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Quick, go look at Saudi oil production by year before and after 2006....... Shouldn't you be linking that in your post to show us the big drop off in total Saudi Oil production?
Oh wait, it didn't happen.
Dear Lawd. You are smarter than this. Especially with numbers. We have talked.
Not talking about "SAUDI." We are talking about GHAWAR. That is a particular (and LARGE) Oil Reservoir site in Saudi, but it is not all nor even most of Saudi Oil Production.
Ghawar HAS and IS following Hubbert Peak Oil extraction and production curve very closely. From:
While Ghawar is IN Saudi, it is just a sub-set of overall Saudi Production. Across time, ALL sites in Saudi will follow the same production curves. Added together, they will make a large production curve. Same as happened in the US for Conventional Oil. You really cannot not understand this, right?
ahhh. You are looking at this as some big Go-No-Go answer? As in the When / If The-World-Runs-Out-Of-Oil and then the DOOM-Ensues?
That part we agree upon -- Doom is Total Brainless Nonsense. Doomers do have some use in that they are experts in the various Worst Case Scenario(s). (You ever do Scenario studies? Shell also did those, along with Hubbert). But as predictive methods, Worst Case Scenarios are about as likely to be correct predictions as Best Case Scenarios -- which are also not likely to turn out at all, either. We barely hit this up-thread, but Doomers are a special case of Emotion Driven folks. I got a chance to directly study some a few years back. Their Doom is pre-existing and internal, and then they seek out external situations and scenarios to validate their inner Doom.
Hubbert was just modeling Resource Extraction of Conventional Oil. THAT is IT. All the rest are add-ons "by others." However, as each new pool or resource is found or added, that new resource will follow the same resource curve. Slow start -> Quick Rise -> Some Peak -> Fall Off -> Dwindling End.
The Doomers are what I was thinking about and usually the ones behind the PEAK OIL warnings. Sorry to have associated them with your idol.
Figured I would hit this one for you -- look-ahead is mostly ALL Silicon Solar PV. At $1 per Watt install, and then as low as 1 cent per Kilowatt-hour production Costs . . . it will wipe out EVERYTHING. Coal, Oil, Gas, Nukes . . . even Wind.
Silicon Solar PV has become the Cheapest, Cleanest, Fastest, Lowest Risk energy generation source EVER.
I work in and track permitting out some years ahead -- it is just about the only thing we are building.
Gasoline would have to be down to do about 10 cents per Gallon to compete.
If you say so but I'm still not buying solar stocks, lol.
The Doomers are what I was thinking about and usually the ones behind the PEAK OIL warnings. Sorry to have associated them with your idol.
hahahaha ahh.
Yeah Doomers are an interesting case study.
If you ever get into doing Scenario studies -- consider and try to understand Doomers for the Worst Case scenario.
btw, the big collapses that usually hit US are opposite of Doom (shortage, lack, etc). It is Surplus the US model cannot deal with -- surplus housing, surplus Oil, surplus Agriculture -- those are where US Economic Collapses come from.
If you say so but I'm still not buying solar stocks, lol.
All good, and would not recommend them. This going from Surplus to more Surplus. Sort of a race-to-the-bottom.
Like noted above, it is Surplus that takes US down.
By the time US hits some significant level of Solar -- Coal, Oil, Nukes, and likely even Gas will likely be wiped out. Looks like a large drop on GDP (if that matters) with all that.
Figured I would hit this one for you -- look-ahead is mostly ALL Silicon Solar PV. At $1 per Watt install, and then as low as 1 cent per Kilowatt-hour production Costs . . . it will wipe out EVERYTHING. Coal, Oil, Gas, Nukes . . . even Wind.
Silicon Solar PV has become the Cheapest, Cleanest, Fastest, Lowest Risk energy generation source EVER.
I work in and track permitting out some years ahead -- it is just about the only thing we are building.
Gasoline would have to be down to do about 10 cents per Gallon to compete.
According to article above California rolling black outs are largely due to renewables like Solar not being able to keep up with demand. Basically it cannot generate enough power.
Quote from article:
"Many of the outages took place in the afternoon, when power demand peaked as people starting turning up their air conditioning at the same time that solar power supplies started slowing down as the sun set."
If you ever get into doing Scenario studies -- consider and try to understand Doomers for the Worst Case scenario.
btw, the big collapses that usually hit US are opposite of Doom (shortage, lack, etc). It is Surplus the US model cannot deal with -- surplus housing, surplus Oil, surplus Agriculture -- those are where US Economic Collapses come from.
I would try to understand them more but we only have 10 years left before the world ends.
Yes one limitation is the receiving system's ability to interpret the results.
But by salt disrupting, do you mean doing it at the sea bed or through continental crust? If you're talking about the salt layer through continental crust yeah I am not aware we have a solution for that yet.
Supposedly there is suspected to be massive reserves beneath salt lakes but I've heard that is exactly why we cannot get to it, due to the salinity of not only the bed, but underneath as well.
All seismic data is based on sound waves reflecting off of the interface between layers of underground formations. Gaining an understanding of what the formations actually look like is dependent on determining the velocity of the sound waves through the layers. Salt velocities vary and it is difficult to accurately determine how thick the salt layers are, especially when the salt reacts to sound in the same manner as sedimentary rocks.
There are thick layers of salt all over the world. In Texas and offshore Gulf of Mexico, there is the Louann salt. There are layers offshore Brazil, and in the Mediterranean. We can easily drill below the salt, but no one wants to drill a well essentially blind, when the seismic data can't be accurately interpreted due to salt causing issues in calculating velocities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tencent
Deliberately...
Fracking is an environmental disaster. Ever hear of Flint, Michigan. Fracking needs too much water, plus can lead to groundwater contamination to boot.
The issues in Flint were caused by the chemical composition of the water combined with a bad decision to stop treating the water to prevent lead leaching. It had nothing to do with fracking.
I would try to understand them more but we only have 10 years left before the world ends.
The thermodynamics of oil depletion is wreaking havoc on the global oil industry, which is in turn wreaking havoc on the global economy and financial system.
The world isn't coming to an end, but many of the things we take for granted as "normal," are- mass motoring, mass mechanized agriculture, the military, the national electric grid, suburban sprawl, big box stores, mass tourism and international air travel, Disneyland, 8000 mile long supply chains, to name a few. Basically, the bigger, more complex, and more energy/resource/capital intensive something is, the more liable it is to fail. Everything is going to get much smaller and more local, whether we like it or not. And as unpleasant of a prospect as it is, the population is going to have to get far smaller....
Dick Cheney once said "the American way of life is non-negotiable." He was completely wrong, the "American Way Of Life™" is highly negotiable, but the laws of thermodynamics are not.
And no, "renewables" or nuclear energy are not going to save us.
First of all, "green/"renewable" technology and nuclear energy are really just oil derivatives- you can have neither of them without abundant oil.
Second, wind and solar are far too diffuse and intermittent to run a hi-tech economy and civilization.
Last edited by Taggerung; 06-13-2021 at 09:07 PM..
And no, "renewables" or nuclear energy are not going to save us.
First of all, "green/"renewable" technology and nuclear energy are really just oil derivatives- you can have neither of them without abundant oil.
Second, wind and solar are far too diffuse and intermittent to run a hi-tech economy and civilization.
You have it backwards. Oil is a derivative of solar power. Compressed plankton and plants wouldn't be in the ground unless there was sunlight to feed them in the first place.
California used to be a major oil producer. Our oil fields peaked in 1985 and output has fallen 70% since then. In the mean time, the state's total energy production has tripled, fueled by huge investments in solar, wind, and biomass.
It's going to hit 110 F here in many places and major blackouts are not expected. We're in better shape than last year, partly because of the completion of the world's largest battery storage (400 MW) facility. Once you couple large utility-scale storage to wind or solar, the intermittency problem goes away.
Who needs oil? We have a stable and clean nuclear reactor 93 million miles away (the Sun) and it gives us 1.3 kW of energy per square meter for free.
And so while the world might reach peak oil, it's not going to reach peak energy. The trend is for energy to get cheaper and more plentiful, even as oil slowly fades away.
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Shouldn't you be linking that in your post to show us the big drop off in total Saudi Oil production? 
