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The velocity of money is very low...money is just not moving through the economy. There would be inflation, otherwise.
Businesses have been doing stock buy-backs.
The unemployment numbers have been fudged. 94 million Americans are out of the work force. The true unemployment figure is somewhere north of 23%. It is closer to 50% for teens.
It's not just that retail space has emptied out, presumably being replaced by online sales. It hasn't been. And big retailers are just going out of business. Nowadays, the only way some brick-and-mortars can sell, is on Amazon.
The only way the automotive manufacturers and dealers are staying alive, is by making sub-prime car loans. Thiese, and school loans, will be next to crash.
It's hard for anyone under about age 45, to remember real prosperity.
The velocity of money is very low...money is just not moving through the economy. There would be inflation, otherwise.
Businesses have been doing stock buy-backs.
The unemployment numbers have been fudged. 94 million Americans are out of the work force. The true unemployment figure is somewhere north of 23%. It is closer to 50% for teens.
It's not just that retail space has emptied out, presumably being replaced by online sales. It hasn't been. And big retailers are just going out of business. Nowadays, the only way some brick-and-mortars can sell, is on Amazon.
The only way the automotive manufacturers and dealers are staying alive, is by making sub-prime car loans. Thiese, and school loans, will be next to crash.
It's hard for anyone under about age 45, to remember real prosperity.
The unemployment numbers have been fudged. 94 million Americans are out of the work force. The true unemployment figure is somewhere north of 23%. It is closer to 50% for teens.
Nonsense. Fudged implies purposely deceptive, they publish six measures of unemployment and describe exactly how each is calculated. There is no "true" number except by people who disagree with the more commonly quoted U-3 which is based on the ILO standard.
I'm one of those 94 million not working because I choose not to work. It would stupid to count me not working for a measure designed to capture labor force slack.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nor'Eastah
The only way the automotive manufacturers and dealers are staying alive, is by making sub-prime car loans.
Funny you making this complete BS claim, GM's Q3 earnings report just came out yesterday and they doubled net income to $2.77 billion and notched record revenue in the third quarter. They are one of the most profitable car companies in the world, and their financials clearly indicate it has come mainly from sales of pickups and SUVs in North America. Q3 success was also attributed to strong margins on the Malibu redesign.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nor'Eastah
It's hard for anyone under about age 45, to remember real prosperity.
im 45 and I really cant remember when this country really truly had great economic times.. It sucked in the 70's under carter, kinda got better for the working man under regan, fair under the first bush, went to **** under clinton, I remember getting out of the navy in 99 and having to take almost nothing just to have a job, Skilled labor jobs where not hardly hiring or if they where they didnt pay ****, only good thing was living was cheaper, second bush came along, things where **** after 911 for a while housing prices went way up but other than that jobs where so so, and obma came in and the **** dropped like a rock. Some sectors did great under some administrations, but we have never gotten back to what we where back before or after WWII
Growing up I seen the end of the days where you could go to work for a company for 20 years and retire from there, after I got out in 99 the job jumping really got started started, if you weren't laid off you simply left to try and fine somewhere you could survive. Hell before I went in in 96 I dated a girl, her dad got laid off from a computer place and he was out of work for over 4 years, couldn't even get fast food cause he was too old.
That explains much of the problem with the economy. About half of the population is doing alright. The other half.... not so much - they are either on a treadmill or are seriously failing in the bottom 15-20% or so.
For those on the high side of the coin, things are okay. Things are very good for the top 15% or so. Much of that bottom half is out of sight and out of mind for those in the top half. Since the 21st century, we've seen that bottom half stop treading water and actually sink a bit... while the top half seems to get a better and better boat. It all comes out to a wash in the stats like unemployment, etc... Unemployment looks good.
Things don't look so good when those workers are working for effective wages that are the same as they were 25 years ago.
Much of the split is college education. Only 32% of the population has a bachelor's degree or higher. Only 45% have an associates or higher. The thing is, those degreed people tend to all cluster together in the same types of jobs and same neighborhoods, so they don't actually see what's going on.
Drive from New York City a couple hours to any of the towns upstate. You'll see what I'm talking about. There is also a rural vs. urban divide on this. The economies of small to medium sized towns have cratered, badly.
Completely agree.
One thing we're seeing is an increasing consolidation of well-paying jobs in what seems to be increasingly fewer metros. I'm 30, and growing up here in a small town in east Tennessee, there was a decent amount of white collar work in the "Tri-Cities" area when I was a kid. Many of those positions were in manufacturing, and many of these facilities were offshored, closed down completely, or some of the better jobs that were previously done here are now done in other areas. We had a glass manufacturing company that previously had its corporate HQ here. All the senior roles have moved to the Atlanta suburbs and there is only a skeleton crew of low level staff at this office. The adjacent plant is now shuttered.
I would say most of the people around my age who wanted to get a good job have had to move to other areas. Some remained there, others like myself were able to get experience and move back.
If you're in Tennessee and in a white collar occupation other than health care, Nashville is about your only option. Small towns and rural areas outside of that, while never having much sophisticated work, have largely been hollowed out of what they did have.
Most small towns and rural areas have been hollowed out, with largely a lot of medical jobs (often low end) caring for an aging population, and a lot of other low end stuff like call centers.
I'll be blunt - I'm doing fine. Good salary, manageable debt/expenses, well-fed 401k, a cute house in a great area with a manageable mortgage. But I'm concerned for the country as a whole because I don't want to be surrounded by people who can barely make it from day to day. Best thing we can do now is invest in our infrastructure bigtime.
I'll use where I live now as an example: The state I'm in limits infrastructure spending due to some disastrous legislation, and now it cannot keep up with the massive influx of growth it's seeing. Meanwhile, wages here are stagnating and people in the working class are struggling badly. Infrastructure jobs could solve a ton of problems.
My home state of New Jersey has a ton of problems - it's very hard to get ahead there, in part due to the high taxes. They need to restructure the state's government bigtime, imo.
What I'd like to see for the generation coming after me? Debt-free college for DESERVING students with a high likelihood of academic success (not every directionless kid who wanders onto a campus), better vo-tech opportunities, more infrastructure spending, universal healthcare (push Obamacare to the next level), more support for viable small businesses. Yeah, our taxes will go up, but I'll happily pay my share on that.
A comedy skit, albeit a poor one Bob. The nineties under Clinton, not that he was responsible-,
were the best of economic times. The fifties and sixties were great times also.
I was earning more in 1999 than ever. Skilled labor never had it so good as they had it
from 1995 until 2005. Never. The likes of those boom years are likely- never to be seen again.
Let us hope this untrue. As Warren Buffet the amiable capitalist maintains, " America always recovers." I believe him. We are the innovators. IT has naught to to with exceptionalism, it is advanced civilization chasing the profit motive.
SO, was it a false economy in the Clinton times? As in times of war? Yes. The housing bubble was forecast to bring the economy down,all knew and were in denial- money was loaned to any who had the inclination.
Money was everywhere. I watched my neighbors buying boats, covettes, pickups , new cars. All, soon lost , their new toys and some lost their shirt and some even lost everything, even their houses.
It was a financial free for all. Mortgage loan officers used to call the house offering huge sums of money
against the my newly inflated equity. All sorts of offers, truly generous they were. The house was worth a small fortune. So they maintained. Refinance with an ARM at 0ne percent and in five years
when the interest payment goes up merely refinance once again . Pennies from heaven.
I also remember in a portentious sign of things soon to come automaker Ford Motor Co. stock shares were selling for a mere $1.00 per share in 2003. I should have bought. They were the only one of the Big Three not to file bankruptcy however. Whod've thunk? Ford and only Ford survived it. I was so tempted to buy, I still recall it vividly.
Yes, Pondered this over a few gin and tonics more than once. I just couldn't bring myself to take the risk.
I could have multiplied my money 12 times with Ford Stock because it is now selliing at nearly $13.00. Imagine... those were crazy times. Just borrow money against the house and buy Ford stock I was advised.
Then came the Great Recession. The country nearly went under. My own diversified investments went down the tubes- by 25 percent. Many people in that time period lost all. I was very lucky.
I have since- only luckily-financially recovered and regained 25 percent over - pre-crash values. We are recovered?
Supposedly the amount of money lost to Americans in the form of 401k's etc , stocks, was 60 trillion dollars during those crunch times. When G.M. filed for bankruptcy employees of G.M. lost all. White collar people lost fortunes. I am acquainted with a few individuals in these financial dire straits. Retirement is their lost dream.
The entire social fabric of the country has changed in more ways than one. Ad nauseum...; jobs of substance- manufacturing jobs with pay and benefits that created a middle class here are gone overseas etc.etc.etc. It is said that this sort of occupation will continue to disappear here anyway as artificial intelligence begins to take over more and more of these types of occupations.This is the writing on the wall. IT is very obviously true.
The country is in a financial tight spot, regardless of optimistic employment figures and housing starts
etc. These are the tough times. However.......
Lucky we are to be here indeed - still- we still do better far than others here in the States. I sometimes ponder what fate must be like to reside anywhere else?
The bounty, wealth, is ASTONISHING compared to most places, here in the U.S. in just food products alone. People are very literally starving in many places to death on this earth, and here(?)enormous amounts of food are wasted every day. Prepared foods from stores such as. the the Kroger deli's etc. coast to coast are tossed daily. Meanwhile....
Expansion must occur(?) in order to create the growth of wealth? This is false. Where will population growth lead ?
Dems. plan to invest after the election 275 million into the country's infrastructure, this infusion of wealth directly into the economy will help those that need help the most, the bottom rung. It is a very good idea, the country is a little run down and needs some preventative maintenance, this much is sure.
America needs a shot in the arm of this sort. As surely as American Civil Engineers maintain that the country is in a severe state of disrepair.This is a good way to get a sluggish economy stirred up and perhaps even awakened, as happened during the Eisenehower administration. We truly need this.
Really.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNewheart
im 45 and I really cant remember when this country really truly had great economic times.. It sucked in the 70's under carter, kinda got better for the working man under regan, fair under the first bush, went to **** under clinton, I remember getting out of the navy in 99 and having to take almost nothing just to have a job, Skilled labor jobs where not hardly hiring or if they where they didnt pay ****, only good thing was living was cheaper, second bush came along, things where **** after 911 for a while housing prices went way up but other than that jobs where so so, and obma came in and the **** dropped like a rock. Some sectors did great under some administrations, but we have never gotten back to what we where back before or after WWII
Growing up I seen the end of the days where you could go to work for a company for 20 years and retire from there, after I got out in 99 the job jumping really got started started, if you weren't laid off you simply left to try and fine somewhere you could survive. Hell before I went in in 96 I dated a girl, her dad got laid off from a computer place and he was out of work for over 4 years, couldn't even get fast food cause he was too old.
I always get mixed views when this topic comes up in a discussion since some people will say the economy is fine right now and some will say the economy is bad. I'm not too knowledgeable myself when it comes to economics, but what exactly are the key indicators that a person looks out for when measuring economic conditions? Or what are the physical signs that a person should look out for? I live in New York City so maybe it isn't as apparent here as in other states. I walked around midtown the other day and a lot of commercial space and retail stores in the street I usually shop at have closed down and become vacant space open for rentals. Again, not sure if that had anything to do with anything, but it's something I've observed. I read a lot of posters who say the job market is bad, and some who say there are plenty of jobs out there. I'm still in school at the moment so I'm not exposed to the job market yet. So what do you guys and girls think? What are the signs?
Near zero interest rates for 8 long years tell you the recovery is weak. Savers are getting punished with next to no interest income on their savings. The stock market is being propped up by low rates as is the economy by discouraging saving in favor of spending to keep this tepid recovery moving very slowly forward. Investors don't keep all their savings in stocks usually a half to a third are in bonds depending in risk tolerance and life stage etc. The fed did it's job to get the recovery from 200 recession started but this admin and congress passed job killing laws or regs and killed the growth.
These are the economic indicators that are generally used for tracking the state of the economy. These combined will give you a pretty good picture of how the economy is trending.
Unemployment Rate New Business Startups New job growth New unemployment claims Manufacturing orders (durable and non-durable goods) Building permits
Consumer confidence index S&P 500
Case Schiller index FHFA Housing price index
Consumer Price Index
GDP growth (or decline) Retail sales Inventory (wholesale & retail goods)
Fed interest rates
Balance of trade
Those in BOLD are leading indicators, while the ones not bolded are lagging indicators. Pay most attention to the bolded if you want to have an idea where the economy is headed. When you get a lot of those bolded ones declining then you know we are headed for trouble. If some are declining and some are increasing it's a sign of a stagnant economy (depending on which as some are tied to each other). If most are trending positive then it's a growing and healthy economy.
Great list! I'm going to bookmark this for future reference
1983 was the beginning of this most recent business cycle, which expanded until 2001 and has been crashing, crashing and contracting ever since. From 2001-PRESENT we should be destroying what we build from 1983-2001. This is the way of the world!!!!!!
We were supposed to unload all our DEBT in a purging ( a death of the old body, which is what DEPRESSION is, think of it psychologically or emotionally and materially ) but the FED managed to evade this law for the time being - choosing to protect their debt (their assets) rather than to sacrifice themselves for the good of the future-world. So here we are, having NOT done our spiritual task, and holding on to a shipload of old obligations thinking we will be given a new body for our new future.....but the law is, you MUST sacrifice yourself in the alchemical fire (depression) in order to merit a new body, a resurrection body, when the New World approaches.
Selfish arrogance has won instead, for the moment.
We 'averted' (DELAYED) Depression by stealing (borrowing) massive amounts of FUTURE MONEY through QE and ZIRP. The idea was to steal money from the future and give it away so it would be spent today and would save us from deflation.
Did it save us from deflation? Or was it just a stalling tactic?
Depression actually saves us from inflation (DEBT INFLATION is one form of inflation); and inflation save us from depression. Day and Night syndrome. But resistance to Depression is understandable since we fear death and see in it LOSS instead of GAIN. Depression will cure us of DEBT. Then we will be able to start over, with a new life. We need to accept Depression and the suffering it brings to us personally so our children and our survivors can live without our karmic obligations.
The FED has chosen the opposite path, the one of damning the future to avoid pain in their own life.
The weak dollar expands the global debt bubble; the strong dollar punctures it. What do we want vs what do we need? We need a strong dollar. But this means a holocaust of sorts. Do we offer up ourselves to this grim monster; or do we offer up our children? It seems that many posters her and majority of Americans today want to offer our own children to this grim monster. Shameful what we have become, a nation of COWARDS!!!!!!
Throw away any indicators that you may use because everything has been distorted by the Fed and in truth our economy has been dead, on life support, since 2001!!!!!!!!
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and in five years
