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Auto Sales (which i've been taught was one of the first indicators of an impending recession) has not slowed as much as thought (according to this article).
What's going on----i thought we were heading into a recession???
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balkins
Auto Sales (which i've been taught was one of the first indicators of an impending recession) has not slowed as much as thought (according to this article).
What's going on----i thought we were heading into a recession???
There is no sign of heading into a recession around here, with residential and commercial construction booming, the airport setting records for passengers, lots of job openings, with many in the 6 figure range and fast food paying $13-15. New homes in the 1 million-1.5 million range are selling fast, and anything under about $700k is selling within a few days with multiple offers over asking. All of that seems more indicative than car sales, which are seasonal, and expected to be down this year after record sales last year. People don't buy a new car every year.
There is no sign of heading into a recession around here, with residential and commercial construction booming, the airport setting records for passengers, lots of job openings, with many in the 6 figure range and fast food paying $13-15. New homes in the 1 million-1.5 million range are selling fast, and anything under about $700k is selling within a few days with multiple offers over asking. All of that seems more indicative than car sales, which are seasonal, and expected to be down this year after record sales last year. People don't buy a new car every year.
That's how it looks before a recession because no one can really afford those prices, they have to mortgage 10 to 1 on their income
Last edited by Perma Bear; 11-15-2016 at 09:41 AM..
There is no sign of heading into a recession around here, with residential and commercial construction booming, the airport setting records for passengers, lots of job openings, with many in the 6 figure range and fast food paying $13-15. New homes in the 1 million-1.5 million range are selling fast, and anything under about $700k is selling within a few days with multiple offers over asking. All of that seems more indicative than car sales, which are seasonal, and expected to be down this year after record sales last year. People don't buy a new car every year.
Yes Hemlock.
I am coming to learn that recessions are "area" specific. The Markets seem to not care who the president is.
Auto Sales (which i've been taught was one of the first indicators of an impending recession) has not slowed as much as thought (according to this article).
What's going on----i thought we were heading into a recession???
I think that high unemployment is the first sign of a recession. Car sales go up and down all the time. Car sales, and other unnecessary retail purchases, will go down AFTER people start losing their jobs, have their hours cut, have their wages frozen.
Unemployment is now lower than before the Great Recession. There is no sign of a recession coming, if the climate and regulations stay as they are now, which of course is not going to happen. But as of now, there's no recession on the horizon.
That's not to say that the stock market won't go down. People have been saying for a long time that the stock market will correct because it's in a bull market for several years, which can't last. That is not a recession, though. Two different things.
What we do know is that big levels of deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy are followed by recessions, if history repeats itself. That's happened twice. Once was before the Great Depression. The second time was before the Great Recession just recently.
I've seen an uptick of people claiming, after the election, that a recession is coming. My personal opinion is that these are people who are trying to shift the blame for any upcoming recession because of deregulation and tax cuts to the prior administration.
Our economy has been in a growth mode for years. The unemployment has been lower every year since 2009, including this year. GDP, while not great, is decent. The deficit has decreased every year for years. We are not in a recession now, and there isn't an indication that one is looming, IF the regulations and policies were to stay intact, which will not happen because of the upcoming change in administration.
Auto Sales (which i've been taught was one of the first indicators of an impending recession) has not slowed as much as thought (according to this article).
What's going on----i thought we were heading into a recession???
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