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The more likely scenario is advancements become uneconomic and thus are never built in quantity.
Cost has never increased as sizes have shrunk, and performance has increased by many orders of magnitude.
But that is with the current silicone chip tech which is definitely near a physical limit. We'll need something substantially different for affordable supra-human processors. But AI is going to unemploy a lot of people even if this never happens.
BTW, it is GPUs rather than CPUs that are used for AI. Parallel processing. It isn't Intel's game.
I'm fully confident in our ability to make self-driving cars and robot waiters. I'm not so confident in society's collective will to ALSO create the infrastructure do so, or the ROI if you will.
When the Master's of the Universe decide the time is right, it will happen, and the profits will be immense.
We don't do "big things" anymore, because the US consumers have been divested of wealth for the last 40 years. So we can't afford things like infrastructure. We've been transitioning away from consumer capitalism, and most definitely not by accident. AI is where this leads.
AFAIK the "infrastructure" a self driving car needs is pretty trivial, and will probably disappear entirely in a few years with better tech.
When the Master's of the Universe decide the time is right, it will happen, and the profits will be immense.
We don't do "big things" anymore, because the US consumers have been divested of wealth for the last 40 years. So we can't afford things like infrastructure. We've been transitioning away from consumer capitalism, and most definitely not by accident. AI is where this leads.
AFAIK the "infrastructure" a self driving car needs is pretty trivial, and will probably disappear entirely in a few years with better tech.
There will still be the need for roads, bridges, etc., but that is also going to be hurt by automation through more robotic workers, infrastructure that requires less maintenance, etc.
For the record I don't think automation is going to cause a jobs apocalypse anytime soon. I think we're going to muddle along for the next few decades at least.
But let's say it does happen & automation makes most mundane jobs irrelevant and also a high percentage of medium and high skill jobs. Will it be so bad? Humans are not evolutionarilyy hard-wired to work for 40 hours a week, 50 weeks of the year anyway. We probably won't move backward to slavery or some kind of peasantry because we now have ideas of civil rights that are actionable in the legal system. Unless we just throw all that out the window.
If it happens slowly (more likely) you'll see a general decline in the birthrate.. people will stop producing kids at replacement level (about 2.1 children per female) and population will go into decline, meaning that the necessity of ever-expanding economies will go away.
Either society will figure out how to distribute the resources so that people can survive (some kind of basic income) or there will be some kind of revolution against those in control of the system.
Perhaps it'll bring about the communist revolution Marx dreamed of. Communism never happened in the countries he thought it would... he always assumed it would happen in the most technically advanced countries because he predicted they would eventually produce goods better than jobs. Communism was originally theorized to be the end result of technological advancement in the economy. Those in power did respond in order to stave off revolution... with social benefits, etc...
The economy has always adapted to technological paradigm shifts in technology that displaces large numbers of jobs. We find other things to do. 75 years ago it would have been unthinkable that agricultural sector was only directly responsible for 2.5% of jobs. But here we are.
Large-scale automated labor would bring about a kind of post-scarcity... or at least dramatically change what's scarce in our economy.
We probably won't move backward to slavery or some kind of peasantry because we now have ideas of civil rights that are actionable in the legal system. Unless we just throw all that out the window.
The important question is: do the 0.01% have the will and means to manipulate policy to get what they want? Because a world where 10 billion slobs live in luxury without working is not their idea of utopia.
Yes, civil rights will be "thrown out the window". Incrementally and slowly. So that the distracted, manipulated, divided population isn't even aware it's happening. Propaganda will keep everyone divided and confused enough to make denial the default response. It's already well underway.
It won't be slavery and peasantry though. Those people had to work. This will be marginalization of people who are economically unnecessary. After all, what should you expect if you don't even work? Probably a BI, but a small one. Poverty level or so. And encouraged to not reproduce. While the biggest owners of capital become insanely wealthy via AI.
The important question is: do the 0.01% have the will and means to manipulate policy to get what they want? Because a world where 10 billion slobs live in luxury without working is not their idea of utopia.
Yes, civil rights will be "thrown out the window". Incrementally and slowly. So that the distracted, manipulated, divided population isn't even aware it's happening. Propaganda will keep everyone divided and confused enough to make denial the default response. It's already well underway.
It won't be slavery and peasantry though. Those people had to work. This will be marginalization of people who are economically unnecessary. After all, what should you expect if you don't even work? Probably a BI, but a small one. Poverty level or so. And encouraged to not reproduce. While the biggest owners of capital become insanely wealthy via AI.
If what you said turns out to be right, that kind of society will inevitably be an authoritarian state of an all encompassing government. It sounds like 1984.
After all, do you think the poor living on BI will just happily stay there, while knowing that the wealthy live a hedonistic lifestyle? These disenfranchised will cause lots of trouble, and even if it's among themselves, sooner or later it will affect the wealthy and capital.
What methods will the wealthy and the technocrats use to control their population? Through an all encompassing big government, the wealthy interest is served. The poor gets to be watched, controlled, and pitied by their government. They will live like the Chinese opium takers of the 19th century, destroyed and yet dependent on the opium suppliers.
After all, do you think the poor living on BI will just happily stay there, while knowing that the wealthy live a hedonistic lifestyle? These disenfranchised will cause lots of trouble, and even if it's among themselves, sooner or later it will affect the wealthy and capital.
The power elite won't care if they cause trouble among themselves. These are unnecessary people you know. But I don't think the unemployed will be unhappy. The market will cater to maximizing their living standard based on what they can afford. Villages designed for BI living. In a couple decades people might "choose" to spend most of their time in a pod hooked up to VR. No cars, minimal transportation, cheap housing, low resource consumption, low overhead. If having babies is discouraged, the population will die off "naturally" in a couple generations.
The power elite won't care if they cause trouble among themselves. These are unnecessary people you know. But I don't think the unemployed will be unhappy. The market will cater to maximizing their living standard based on what they can afford. Villages designed for BI living. In a couple decades people might "choose" to spend most of their time in a pod hooked up to VR. No cars, minimal transportation, cheap housing, low resource consumption, low overhead. If having babies is discouraged, the population will die off "naturally" in a couple generations.
Is VR so bad though? I mean, even now to 10 years, VR is pretty awesome. But imagine modelling brain-states with VR, instead of just visuals. At that point, who really cares? It'll be like the ultimate drug, all pleasure with no side effects. I wouldn't sacrifice my ethics for such a prize, but I'd sure as hell sacrifice my dignity. That almost sounds like the utopian version of Elysium. Combine that with genetic engineering and we have solved almost all of our problems.
The important question is: do the 0.01% have the will and means to manipulate policy to get what they want? Because a world where 10 billion slobs live in luxury without working is not their idea of utopia.
Yes, civil rights will be "thrown out the window". Incrementally and slowly. So that the distracted, manipulated, divided population isn't even aware it's happening. Propaganda will keep everyone divided and confused enough to make denial the default response. It's already well underway.
It won't be slavery and peasantry though. Those people had to work. This will be marginalization of people who are economically unnecessary. After all, what should you expect if you don't even work? Probably a BI, but a small one. Poverty level or so. And encouraged to not reproduce. While the biggest owners of capital become insanely wealthy via AI.
If people do not have jobs because they are automated they are gonna need a basic income that pays more then just basic needs because there still needs to someone to buy what the robots are making.
The power elite won't care if they cause trouble among themselves. These are unnecessary people you know. But I don't think the unemployed will be unhappy. The market will cater to maximizing their living standard based on what they can afford. Villages designed for BI living. In a couple decades people might "choose" to spend most of their time in a pod hooked up to VR. No cars, minimal transportation, cheap housing, low resource consumption, low overhead. If having babies is discouraged, the population will die off "naturally" in a couple generations.
There is one factor you forgot and it's an important one.
There are countries like China that take a different approach. America has sacrificed its national interest for globalization. But China has quietly strengthened itself using globalization. They have nationalistic market economy, an ethnically united nation. The west is smoking pot. But the Chinese are still looking to build a traditional power , a strong and prosperous nation state.
How they go about that will affect things here. Don't you think?
In other words,they will put into test Americas national capabilities and will remind the ordinary Americans that there is an alternative.
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