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You know that you have a population bubble going to retire at the same time. So the fund runs a surplus for 30 years like the SS administration did expecting some positive rate of return down the road. Well ZIRP is wiping that positive rate out.
Us millennials will have major headaches with retirement.
There is ZIRP and possibly NIRP.
On top of that population.
It will be like 1:1 or 1.5:1 at best.
Can you imagine that
I think it's a bit premature to say.
I know that my peers right within 2 or 3 years of my age were old enough during 2008 to be shocked by what happened. We were relatively lucky, and many had entered the job markets before the labor markets collapsed. A lot of people, provided they had the income, hunkered down and started saving big time. We would be 'older millenials'.
I think people who are 4-5+ years younger than me have a very different memory of what happened that year, and maybe have a more careless attitude towards saving -- probably driven by their comparatively worse labor market experience and less ability to save. But that's not based on data, just based on my observations.
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Now as far as interest rates are concerned, people our age shouldn't be relying on bonds. Conventional wisdom is that young people should invest their retirement assets in the equity markets.
What's important to our age cohort are wages, and I think raising interest rates will, if anything, hurt wages.
Now as far as interest rates are concerned, people our age shouldn't be relying on bonds. Conventional wisdom is that young people should invest their retirement assets in the equity markets.
There are people in this forum who believe bonds are too risky too, and have put all their retirement savings in cash. The stated reasons are everything from the vague "the game is rigged" to the concrete "that's what my Dad did."
I know that my peers right within 2 or 3 years of my age were old enough during 2008 to be shocked by what happened. We were relatively lucky, and many had entered the job markets before the labor markets collapsed. A lot of people, provided they had the income, hunkered down and started saving big time. We would be 'older millenials'.
I think people who are 4-5+ years younger than me have a very different memory of what happened that year, and maybe have a more careless attitude towards saving -- probably driven by their comparatively worse labor market experience and less ability to save. But that's not based on data, just based on my observations.
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Now as far as interest rates are concerned, people our age shouldn't be relying on bonds. Conventional wisdom is that young people should invest their retirement assets in the equity markets.
What's important to our age cohort are wages, and I think raising interest rates will, if anything, hurt wages.
Wages are not gonna go up at all.
Now i might be wrong but bear with me.
In the post WW2 Era there was a sort of labor shortage here.
So businesses had to offer high wages to get people from Europe.
And you had a world in shambles so exports booming, domestic demand at record levels.
No wonder GDP growth was sustained at 4% for some time.
But today it's a different picture.
Labor is enough and maybe there is even some excess
World economy growing at 3% and stable.
There isn't major demand for American exports.
In this picture i don't think wages are gonna go up substantially.
The USA does not = Germany after WWI and Trump (as nuts as he may be about some things) is no Hitler; nor is the US economy anywhere near a disaster.
But it isn't the model of health. And what needs to change to get it there?
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but I wouldn't trade what my mind is good at to be able to spell well.
