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Never said I hate it - I said I (and quite a few other sharp folks here) don't trust that the standard indicators are painting a complete or correct picture. We're all seeing way too much contrary data - ground truth data - that's sharply at odds with all the pretty, pretty numbers.
And while I don't think it's a significant factor, if there's ever been an administration whose numbers were worth distrusting, this is it. Shut down half the agencies and put brown-nosing ideologues in charge of the rest... and surprise, surprise, its a veritable rose garden around here.
As for "what I'm selling," I haven't seen one clue that you even know what that is. You're running a long string of vague accusations here. Haul out that dusty PhD and put some specs in your bite, when and if you can.
Excellent post.I agree that there is no shortage of clues that all is not well. Troubling statistics are easily visible to those that are willing to turn their heads from all the hype, being pedaled by those that have the most to gain. The fact that impending recession is the number one external concern of CEOs, worldwide, is a pretty big red flag. It might not end well for those who chose to ignore the educated opinion, being offered by many competent economists, that the 3.2% is an anomaly. A figure that they believe will quickly revert to a less than stellar 2% ish, assuming this run still has legs. If, and when this ends badly, and quickly, it will be entertaining to watch the "experts" who currently parrot the, "things are magnificently rosy, it's great, and getting greater", economic outlook. IIRC, Cramer was the poster boy for these fools, in the last round.
At that point, some of this professional babbling class will switch sides, and with a straight face tell you how it was an easy crisis to predict, given the dark clouds of Brexit, China's house of cards, The Orange monstrosity's reelection, political upheaval in Europe, an unwelcomed move by the Fed, or whatever the trigger event happens to be.
I certainly don't hate it, I've made a shocking haul in funds and ETFs over the last half decade, and put me in a position I would of never dreamed of, a decade or two back. That said, I will be the guy who isn't the least bit shocked, as our current crop of crowing roosters, climb out from under the post crash pile, shake the dust off their feathers, and run in circles, amazed that it happened.
It's tough to blame the government on this one. To be honest, they've been fairly stellar. There's actually progress in getting trade with China fair, we saw exporter activity pick up in the last readings. There's been very little job killing regulation. We've stayed out of wars. Taxes have been lowered.
It's too bad Corporate leaders took the bountiful years and levered up as if they would always continue rather than make sure they had enough in store for winter. Bad behavior now will make sure that bailout of the corporate sector will be necessary and commercial interests will never get the same freedom again.
The United Stares economy is going to perform well over the next 10 years. That is my prediction.
The “bad times” already happened from 2000-2010.
I'd like to think so. However, the current administration has made a series of blunders that will have huge economic impact in the next few years, even if the next one corrects many of them. The last few years were a time to make careful course corrections and set some important things in motion... and we got hack and slash and kick-down-the-road and an outright damaging tax revision.
I tend to have a negative outlook, but that's from observing some long-term trends that are just now starting to be recognized for the forces they are. It doesn't mean I don't hope for the best.
But the more or less steady economic path has been badly affected... and that's before we start accounting for these new factors. What's worse, our failure to shore up the basic steady-state economy is going to undercut our ability to start addressing these problems in a timely fashion.
I question what the economic forecasters "know." When are the consensus predictions ever right? As I recall, the mainstream economists completely missed how severe the 2008 financial crisis would be, with a few exceptions like Roubini, and even he was more lucky than right.
This is pretty much my thought as well.
Our economy is propped up by various forms of debt. It's not really stable under the surface of things, and hasn't been for quite a long time.
As for "what I'm selling," I haven't seen one clue that you even know what that is. You're running a long string of vague accusations here. Haul out that dusty PhD and put some specs in your bite, when and if you can.
Pretty much anyone who's read enough of your posts knows your political ideology.
GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year. That is faster than most economists expected, and far better than the dour forecasts of early this year, when many forecast growth could fall below 1 percent.
You apparently haven't read up on the various figures that make up that number......
I don't predict a Recession, although we surely won't be prepared if one eventually hits. But to classify a 5% (yearly) rise in the DOW over the past 16+ months as a boom isn't exactly descriptive.
1.2% rise in consumer spending....was very poor. Most other metrics related to what actual human beings feel - came through with similar weakness.
This DESPITE trillion dollar deficits and trillion dollar "tax reform" and choking off the Fed Normalization.
Housing prices and sales stable...off in some areas. Car sales stable or off. Durable goods stable or off.
People accuse me of "only" looking at the stock market (very poor performance) since the day the "tax reform" was signed (16+ months), but yet here you are crowing about 3 months....and a figure which doesn't look so great when broken down.
Most Americans don't make money when more oil is exported or some arms or airliners delivered overseas. They make money from the stock market (a decent percentage) and that drives a LOT of consumer spending.
As a boat dealer. They sell virtually nothing when the market is flat (like now). Vacation houses are not popular these days....whether you approve of them is not the point, but they have driven a lot of economic benefits. The new "tax reform" does away with many of the potential breaks one would get for that particular form of economic activity (same with boats, RVs, etc.)....
I repeat my take - things are "stable at best". Of course, given inflation and increasing population and the very basics, stable still means slow growth.
Lastly, remember that higher medical costs, military costs, fuel costs, etc. ALL add to GDP. But they don't benefit the "forgotten man" very much.
It's tough to blame the government on this one. To be honest, they've been fairly stellar. There's actually progress in getting trade with China fair, we saw exporter activity pick up in the last readings. There's been very little job killing regulation. We've stayed out of wars. Taxes have been lowered.
It's too bad Corporate leaders took the bountiful years and levered up as if they would always continue rather than make sure they had enough in store for winter. Bad behavior now will make sure that bailout of the corporate sector will be necessary and commercial interests will never get the same freedom again.
On one hand you say the Government is not to blame - yet don't note that tens or hundreds of BILLIONS were given BY THE GOVERNMENT PURPOSELY to corporations...adding to deficit for (likely) a generation or more...until we can somehow raise taxes enough to offset it.
No wars? Well, that would then make the case that military and security spending are down! Are they?
All this boom from no wars and no regulation....doesn't that mean the deficit goes down?
As far as China, that's as big of a joke as NK. We are two years plus in and look at the yearly trade deficits with China!
Do you really claim that, when we look back, the 4 year Trump term is going to show a lower total trade deficit with China then what existed before? I say no way......
Of course, the tariffs are already costing each American consumer $213 per year....it's coming out of our pockets, not that of China. Lose-Lose.
We're all seeing way too much contrary data - ground truth data - that's sharply at odds with all the pretty, pretty numbers.
And while I don't think it's a significant factor, if there's ever been an administration whose numbers were worth distrusting, this is it.
Skepticism regarding data isn't necessarily a bad thing.
At the same time, I think focusing on the administration is not helpful. The various agencies of the federal government are full of career, non-political-appointee PhD Statisticians who focus on trying to assure the quality of the data they collect & publish, together with appropriate analysis. Even though few likely vote Republican, and some are members of the Deep State Resistance, I don't believe they manufacture self-serving data out of thin air. Their allegiance to their profession is strong, and they value their personal reputation as scientists.
The United Stares economy is going to perform well over the next 10 years. That is my prediction.
The “bad times” already happened from 2000-2010.
Congratulations, you survived.
I hope I'm wrong but I doubt this very much.
America has kept its head in the sand about its economic problems for decades now. All we do is cut taxes and / or raise spending. But we never fix the underlying systemic problems.
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