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Btw, why are you so against businesses staying here or building here? You know people have to work to go see the doctor/nurse. Bums don't see the doctor until there's something serious.
The nursing profession has become quite smug lately.
-chuck22b
This is where the conservation, unfortunately, takes an all predictable turn. You claim I said something I didn't ... and I have to correct it.
Of course I'm not against businesses staying here ... I'm just a pragmatist. Wishing isn't going to bring back the good ole days of high paying manufacturing jobs with little or no education required.
For a long time I wished those jobs would come back and if, by chance, they do great but ... time was running out and I realized I couldn't count on it. I've already been laid off and gone broke too many times so, I finally quit wishing and faced reality.
I got my butt kicked during the 2001 recession: I lost my house, all of my stocks, everything so ... I've been there and I learned my lesson. What amazes me is that a lot of these people have gone broke before too but keep making the same mistakes ... like taking out mortgages they can't afford.
Remember: this whole mess is essentially driven by people not paying their mortgages. Is there not some responsibility there? When I went broke ... it certainly wasn't anybody else's fault but my own. If that makes me smug ... so be it.
On a side note: obviously you don't know too much about the healthcare system. People don't have to work to get healthcare. People get healthcare all the time and never pay for it ... just check out your local ER. Government subsidies, Medicare, Medi Cal, county hospitals etc. pay for a lot of it.
Its easy for people to discount the thousands losing their production jobs if your job is doing just fine.
I wasn't saying that either. I was saying it's pretty impractical to expect those manufacturing jobs to come back ... wouldn't you, of all people, agree?
This isn't just about losing production jobs even though that's a huge part of it. It's also about people using their houses as cash registers ... walking away when the debt became too inconvenient ...
And, consequently, causing thousands of other people to lose their jobs because now the entire financial sytem is in complete turmoil.
I wasn't saying that either. I was saying it's pretty impractical to expect those manufacturing jobs to come back ... wouldn't you, of all people, agree?
I was more so making a general point, I wasn't really trying to say it applies to you, after all I know very little about you = )
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Originally Posted by sheri257
This isn't just about losing production jobs even though that's a huge part of it. It's also about people using their houses as cash registers ... walking away when the debt became too inconvenient ...
The fundamental problem is the imbalance between production and consumption. The only way we are able to consume more than we product is if another country is essentially willing to give us products in exchange for paper. Instead of buying our products with the dollars they receive, they pushed it back into our system by buying treasuries, Mortgage backed securities, credit card securities etc. The housing bubble would never have occurred at the level it did without foreign banks etc purchasing American debt.
Our trade deficit most be corrected, it can either happen by us exporting more or consuming less. I'm not sure I even know what chucks position is as the manufacturing he seems to be talking about hasn't left the country in large numbers. Very low still manufacturing (basically the stuff that it takes a day to learn how to do) left the country a long time ago, its the mid skilled manufacturing (wood working, metal working etc) that has left the country recently. I don't know whether the latter sort of manufacturing will start to come back or not, but I don't think its just wishful thinking to belief it may start coming back. If it does, its going to be either due to technology (robotics/AI) or a change in business/production strategy.
People don't have to work to get healthcare. People get healthcare all the time and never pay for it ... just check out your local ER. Government subsidies, Medicare, Medi Cal, county hospitals etc. pay for a lot of it.
Sorry Sheri257,
I have nothing against you or the nursing profession... in fact a lot of my neighbors, relatives, and a lot of people I know are going into or are in the field.
But, your answer that everybody is getting "FREE" health care is by far waay off and definitely unsustainable. Are you saying that I don't have to work? and I would get health care? How will all those nurses and doctors get paid when no one is paying into the system? Somebody has to pay. Unless you think nurses and doctors should pay taxes (essentially paying themselves), and everybody else doesn't need to work and can use the system. No wonder hospitals are going bankrupt.
If this continues to go on, and there's a glut of nurses (since there's no other "general" prospects for jobs)... guess what's going to happen to the pay and the number of jobs?
"The US market-based health care system relies heavily on private and not-for-profit health insurance, which is the primary source of coverage for most Americans. According to the United States Census Bureau, approximately 85% of Americans have health insurance; nearly 60% obtain it through an employer, while about 9% purchase it directly.[2] Various government agencies provide coverage to about 28% of Americans (there is some overlap in these figures)." Health insurance in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
What would happen when 100% of healthcare comes from government agencies?? Either taxes rise, pay decreases, people do without, or a combination of all three.
Here's a chart of GDP as % of Services. As you can see Medical Care AND Housing were the main two Service functions producing wealth leading up to 2005. As we've seen now... the housing glut and growth in GDP was unsustainable. So what services/jobs would be able to pay for and sustain the constant increase in Medical?? People who worked in housing in the past was able to pay for medical... now who will be able to in the future??
So, in short... don't be too cushy as a Nurse. If programs can't be funded, or if there isn't other jobs... Medical could also get into a lot of hurt. Even with an aging population, the Federal government won't be able to pay for all the services if there aren't any tax payers or a foreign country willing to buy up more American debt.
The fundamental problem is the imbalance between production and consumption. The only way we are able to consume more than we product is if another country is essentially willing to give us products in exchange for paper. Instead of buying our products with the dollars they receive, they pushed it back into our system by buying treasuries, Mortgage backed securities, credit card securities etc. The housing bubble would never have occurred at the level it did without foreign banks etc purchasing American debt.
This, I totally agree. The root of the problem is the trade deficit (Like sooooo many people cried about, picketed about, and TRIED to make people listen). China and other "authoritarian governments" were able to artificially "push" wages and their currency down and artificially bring companies (subsidies, tax breaks, etc.) over there...
By doing this they've been able to slowly drain American production capacity overseas (started waay back in the 90s... but Accelerated with China joining the WTO in the early 2000s).
As the trade deficit grew, like Humanoid said, our unequal trade partners had to figure out ways to keep their currency and wages low, and pushed the trade imbalance back to the US (through purchasing our debt instead of putting the money and investing in their Country - Hey, American Companies were doing the "investing" for them - and restrictions on the % of ownership and having to have "partnerships" prevented total American control)... they were able to create a feedback loop to fund Americans with easy Credit and a means to increase THEIR production.
I won't be surprised to hear struggling, CASH Strapped American companies overseas having their facilities BOUGHT out from their Chinese "partners". WAIT... stop the presses... it's already happening with a lot of tech manufacturers... :O
I really don't blame Americans... credit was sooo easy! and job prospects were dwindling everyday... and we've had a few decades of VERY easy credit funded by our unequal trade partners (Saudi Arabia, China, etc.). With easy credit people buy things... people see people buy things and think we're prospering... people buy things... sees other people... and likewise it perpetuates itself.
If credit wasn't available... we wouldn't have been able to spend! PERIOD! Look at us now... with severe credit contraction... do you see Americans spending like crazy anymore? Go ahead and try to spend! I dear you! of course... there's no money.
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Our trade deficit most be corrected, it can either happen by us exporting more or consuming less. I'm not sure I even know what chucks position is as the manufacturing he seems to be talking about hasn't left the country in large numbers. Very low still manufacturing (basically the stuff that it takes a day to learn how to do) left the country a long time ago, its the mid skilled manufacturing (wood working, metal working etc) that has left the country recently. I don't know whether the latter sort of manufacturing will start to come back or not, but I don't think its just wishful thinking to belief it may start coming back. If it does, its going to be either due to technology (robotics/AI) or a change in business/production strategy.
We can do BOTH. Start consuming less... and start producing More.
I think as the foreigners, especially China, finally figures out that America is on it's last string (in terms of buying their goods), and start demanding payment (for the government bonds - basically what's going on now restricting credit, and shifting away from American dollars) they can finally reap the benefits of their country and countryman's hard work and ample savings. Wages will rise (like Mathguy said), their currency will rise, and American companies (who weren't truly in control over there) will be weened out.
Anyhow... this will happen. The writing is on the wall... written in economic theories on trade, subsidies, price fixing, growth, and the flow of capital. It's interesting to see it happen in real life... but not interesting to feel the pain. Hopefully China will be merciful... and American companies will wise-up before it's really too late. Or is it already too late?
I don't have anything against free trade. It's about competition and innovation and productivity. The Europeans, Japanese, and the US have had a relatively healthy trade relationship one upping each other on production (innovation) and technology (America like I previously mentioned is actually the most productive per capita Country in the World). It's when there is an unfair (pushing wages down, pushing currency down, excessive subsidies, pushing imbalanced dollars back into the system - instead of spending at home... or giving it to the wage earners, and tariffs on imports)... that causes the extreme imbalances.
China had a long-term plan... sacrificing (literally - human toll) the short-term for longer term prosperity. Americans and American Companies on the other hand took the bait... and were short-sighted.
There was an email that was circulating around the 'net last spring that said the house of cards would come down in September of 2008, and the next Great Depression would begin. Here we are, and it looks like that doom and gloom email actually had some truth to it. I worry because our generation isn't prepared to go through what those who lived through the 1930s went through. I fear there will be lots of civil unrest and suicides over the next few years. The ones in the best position right now - rural dwellers who have the land to grow their own food. If you live in the country (or even if you don't), stock up on seeds to grow basic vegetables and learn to grow them. You will NEED to know this in this next decade.
I guess that would be someone like me then. I live in the South, have had gardens forever and can and freeze my food, own some land that I could plant more if needed, paid off my mortgage and have very little debt, the majority of it is for dh's business in his equipment, one of which will be paid in November.
Does this mean that I will be more prepared to handle this severe downturn and have myself and my family survive as those that did during the depression?
I certainly hope so, as I have been working towards being debt free for 5 years now. Got pretty darn close. sigh.
Go ahead and try to spend! I dear you! of course... there's no money.
Credit is contracting, but personally I haven't been effected yet. I've been expecting to have my credit limits cut for awhile, but instead I get credit limit increases? Have any idea how they are determining who to cut off? Perhaps, they are looking at a surge in recent small transactions. That would be a pretty good way to find the people that are using it for living costs instead of a big one time purchase.
Anyhow, I don't think China is going to fair much better than we are. In fact in some sense they may be worse off. Their savings is going to be debased by high inflation in the coming years, they haven't transformed their economy yet and they are holding a crap load of dollars. Many of the US assets for sale are toxic and I can't help to think that the Sandis, Chinese etc are sorta of seen as the suckers you can sell your junk to.
Credit is contracting, but personally I haven't been effected yet. I've been expecting to have my credit limits cut for awhile, but instead I get credit limit increases? Have any idea how they are determining who to cut off? Perhaps, they are looking at a surge in recent small transactions. That would be a pretty good way to find the people that are using it for living costs instead of a big one time purchase.
Yea, we're not getting really any rate changes or anything since we don't have a revolving balance. The people hardest hit are probably those that used their credit the most in the first place.
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Anyhow, I don't think China is going to fair much better than we are. In fact in some sense they may be worse off. Their savings is going to be debased by high inflation in the coming years, they haven't transformed their economy yet and they are holding a crap load of dollars. Many of the US assets for sale are toxic and I can't help to think that the Sandis, Chinese etc are sorta of seen as the suckers you can sell your junk to.
I'm not sure... but I think they're going to hurt in the short/mid term (why I think commodities still have some room to drop) since they didn't count on the US imploding so fast. If we gave them a few more years they could of gotten more of their books cleared of our toxicity and be less reliant on their exports. Either way, the good thing is that they are the creditor... and we're the debtor.... not to mention the huge glut of savings they can use to prop up internal development. And with what our government is doing and how things are starting to shape up... we'll be pretty much directly paying them through our taxes (so they are eventually going to get paid - instead of the banks just going bankrupt and defaulting on them).
Anyhow... I hope they are able to manage to not get dragged down with us, since we'll need them to be more self-sustaining to buy our production as their wages and currency go up. Global growth is going to be somewhat our savior... and only way for us to ease/reduce our trade deficit.
Otherwise... we're going to be on a very long ride if everybody falls.
-chuck22b
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