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When AI does take over those countries with massive populations will be in for an awakening. That is a lot of mouths to feed with a bunch of idle time on their hands.
I really don''t see the power base in "those" countries making that type of decision
It would be self-destructive to their aims--
Don't you think?
China will of course have trouble growing the economy. They are going from a very poor, rural agricultural society to a modern industrial society in a very short period of time. And they have a population of over a billion while they are trying to do it. There will undoubtedly be significant issues that come up
When AI does take over those countries with massive populations will be in for an awakening. That is a lot of mouths to feed with a bunch of idle time on their hands.
You realize that AI is just like any other paradigm that emerges in the economic system, to be gamed by those inclined to abuse power. The overall dynamic will remain the same, and AI will be owned and controlled by the rich to do its bidding..
Remember that "1984" came about to waste resources so there would not be the well-fed idleness, that advancing industry promised.
Aridin. annual Trade deficits are ALWAYS net detrimental to their nation's GDP and numbers of jobs.
I'm among the proponents of Wikipedia's improved version of a trade policy described in Wikipedia's “Import Certificates” article.
I prefer government policies conducted by explicitly drafted laws and regulations rather than by ad-hok negotiated compromises.
[It's illogical to protect USA steel producers with tariffs while not similarly enacting tariffs upon all goods to the extent that they contain steel or steel substitutes. A trade policy should be general, rather than product specific].
Import Certificate policy is substantially market driven and does not discriminate among foreign nations, or industries, or enterprises, or upon almost any types of goods. It would increase USA's GDP and numbers of jobs more than otherwise.
The United States is equally dependent on our 3% growth from debt (our boom time growth rates have been shrinking rapidly). So debt fueled growth isn't anything unique to China. There will always be challenges with any economy, however there is far more that can be done in China than here.
They have a massive under class that they can exploit and don't particularly care about. More and more of this under class is rapidly advancing into the middle class as well. So you end up with a unique situation. If prices go up and people die, **** 'em, expendable. 80% of their economy is rural or migrant workers. This is a massive pool for their middle class to grow from and growing it is.
Our situation is different. We have virtually 0 population growth. We have peaked and have a mature service based economy. Our middle class is being stretched, the top end is doing great but the bottom half is having a harder time moving up. Lower class has seen a lot of stagnation, real wages are likely lower over time. Regardless, the mobility in our economy at the fattest part is diminishing and this trend is likely to continue as more and more competition for outsourcing pushes more of the middle class out.
We also have a ton of economic issues that we haven't been able to address. Social Security is a big one. Same with excessive military spending. We have massive deficits yet are in supposedly a "good" economy. All of these things are going to require either massive spending cuts (bubble deflation) and/or tax increases. Regardless of how you do it, these items are going to be huge albatrosses over the next 20 years or so.
Outsourcing is only going to continue. The rest of the world is getting educated and competition is heating up for everything. Programmers, lawyers, engineers, accountants, realtors, etc. There is a ton of work that we have here which can be outsourced or done through machine learning / technology.
So what exactly are we waiting for?
China to open its markets? Why?
Let me put it this way. China holds all the cards. We had a chance to offset some of that with TPP but we foolishly pulled out of that. Our companies and every other company in the world wants to do business there and in Asia because that is where the growth is and will be.
China is playing the long game. We are playing the short, retarded game. What makes you think that China is going to suddenly give away all its leverage and let everyone into its markets? They won't. They don't have to and they won't unless they get what they want. 10 years, 50 years, 1000 years, they don't care. Simple numbers says they are going to dominate, just a matter of when.
The only thing they are waiting for and attempting to delay is the current administration in any way shape or form from raising tariffs again. Not because they are going to give in, they won't. They are stalling because every 90 days they "negotiate" and waste time that is time that tariffs aren't in place. They know as well as most people that the current administration is likely to face an uphill battle for reelection and in a relatively short period of time all of this will be over.
That is what they are waiting for.
The United States waiting? That is foolish. The only thing we are waiting on is a negative rate experiment when the next recession comes and at best maybe we crawl out of it with 1 or 2% growth for our boom cycle.
I'm not wrapping myself in the flag here, but your premise is wrong. It's China that is in deep trouble, not the United States.
First off, don't look at the Chinese growth numbers. They are notorious for cooking their books. Lester Turow, the Nobel economist, did an interesting analysis a few years back where he noted that China's GDP growth rate was roughly twice that of its increase in electrical production. This is an economic impossibility, for you need electricity to power machinery, computers, lights, and a host of other things.
Second, China has been guilty of gross malinvestment. Look up "China ghost cities" on Google and you'll see why. Cities that are built for a million people sit vacant. Its vaunted high speed train system has been deemed unsustainable by a wide array of economists, including those of the IMF. The country's debt is stratospheric and heavily dependent on a rickety shadow banking structure, making this country's national and consumer debt look like a short-term cash flow problem in comparison. Need a telling statistic? Until the Chinese government began instituting heavy handed control, capital flight was a serious issue with trillions leaving the country. If the future was so bright, why are China's wealthiest not investing internally?
And, finally, China's One Couple One Child policy is the chicken that's coming home to roost. In 2014, China hit its peak working age population, one that has been dropping precipitously ever since. Between now and 2050, China is expected to see its working age population drop by roughly 250 million while, during the same time period, the United States' is supposed to rise by about 50 million. And China will be dealing with an immense elderly population without the mature investment and savings vehicles we have enjoyed in the United States. In truth, if you want to see what China will be like in thirty years, look at Japan today. In the 80s, everybody talked about Japan becoming the world's dominant economy? Today? No.
What's more, it's important to realize that China was, at its essence, a commodity economy. Unlike other economies that are dependent on oil or minerals or bananas, the Chinese commodity is cheap labor. Over the past few years, I've seen several of my clients move manufacturing outside of China to places such as Vietnam and India, even Mexico and the United States, chiefly because Chinese labor isn't cheap any more. Add to that the notorious red tape of China and its wholesale contempt for intellectual property rights, and small wonder so many are moving. For the past ten years, I've been attending one client's trade show. For a while in the early part of this decade, Chinese companies were showing up in droves. Now, you don't see them any more.
In other words, it's the United States that can afford to play the long game here. China hands have been saying for a long time now that China will get old before it gets rich. And if you read between the lines, it looks as if they were right.
I’m posting the article here rather than the politics forum because economics is not my strong suit and I’m curious if others agree with the author’s recommended approach.
Somehow we need to be able to trade with China without them stealing our technology.
I agree that China has serious problems with pollution and they will be dealing with a severe problem with ageing soon.
There's nothing the US could do against China except putting up the walls necessary to get them to the bargaining table. They too understand they are deeply dependent on US consumer spending and they can't simply wait for us to fix our own economic growth issues.
This is why China is moving factories here because they want to see US spending grow and have more favorable trade status restored.
The only trouble I have with the waiting game is that waiting too long will set us back. It took China less than 30 years to achieve the kind of growth that it took America 100 years to achieve. Each decade China as expanded it's military and technological abilities. You can say they steal and copy, it's the same as the US acquiring technology through purchasing. America has blocked and prevented China from acquiring companies and technologies so they went backdoor and stole the technology or have companies like IBM, Apple, HP, share their technologies with them in exchange for cheaper services.
I think waiting them out is a short term strategy but not a good long term one. Eventually the US will have to decide whether China is an enemy like Russia or true partner that it should share power with.
When I saw the title, I thought it was for China to wait it out and I was thinking, "No sh**! What do you think Hong Kong was?".
The point is, historically, the Chinese have been a patient people and they have been the ones who have won, "waiting it out".
So, unless there is a new way to cook, errrrr, trick the dog, is there wisdom in waiting out the Master of Waiting?
yeah, they are masters of waiting. We need a vision for our long term relationship with China that's devoid as much as possible from partisan Republican/Democrat bickering.
I worked in China and would like to see a long term mutually beneficial trade relationship with China that includes security agreements if possible. They have their own problems and are working on them but they are substantial and also want a mutually beneficial deal.
Can’t read the article. So have to assume what you’re talking about.
China is a paper tiger. They’ve got serious debt bubble that is due for a popping. They’ve got serious age demographic issues upcoming. They’ve got a billion people to move from commodity to consumer based economy.
The one thing the US could really be doing differently is not handing Africa over to China. That’ll potentianally be a lucrative market one day and we’re just letting China steam roll through there. They’re probably even more sharks than we are.
Otherwise, it’s just a matter of waiting them out. I doubt they’ll ever achieve super power status like we have.
Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read
I really don''t see the power base in "those" countries making that type of decision
It would be self-destructive to their aims--
Don't you think?
Umm. China uses AI to spy on its people and keep track of them already to a far greater extent than any of us have seen.
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