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Respectfully, this is pure fantasy. The economy was doing great 10 weeks ago, with zero unemployment and high consumer demand.
As soon as people can get out and resume their lives, even 50% of their lives, the economy will once again be booming.
Booming even harder, actually, as it makes up for lost time. Think of all those cars and houses people have put off buying.
And a boycott of China has finally arrived. There's going to be a boom in Made-in-USA products. Factories are going to be expanding, new plants being built, taking advantage of ridiculously low energy prices and an eager market.
Yeah, we'll encounter some turbulence, no doubt, but then it's going to be lift-off. I'm an optimist!
all the weak business that will fail will give birth to new business's ....many will be using their own creativity to start there own business when they fail to get their job back .
i too am not buying in to the doom and gloom vision ... i dont think things will be great for a while but i do think they will be a whole lot less bad then these visions of 1929.
america has always been durable , responsive and bounced back despite the visions of the gloomers .
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-28-2020 at 02:13 AM..
And a boycott of China has finally arrived. There's going to be a boom in Made-in-USA products. Factories are going to be expanding, new plants being built, taking advantage of ridiculously low energy prices and an eager market.
Keep dreaming.
1. Most Americans don't have anything against China and will continue to buy Chinese products.
2. The people who do hold a grudge against China will continue to buy Chinese products anyway, because after all of this, that is the only thing they will be able to afford.
3. The people who do hold a grudge against China will continue to buy Chinese products anyway, because that is the only place the products are made. Very few products are still made in the US.
4. Walmart will continue to buy and sell mostly Chinese products, because they are cheap like that, and will always buy the cheapest they can find.
5. After the hit the economy has taken, it's unlikely there will be much money or interest in expanding factories or building new plants. Companies will be struggling to survive. Many won't even make it.
1. Most Americans don't have anything against China and will continue to buy Chinese products.
4. Walmart will continue to buy and sell mostly Chinese products, because they are cheap like that, and will always buy the cheapest they can find.
1. Didn't have anything against China pre-COVID, but I most certainly do now. I plan to avoid China whenever I can. What really sucks though is Apple with all their MIC products. I upgraded shortly before the outbreak and will reconsider before the next upgrade... but what other option is there for your phone and tablet? Samsung? SOL on this one I think.
4. China or not, haven't shopped in Walmart since 2014. Got tired of going in there and standing in line for a half hour because the one cashier they had working couldn't check people out fast enough. Self-checkout wasn't any better... 6-8 registers with 75 people in line.
Your description of Walmart is spot on though. Cheap bastards will never get another nickel of my money.
1. Most Americans don't have anything against China and will continue to buy Chinese products.
2. The people who do hold a grudge against China will continue to buy Chinese products anyway, because after all of this, that is the only thing they will be able to afford.
3. The people who do hold a grudge against China will continue to buy Chinese products anyway, because that is the only place the products are made. Very few products are still made in the US.
4. Walmart will continue to buy and sell mostly Chinese products, because they are cheap like that, and will always buy the cheapest they can find.
5. After the hit the economy has taken, it's unlikely there will be much money or interest in expanding factories or building new plants. Companies will be struggling to survive. Many won't even make it.
Are you so sure about that? People are really angry. It's all over the social media, at least the conservative news sites and chatboards.
There's been increasing anger toward China since the early Clinton Administration when they mowed down those democracy demonstrators, and you could argue, yeah see that's my point!
But this is different. Well, a few months from now are the elections and then we'll see how the people feel.
1. Most Americans don't have anything against China and will continue to buy Chinese products.
2. The people who do hold a grudge against China will continue to buy Chinese products anyway, because after all of this, that is the only thing they will be able to afford.
3. The people who do hold a grudge against China will continue to buy Chinese products anyway, because that is the only place the products are made. Very few products are still made in the US.
4. Walmart will continue to buy and sell mostly Chinese products, because they are cheap like that, and will always buy the cheapest they can find.
5. After the hit the economy has taken, it's unlikely there will be much money or interest in expanding factories or building new plants. Companies will be struggling to survive. Many won't even make it.
1. Sure they do. They just couldn’t do anything about it.
2/3. Some will simply because of affordability. Some won’t. I absolutely try not to buy China made stuff. In some cases o do t have the option. In some cases I do.
4. Walmart will sell what consumers want. Like anyone else.
5. If people start buying and demand made in USA factories will most certainly expand
Seeing content like this regurgitated gives a bit of insight into the who spends their time on doomsday websites where fear is sold for ad-clicks. I mean, you can already tell when someone pops into every thread pedaling the usual assortment of claims about hyperinflation, economy never coming back, etc. but when you see links like this that show you where their daily reading comes from, just wow.
As with most authors who pay their mortgage by pedaling fear, a glance at his history of "analysis" shows years and years of being wrong. You want to know why he's writing articles for money instead of investing? Because he's gotten killed in the stock market trying to make money shorting it when it's on a once-in-a-generation bull:
October 2009
Quote:
So by way of disclosure: I own calls on inverse ETFs which rise if the market falls, and I advised my sister to sell Monday morning--sell hard, sell fast, and go to cash. Sell the gold funds, the stock funds, sell it all. That is not advice for you, of course, it is only a disclosure. As I write this at 10 p.m. Sunday evening, the Nikkei index is up and the global markets seem poised to continue their giddy eight-month long party.
Time will tell if that long, deep gash left by reality below the waterline has doomed the ship or not. I'm sensing that it's time to grab a lifeboat and leave the milling crowd of party-goers with the unenviable risk of sinking.
January 2010
Quote:
If everything is truly peachy and stunningly robust growth is just around the corner, then the VIX should trend around 19 or 20. No need for insurance against a market implosion if the entire economy is fundamentally sound, secure, and low-risk. On the other hand, this is also the perfect set-up for a "what goes up must come down" crash back to the March 2009 lows. (A double-bottom/retest would be par for the course.)
A "story" built on lies, prevarications, extrend-and-pretend accounting, Federal funding of everything under the sun, bogus statistics (birth-death model of adding millions of phantom jobs, anyone?) and transparent propaganda can come apart with ferocious speed. There are a lot of punters who are long and the exit is the size of a pet door.
Disclosure: I am short the market via puts, i.e. long the truth and short the propaganda.
June 2010
Quote:
7. The bubble will not complete until it retraces to its starting point around SPX 400. With the SPX at 1,090 as I type, that would imply a 65% drop from today's levels.
October 2010
Quote:
I just have a feeling that something is going to trigger a decline so sharp and "unexpected" that the mainstream media shills will be gulping for "answers" when the reality has been staring them in the face all year: the recovery is nothing but manipulation and those who believed it were simply delusional.
Maybe they will manage a few more manipulated rallies (pump it up before the market opens and then lock it down, the old "ramp and camp" which has proven so resilient), but this is like the passengers being herded back inside to listen to the band while the ship lists deeper into the water. You can only jam a market with no volume for so long, and then the whole thing comes apart. We are close to that moment.
October 2010
Quote:
The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun - Here is the evidence to support the idea that stocks are entering a Long Decline
July 2015
Quote:
History isn't especially kind to the faith that the market can be "saved" every month for years on end. China's authorities and stock market punters are learning this the hard way: when the sentiment has turned, every "save" gets sold by the smart money, and then by the "dumb" (i.e. margined) money as their hopes of new highs are shredded once again.
Can markets be saved an eighth time, a ninth time, a tenth time this year? How about next year? Another 12 months, another 12 saves? If the "saves" are going to run out, why wait to be the last sucker holding the bag when the Fed's fetid hot air fails to work its magic?
October 2015
Quote:
So the question going forward is: can the stock market completely ignore these changes and keep powering higher on the fumes of Mario Draghi's promises and another rate cut or three in China? At some point, reality will trump fumes, and the manic rally will falter and the mania in stocks will end in tears.
It's not just stocks. He's been wrong about peak oil, another housing collapse, global food crisis, here was his take on employment:
November 2009
Quote:
Put together the anecdotal evidence and the next 7 million jobs to be lost are already in the pipeline. I could go on and on about the small businesses whose owners are preparing to close "if things don't pick up a big way soon" and all the other signs that a new wave of massive job losses is rising. But you know that already if you've walked around with your eyes open.
By end of 2010 total US employees was higher, and continued to rise until about two months ago.
Through all this the one thing he's been consistent on is right on the original link provided by OP:
Thank you, John S. ($5/month), for your magnificently generous pledge to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.
The reason it's not like the others is this a disease-induced recession.
this too shall pass ......yeah it is nothing we had to deal with prior but so was the systemic collapse of our financial system in 2008 which looked like it had no way out .. a great depression was eminent.
while we have been effected greatly through this , once again it will pass and if we didn't tell the stories or lose someone which we did , most wouldn't remember it happened eventually , like all the other recessions .
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