Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Jak, you are just way wrong on that one. Are you trying to tell me that the 10-yr bond yield was below 2.60 before the crisis??
i think you mis-read or i didnt phrase it right. what i tried to say was rates on mortgages were dropping from where they were before the crises and all during the crisis right up until now. at the same time since bond rates bottomed out in dec 2008 rates were rising on bonds like crazy .the 10 year stood at 2.04% in dec 2008 and rose to almost 3%a few months ago all the while mortgage rates were dropping. they were moving in opposite directions. i also made reference to the long bond, thats the 30 yr. it jumped even more in rates ,up over 70% since bottoming during the crises in dec 2008.
clear now?
Last edited by mathjak107; 10-13-2010 at 04:26 AM..
i think you mis-read or i didnt phrase it right. what i tried to say was rates on mortgages were dropping from where they were before the crises and all during the crisis right up until now. at the same time since bond rates bottomed out in dec 2008 rates were rising on bonds like crazy .the 10 year stood at 2.04% in dec 2008 and rose to almost 3%a few months ago all the while mortgage rates were dropping. they were moving in opposite directions. i also made reference to the long bond, thats the 30 yr. it jumped even more in rates ,up over 70% since bottoming during the crises in dec 2008.
clear now?
I'm clear you have no idea what you are talking about as far as US Treasury bonds are concerned.
ya think??????????? obviously i know a lot more then you do if your doubting what i said.. take a look at the historical data for the bonds and then tell me who is wrong.
are you telling me yields on the 10 year didnt close in the low 2% range in dec 2008 and then rise to almost 3% after that while at the same time mortage rates were falling?
or are you telling me the long bond ,30 year didnt go from the 2.6 % range in dec 2008 to almost 5% after that , while mortgage rates were falling?
perhaps maybe its just math your not good at?
Last edited by mathjak107; 10-14-2010 at 02:56 AM..
Okay, I went to federalreserve.gov to settle this matter. Sorry, you are correct.
What you should understand here is that long bond prices in Dec '08 where just a temporary blip due to a massive flight-to-quality as the financial system crashed, Lehman went BK, etc.
The reason mortgage rates ignored that Dec '08 bond blip is because it was very short lived, i.e. a blip.
What I'm talking about is more longer term trends in bond yields related to market forces and trends rather than a unique, short-lived "emergency" event, although of course the bond movements in Dec '08 were indeed completely "real" and legitimate. Sorry I slammed you, you were right, I was wrong about you. BTW, when you use "your" as a contraction of "you are", and you use "its" as a contraction of "it is", you MUST use an apostrophe, i.e. "maybe it's just math you're not good at". This will help you not seem like a dope. When using the possessive case, you MUST NOT use an apostrophe strictly in the cases of "its" and "your", e.g. "Your car broke down while I was driving it, and its carburetor exploded."
Now where is User_ID, is he running scared and won't address my recent post?
I commend you for fessing up.one of the few who will
it was a blip for the reason you said but the important thing is that while the fed was forcing mortgage rate securities lower driving down mortgages the worlds investors didnt see it that way and even today there is a divergence between bonds and mortgages as mortgages broke new lows and the 30 year is still quite higher and the 10 year somewhat higher .....
Last edited by mathjak107; 10-14-2010 at 01:21 PM..
I commend you for fessing up.one of the few who will
it was a blip for the reason you said but the important thing is that while the fed was forcing mortgage rate securities lower driving down mortgages the worlds investors didnt see it that way and even today there is a divergence between bonds and mortgages as mortgages broke new lows and the 30 year is still quite higher and the 10 year somewhat higher .....
You keep saying this stuff that is complete nonsense. Long bond yields are not high right now, quite the opposite.
Here are the 10-year bond yields on select dates (source: FederalReserve.gov):
01/06/2006 4.37
07/07/2006 5.18
01/05/2007 4.66
07/06/2007 5.10
01/11/2008 3.85
07/04/2008 4.00
01/09/2009 2.48
07/03/2009 3.53
01/01/2010 3.83
07/02/2010 2.99
09/03/2010 2.59
10/01/2010 2.52
For chrissakes kid, bond yields are not high right now!
its not that rates are high, its that rates on treasuries at points thru out the last 2 years were much higher then their lows. april the 10 year was over 4% and the long bond hit just under 5%.. during the same time period mortgages were hitting new lows .there was kind of a disconnect for a while. rates on treasuries this year have dropped back down to match the mbs rates.
'Maybe the Fed can fool some of the people some of the time, but it can’t fool all of the people all of the time. In the process, policy makers may end up fooling themselves that they can create expectations of a little more inflation without delivering a lot of the real thing.'
Why is that? You are referring to announcements made after my comment was made.
Quote:
Originally Posted by POhdNcrzy
What do you think the rise in equities is all about. The market's not stupid. They are piling into stocks because stocks values will surge along with the relatively large inflation that's coming soon.
The rise in equities? Equities are still significantly below what they were before the financial crisis.
If QE part 1 did not produce inflation, why exactly would QE part 2? The employment situation is even worse today than it was then. I suppose on some planets you get inflation with huge over-capacity, but not here on earth.
Commodity inflation will get us. Cotton closed up today at at 140 year high.
Hasn't been this high since 1870..Reconstruction.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
