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Given that global populations will max out later this century, and have already maxed out in many developed countries, will infrastructure become a white elephant?
I'm not alleging any great wisdom on the part of American policymakers due to their and our inability to build infrastructure, beyond a mere reading of the prices for new infrastructure and gagging at the cost.
But is this reluctance to build actually the better policy, better than say China with its insane real estate industry or Spain's high speed rail? You already see an advanced case of "infrastructureitis" in Japan, where politicians are addicted to capital projects and the public debt is ~2.5x GDP.
If it actually saved us money, I'd say yes. Instead, our inability to build infrastructure often manifests itself with overpaid and corrupt projects that cost more than they should and that break down sooner than they should. In Honolulu, we have the disaster of the rail project, that is already billions over budget and already full of structural and other issues.
If it actually saved us money, I'd say yes. Instead, our inability to build infrastructure often manifests itself with overpaid and corrupt projects that cost more than they should and that break down sooner than they should. In Honolulu, we have the disaster of the rail project, that is already billions over budget and already full of structural and other issues.
Rail projects in the 21st century usually have terrible economics. I simply don't understand why the public, or certain elements of it, fetishize rail travel. I enjoy rail travel, but I see it as an anachronistic indulgence. I would never push for it as a public initiative.
If you think the Honolulu rail build out is a disaster, or California's HSR, just be grateful that we (the USA) tend to take on these larks of a project in bite-sized pieces. Compare that to China's HSR build out, which is already a white elephant. To use a lame business phrase, China "scaled it before they nailed it." Nailing it here means operating the rail lines as a going concern without losing gobs of money.
The USA is responding to price pressures and mostly saying, "no thanks" to new infrastructure. That is our saving grace.
Rail projects in the 21st century usually have terrible economics. I simply don't understand why the public, or certain elements of it, fetishize rail travel. I enjoy rail travel, but I see it as an anachronistic indulgence. I would never push for it as a public initiative.
If you think the Honolulu rail build out is a disaster, or California's HSR, just be grateful that we (the USA) tend to take on these larks of a project in bite-sized pieces. Compare that to China's HSR build out, which is already a white elephant. To use a lame business phrase, China "scaled it before they nailed it." Nailing it here means operating the rail lines as a going concern without losing gobs of money.
The USA is responding to price pressures and mostly saying, "no thanks" to new infrastructure. That is our saving grace.
Nearly $77 *billion* to build a few stations and not much subway ROW is an example of just how out of control costs are for major infrastructure projects are in USA.
If we were actually able to get things built, we'd waste even more money solving problems that don't exist and paying for overpriced infrastructure with no productive value.
Rail projects in the 21st century usually have terrible economics. I simply don't understand why the public, or certain elements of it, fetishize rail travel. I enjoy rail travel, but I see it as an anachronistic indulgence. I would never push for it as a public initiative.
Politicians fetishize it because major CAPEX means major grift opportunity. And people fetishize incompetent politicians who waste their money because wasting money makes them look like they're doing something. Rail travel is a solution in search of a problem. The problem hasn't existed since the advent of air travel and highways.
Rail, like large ships, is good for low value bulk freight that can afford to spend a week in transit trudging along at 30mph.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avondalist
If you think the Honolulu rail build out is a disaster, or California's HSR, just be grateful that we (the USA) tend to take on these larks of a project in bite-sized pieces. Compare that to China's HSR build out, which is already a white elephant. To use a lame business phrase, China "scaled it before they nailed it." Nailing it here means operating the rail lines as a going concern without losing gobs of money.
The USA is responding to price pressures and mostly saying, "no thanks" to new infrastructure. That is our saving grace.
Agreed. The perpetually insolvent Amtrak is reason enough for me to switch between "ABSOLUTELY NOT" and "FXXX NO" to any public infrastructure initiative.
Last edited by albert648; 03-09-2023 at 10:35 PM..
How ridiculous can you get? If they didn't build a road to your house, would you have bought it? If your workplace didn't have electricity, would you have a job? Of course infrastructure is necessary and more of it should be built. It's easy to point the finger at something you don't use as wasteful but it probably serves some purpose.
How ridiculous can you get? If they didn't build a road to your house, would you have bought it? If your workplace didn't have electricity, would you have a job? Of course infrastructure is necessary and more of it should be built. It's easy to point the finger at something you don't use as wasteful but it probably serves some purpose.
Existing infrastructure serves a purpose, but does new infrastructure? When your population stops growing, do you need to do more than just replace things that break down?
Existing infrastructure serves a purpose, but does new infrastructure? When your population stops growing, do you need to do more than just replace things that break down?
Our population hasn't stopped growing. And you are ignoring the movement of people between regions.
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