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Yup, just a prediction. You told a long story about the outcome of your prediction but did not supply any facts, theories or ideas to support the prediction. I might as well predict a tidal wave wiping out Hilo.
This has been a long thread, so perhaps you missed part of it. I posted some current events in China in post #43. It is quite possible that the next recession will start in China, which is poised to have the largest GDP in the world within a decade. Certainly anyone who follows the news knows that the government takeover of Anfang is just a small part of the challenges they face. Their banking crisis is much more serious. Just like the US, they will try to postpone the collapse as long as possible, which only digs the hole deeper.
Yup, just a prediction. You told a long story about the outcome of your prediction but did not supply any facts, theories or ideas to support the prediction. I might as well predict a tidal wave wiping out Hilo.
Because I wanted to talk about the outcome of a recession, and not when the recession will happen. A lot of users have talked about that already.
If you want me to explain something I wrote in more detail, then just ask.
Late 2019-early 2020. It needs time for the rest of the Republicans to turn against Trump, for Trump's personal problems to boil over (probably his marriage, for one), for the changes he's made to take effect and backfire.
The stock market will be a confusing mess, public confidence in anything will be low, chance of impeachment for Trump will be high--it's just getting started and will take time to develop.
It could all hit the fan tomorrow..or never. The only mistake is trying to time it.
No, the mistake is that we are using flawed economic models that cannot predict recessions. I have never seen an international organization or country predict a recession before it is too late.
Take a look at Iceland before the financial crisis. Here is a chart of their money supply, does that seem normal? Iceland was an easy prediction, and some economists warned Iceland, but most people thought this was completly normal till it crashed. Even though OECD noticed substantial problems they still assumed Iceland would get positive growth. (source)
So why 2019 - 2020? The easy way to predict recessions is to look at indicators that occured before previous recessions, and compare them today. For instance, unemployment has never remained at 4% in the US for very long, because low unemployment lead to overheating of the economy, and right now unemployment is at 4% and wage growth is nearly 5%. Yield spreads tend to get inverted before recessions, which is happening right now. The current business cycle is the second longest in history and the property prices to rents is very high in many countries. In addition many economists and banks has predicted a recession around 2019.
Of course it is possible that the economy just keeps growing, but that has never happened before. I believe history has a tendency to repeat itself.
No, the mistake is that we are using flawed economic models that cannot predict recessions. I have never seen an international organization or country predict a recession before it is too late.
Take a look at Iceland before the financial crisis. Here is a chart of their money supply, does that seem normal? Iceland was an easy prediction, and some economists warned Iceland, but most people thought this was completly normal till it crashed. Even though OECD noticed substantial problems they still assumed Iceland would get positive growth. (source)
So why 2019 - 2020? The easy way to predict recessions is to look at indicators that occured before previous recessions, and compare them today. For instance, unemployment has never remained at 4% in the US for very long, because low unemployment lead to overheating of the economy, and right now unemployment is at 4% and wage growth is nearly 5%. Yield spreads tend to get inverted before recessions, which is happening right now. The current business cycle is the second longest in history and the property prices to rents is very high in many countries. In addition many economists and banks has predicted a recession around 2019.
Of course it is possible that the economy just keeps growing, but that has never happened before. I believe history has a tendency to repeat itself.
I don't think history should be ignored BUT .... this is a new world now and alot of the rules that applied in the past don't apply today. I still say as soon as a recession starts to show its head this market will crash like we have never seen. Until then? Happy sailing.
The current business cycle is the second longest in history and the property prices to rents is very high in many countries.
Not yet.
It will be tied for second longest in May, and then become the second longest in June.
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