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There are plenty of manufacturing jobs. Nobody wants them. Instead, people pursue the IT and programming jobs, allowing employers to be very picky.
Understandably -- programming also has a huge labor shortage and it's higher pay for easier work if you can do it, and there aren't the same barriers to getting in -- no issues with needing to secure an apprenticeship, know someone in the local union, etc.
Employers are picky with the high visibility, high pay programming silicon valley style programming jobs in pure tech companies but there is a ton of less glamorous scripting, data handling, and implementation work in other industries that needs to be done paying $40-$100/year where there is a desperate shortage of people both able and willing to do that work.
As to whether a tighter labor market will help unskilled workers -- it depends why they are such. If it's because they can't find work leveraging their talents or have potential but haven't managed to get any training or their foot in the door, 100% it will help them. If they just aren't that bright or hard working, not as much. Back in '09 there was a huge pool of underutilized people -- those folks still exist and there are even some who are still struggling to get a toehold after the crisis, but from what I have seen from my own observations there aren't that many left.
During the late 1990s wages for less-credentialed workers rose only slightly slower than wages for more-credentialed workers, as you can see here (the difference looks bigger than it really is because college graduates grew from a higher base). Wages rose at a good clip every year for skilled and unskilled alike in that time period - education requirements to enter the middle class haven't changed much since, so we should expect the same result today.
Also, black wages increased at a faster rate than white wages, representing the only time since civil rights when the black-white wage gap narrowed significantly. Blacks tend to possess less skills than whites, so that tells you something right there about the skilled-unskilled divide and how it would play out in a boom. Also notice from the same chart that the black marriage rate increased for the first and to date last time since civil rights, greatly narrowing the black-white marriage gap.
Income inequality increased at a good clip during this period of time, with higher income brackets experiencing significantly faster income growth than lower income brackets, but the point is the income of all demographics was increasing at a good clip by historical standards, and the only divide that was growing was between high-earners and low-earners - the yawning divides of race, education, skill, and age in the economy narrowed considerably during the 1990s boom.
In fact if such a trend had continued over the past 15 years it's amazing how many social and economic problems would have been lessened by direct or indirect effects of the economic boom - a strong rising tide does indeed lift all boats, no matter what skills or credentials they have.
I've never understood the concept that a rising tide lifts all boats.,
A rising tide DOES lift all rents - job booms increase household formation, in turn shrinking rental vacancy rates, in turn prompting landlords to raise rents - but unskilled wages don't come close to keeping up with the soaring rents.
I gradually became worse and worse off in the 1980s as rents soared; I faced five rent increases in five years, was priced out and had to move three times, and was homeless Reagan's last four months in office (lived in my employer's offsite storage).
Just repeating something I read in another comment, that while IT workers, engineers and doctors make higher than average salaries, there is also demand for some blue collar jobs that pay well that don't require "math/science skills." Plumbers. Electricians. Handyman.
You don't have to work at a Walmart or Starbucks.
One guy I know left his stressful IT job and started a handyman business. Sets his own hours. Does various kinds of things. Says he doesn't have enough hours in the day to answer all the calls.
Another engineer quit and started a pool cleaning service. 200 customers paying $100 a month. Do the math on that. Plus more when things need to be fixed. And if you own a pool, you know there are always things that need to be fixed.
Carpenters, handymen, etc.. are doing well right now. HVAC repair, etc... These don't require much training (relatively speaking) but good trades make decent money.
Regarding programming jobs, even those are hard to find now. We have a perfect storm (in the US) of big business working with big government to create special rules for themselves. I am not sure what field of study to recommend to HS graduates anymore.
This is a popular meme on the internet, but how true is it?
A friend of mine is a general contractor. He does okay, making about what I do. Sometimes he makes more depending on what kind of jobs come his way, but when the economy is down he can go without work for months. He also has to hustle his butt off for every job.
The trades can make you middle class without a college degree, although from the tradesmen I know, they put in just as much, if not more, time and effort into learning their trade than is required for a college degree, so it's not like some easier route to success.
Realistically, you have to practice your trade 10+ years before you get good enough to get people to hire you on your own, which is where the real money is. It's also not completely stable. You mess up a job, a few people trash you on the internet, you lose your word-of-mouth network that gets you gigs, you're back as a worker bee for someone else's carpentry business making $25 an hour, and not 40 hours a week either, only when they need you to work.
they have more training than standard accountant or secretary... so they get paid more. office workers get more once they hit cpa and more advanced skills...
but between physical labor or office work, entry workers flock to the easy office and air con jobs... and they wonder why they get paid less than their hvac/mechanic
It's not just the hard work but the brutal hours. My mechanic works from 7:30am to 5:30pm and only then does he start closing shop, often not until well after 6pm does he take off for home. He tries to keep it to 5 days a week but often goes in on the 6th day to catch up on jobs that customers expect to be done by the first of the week. He lives in that shop pretty much.
Not everyone wants, or should, have to work like that.
This is a popular meme on the internet, but how true is it?
A friend of mine is a general contractor. He does okay, making about what I do. Sometimes he makes more depending on what kind of jobs come his way, but when the economy is down he can go without work for months. He also has to hustle his butt off for every job.
The trades can make you middle class without a college degree, although from the tradesmen I know, they put in just as much, if not more, time and effort into learning their trade than is required for a college degree, so it's not like some easier route to success.
Realistically, you have to practice your trade 10+ years before you get good enough to get people to hire you on your own, which is where the real money is. It's also not completely stable. You mess up a job, a few people trash you on the internet, you lose your word-of-mouth network that gets you gigs, you're back as a worker bee for someone else's carpentry business making $25 an hour, and not 40 hours a week either, only when they need you to work.
Absolutely right. Furthermore, when you're working making $25/hour you won't be getting any benies, either. Again, working in the trades is NOT what many claim, especially on the internet. That's why so many experienced older tradesmen are working for Home Depot, Lowes, etc.
If the economy were to really boom like it did in the late 1990s, what impact will that have on the wages of unskilled workers and the type of jobs that they do? I suspect the average person who works for under $10 an hour today will not be part of the booming economy. They will just compete against a growing number of immigrants who will flood into the country.
In the late 1990's there was a lot of immigration yet wages across all classes went up 4.3% on average. So yes, if we get full employment and high GDP growth, wages will go up for everybody even if there's a lot of immigration.
The fact is, if the U.S. did go back to a strongth growth period, we will NEED lots of immigrants to do the work at all levels. Not just manual labor or flipping burgers, but skilled labor and professionals too, for the simple reason that the Boomers are retiring and removing themselves from the labor pool.
Just repeating something I read in another comment, that while IT workers, engineers and doctors make higher than average salaries, there is also demand for some blue collar jobs that pay well that don't require "math/science skills." Plumbers. Electricians. Handyman.
You don't have to work at a Walmart or Starbucks.
One guy I know left his stressful IT job and started a handyman business. Sets his own hours. Does various kinds of things. Says he doesn't have enough hours in the day to answer all the calls.
Another engineer quit and started a pool cleaning service. 200 customers paying $100 a month. Do the math on that. Plus more when things need to be fixed. And if you own a pool, you know there are always things that need to be fixed.
Employers created their own labor shortages. Then they made those labor shortages even worse by paying the same wage/salary, or trying to pay even less. The race to the bottom has gone too far, and it's making America even less competitive and capable of taking care of itself.
Anyone who tries to blame the US worker for these problems is delusional.
Having said that, you highlight a good point. The skills acquired are still extremely valuable. To really get paid what you're worth though, you have to cut the middle man out (employer) and use those skills for something truly lucrative.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA
In the late 1990's there was a lot of immigration yet wages across all classes went up 4.3% on average. So yes, if we get full employment and high GDP growth, wages will go up for everybody even if there's a lot of immigration.
The fact is, if the U.S. did go back to a strongth growth period, we will NEED lots of immigrants to do the work at all levels. Not just manual labor or flipping burgers, but skilled labor and professionals too, for the simple reason that the Boomers are retiring and removing themselves from the labor pool.
America needs those skilled workers NOW. Many have retired, and too few Americans are stepping up to take their place.
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