predominately a strong Northern European or Bec with predominately a strong Northern European work ethic that actually produces. So it's much more liable to work in a situation like that. Not so much with our country.
I think they're more likely to be socialist because they don't have to worry about 'dem lazy blacks stealing welfare dollars, but that doesn't mean those worries are justified.
By the way, boys and girls, the salad days are over for the Chinese. All the low-hanging fruit has been harvested. They now have terrible problems to overcome. They are going to be swamped by India soon enough anyway.
That busts your myth, since the vast overwhelming majority of debt is being bought by foreigners.
False. Per the US Treasury for May 2015, roughly half of US securities are bought by foreign private or government investors. The other half are bought by US investors.
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Originally Posted by Mircea
177%.
False. The total public debt to GDP ratio is 102.6%.
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Originally Posted by Mircea
Austerity worked for Iceland, Ireland, Latvia and a number of other Euro-States.
Those states had "austerity lite" compared to Greece; futhermore, austerity didn't "work," their government's balance sheets improved but their GDP's fell -- much like going to the doctor for a pulled muscle, getting an amputation and declaring the pulled muscle cured.
Iceland did do one thing right: they shut down the speculative banks and prosecuted the CEOs, something the U.S. should have done instead of bailouts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea
$5 Profit is $5 Profit. Whether I manufacture something in the US for $28 and sell it for $33 to get a $5 Profit or manufacture something in Romania for $1 and sell it for $6 to get a $5 Profit, at the end of the day, I get a $5 Profit. I don't need the US for anything.
There's a phrase for this type of short term profit-driven thinking: economic treason. Decades ago US corporations made products with US labor and the middle class thrived -- profits were earned. Today the focus of US corporations is making the quarterly earnings report and stock buybacks, which fatten up the CEO's 7-figure compensation, sending armies of lobbyists to Congress to get special tax breaks, and couldn't care less about the impact of outsourcing and layoffs on the well-being of the nation.
I was in Chile in 1963 when Allende tried to take over. While there, I observed that cash spent on cars left Chile forever. The country could not afford this loss of capital so they put a 100% duty on cars. All cars in Chile are imported. Chile had no automobile industry. It worked for them and that is how it is SUPPOSED to work in the USA. Dig out a copy of our constitution and see how our federal government is supposed to work.
Not many generations, actually. China will probably surpass the U.S. economically within one generation, and their military will also achieve parity with ours within a couple of decades.
You really ought to visit China and some of the other east Asian powers, then come back and tell us how you're not worried. They are, at this point, far in the lead. China's GDP today is higher than America's in terms of purchasing parity.
Brazil has huge social problems, corruption, lack of a strong work ethic -- the notion that they're going to challenge the U.S. for predominance in any particular sector seems a bit far fetched. We're sinking, but so are the Brazilians. The only thing they have going for them is their natural resources, and they can't just chop down the Amazon rain forests, which supply some huge percentage of the earth's oxygen.
I have been to China, and "parsley on a pig" comes to mind. They have enormous problems with the environment, human rights, etc... but they try to cover it up with shiny infrastructure, which, one has to admit, is impressive. I also think there are just as many social problems and corruption in China as in a place like Brazil, but a democratic system gives Brazil an advantage. I just don't see "Communist" (but not communist) China leading the world.
Their military is not even in the same ballpark as the U.S. Our air force and navy will be superior to theirs for decades to come. Get back to me when they ever finish their one aircraft carrier. For reference, we have ten.
Also get back to me when they stop manipulating their currency.
India is another interesting case, but the same principle applies. When those countries have real, proportional middle classes on par with the western world, I'll be more impressed. Their middle classes are more like a "20 percent class" - somewhat analogous to the U.S. in the 19th century. Until then, I don't think they've got their own houses in order. Are they producing and growing enough now to give the U.S. pause? Yes. India and China were always significant economic world leaders, but during the Western imperial age of the 18th through early 20th centuries they were exploited and uncharacteristically poor. Now they're coming back but I have to wonder if their grasp can meet their reach, particularly in the sense of their political systems.
Iceland did do one thing right: they shut down the speculative banks and prosecuted the CEOs, something the U.S. should have done instead of bailouts.
There's a phrase for this type of short term profit-driven thinking: economic treason. Decades ago US corporations made products with US labor and the middle class thrived -- profits were earned. Today the focus of US corporations is making the quarterly earnings report and stock buybacks, which fatten up the CEO's 7-figure compensation, sending armies of lobbyists to Congress to get special tax breaks, and couldn't care less about the impact of outsourcing and layoffs on the well-being of the nation.
To shut down a business and prosecute the CEO personally implies that the CEO committed a crime, and that the business including all of its employees committed crimes.
What crime exactly did the banks commit in the mid-2000s? They were trading in derivatives, which is a form of debt; there was nothing illegal about that. That debt was from millions of bad mortgages, loans made to people who didn't have enough credit.
What really happened was that the bubble burst on the home mortgage industry. A bunch of ARMs reset, suddenly hundreds of thousands of marginal homeowners living paycheck to paycheck found themselves unable to make their mortgage payments just as the economy was slowing down, and they defaulted, sticking the banks with the loans. The banks, deprived of billions of dollars in loan payments, began to go under, and the Bush Administration moved to prop them up to prevent a general panic. The Obama Administration was in complete agreement and continued this policy.
The real crime was that the federal government, led by progressives like Rep. Barney Frank (D - Mass.) forced the banks to make loans to marginal borrowers for political reasons. The Community Reinvestment Act and various state programs were how they pushed a progressive agenda that did not make economic sense. Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac encouraged this behavior.
After the bubble burst, the politicians blamed the banks, an easy way to weasel out of responsibility for the mess. The public largely swallowed this populist nonsense, and so we have this mythology that even today is promulgated by ignorant people on the left. Even Republican senator John McCain, while campaigning for president in 2008, blamed the "fat cats on Wall Street" for the financial meltdown.
Booms and busts are part of capitalistic economies and can't be avoided. In fact, trying to buffer them and make the pain go away too quickly is what damages the economy. The banks should have been allowed to fail. General Motors should have been allowed to go through bankruptcy. In the end, these businesses would have reemerged, leaner and stronger than before. The system works, if allowed. Whenever politicians intervene, usually to demonstrate that they're "doing something" to solve the panic, they make a mess into a bigger mess.
And Greece is a great example of that. Greece should be allowed to fail. They should get off the Euro, face their creditors, and simply be forced to repay loans before they can borrow any more, or beg for any more aid and assistance. It will hurt their pride, and it will be politically unpopular, but in the long run they'll clean up their mess and emerge stronger.
Like I said, not a bad haul for a kid from South Dakota. But your claims are indeed made up.
Not at all.
Do you want to bet a million dollars they aren't made up ?? Why would I make them up? The pension formulas for every single public agency are published and common knowledge. They are simply a percentage times your terminal compensation times number of yrs of svc credit. Since I paid into ss, I will also be able to collect that in a year. Some agencies have a as offset or didn't pay into it so those retires won't receive it.
I work for a water district ( retire in two months). Actually many of the fire and police formulas in CA are 3% @50. So 25 years at 50 and they receive 50% of final pay for life. Most receive medical for life also. Now with PEPRA in effect since 2013 ( Public Pension and Reform Act) the formula for public sector employees are a little less for those joining after Jan 1, 2013.
I love the SD cuts. My high school ranked in the top 3% nationally with regard to ACT scores . I feel deprived and inferior. LOL. Barbie.
I have been to China, and "parsley on a pig" comes to mind. They have enormous problems with the environment, human rights, etc... but they try to cover it up with shiny infrastructure, which, one has to admit, is impressive. I also think there are just as many social problems and corruption in China as in a place like Brazil, but a democratic system gives Brazil an advantage. I just don't see "Communist" (but not communist) China leading the world.
Their military is not even in the same ballpark as the U.S. Our air force and navy will be superior to theirs for decades to come. Get back to me when they ever finish their one aircraft carrier. For reference, we have ten.
Also get back to me when they stop manipulating their currency.
India is another interesting case, but the same principle applies. When those countries have real, proportional middle classes on par with the western world, I'll be more impressed. Their middle classes are more like a "20 percent class" - somewhat analogous to the U.S. in the 19th century. Until then, I don't think they've got their own houses in order. Are they producing and growing enough now to give the U.S. pause? Yes. India and China were always significant economic world leaders, but during the Western imperial age of the 18th through early 20th centuries they were exploited and uncharacteristically poor. Now they're coming back but I have to wonder if their grasp can meet their reach, particularly in the sense of their political systems.
Then I suggest you return to China and take a closer look. Also, read WSJ, NYT, and other periodicals that regularly report on China's stunning economic and military advances. They are taking over in nearly every sector.
Manufacturing is dominated by the Chinese today. Heavy industries like cars and airplanes are coming; they are exporting to 3rd world countries, and it's only a matter of time before we start seeing Chinese cars like Geely, Chery, Great Wall, etc. hit the roads in the U.S. A $7,000 car is going to sell very well, regardless of quality. They're going to drive the domestic makers right out of business, unless they move their plants to China. They're also the leaders in solar manufacturing, and China is adopting solar panels and solar hot water at a very high rate. They're also building hundreds of small, high tech nuclear reactors (notably, pebble) to replace coal. Eventually, I suspect they'll beat the pollution problem with technology.
I'm no cheerleader for China, and certainly I'm no friend of the evil regime that runs the country, but I was a China major in college and grad school and I can tell you: they are going to surpass us. Of course they have pollution and human rights issues. But the ruling class have an iron grip on the country and have found a winning formula: allow free economic progress, while maintaining control of the population's political thoughts and behavior. So far, it's worked.
Probably the population will eventually overthrow the Communists who are after all a relic. But as long as they are delivering on economic progress, no one's going to want to face the tanks.
I was in Chile in 1963 when Allende tried to take over.
Salvador Allende became President of Chile in 1970. He "took over" by being elected.
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