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If you believe any chart shows a recession is a certainty you either don't know the definition of the word "certainty" or can't read a chart.
If I had a dime for every armchair economist on this forum who incorrectly declared some future economic event or state a "certainty" I could finally hire The Jesus Lizard to reunite and play a gig for my birthday party. Where the heck did that one "the DOW will never see 18k again!" fool go? Is he hanging out with the "hyperinflation guaranteed" poster waiting to return to the forum when the market shows a hiccup?
I laugh at doomsayers, negative nannies, and such.... I don't know what the market is going to do one month from now, much less one year from now... I am making more money now and isn't that the whole point? Nothing on my radar shows recession but maybe it's because I ignore economists and pay attention to the market...
Yes, the auto industry peaked, retail is closing in malls (commercial real estate), stocks are at a high, we nearly have full employment, and the fed is tightening. I think we could have a small recession within 6 to 18 months.
Sales overall in retail may be up, but obviously that person meant brick and mortar retail. There's tremendous churn and creative destruction going on right now between online and brick and mortar. It will not come without short term pain.
96% of s&p 500 companies not only beat profits but more important beat revenue . rates are low ,inflation is low , energy prices are low ,generally energy is a big factor in modern recessions .
foreign demand and economies are picking up to .
Strong economic recovery should have happened around 2010. Why did it not? Too much regulation and too much gov sopping up the cash to grow government and crowd out business. People instinctively know business grow jobs sustainable jobs and put money in the hands of the citizens to fuel growth, the fed gov growth fuels higher deficits and tax increase demands which do not grow the economy. Near zero interest rates at the end of the last admin tells you growth was not strong...
Knowing that Obama would follow the only sensible course by using spending and debt to turn around the mess that eight years of Bush-43 had finally collapsed into, the GOP simply went into obstructionist mode and railed on and on about the evils of spending and debt. In their minds, a bad economy would be good for them at the polls, so they did whatever they could to block and slow the process of recovery. Party before Country.
Sales overall in retail may be up, but obviously that person meant brick and mortar retail. There's tremendous churn and creative destruction going on right now between online and brick and mortar. It will not come without short term pain.
There's also tremendous levels of Ron Paul BS being flung around. Retail is retail. From food trucks and street stalls to the most elegant of market venues, it's all part of the same game.
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