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There is all kinds of funny stuff out there from these "experts" about 2010.
Look at Peter Schiff with all his predictions of a dollar collapse in 2010, unemployment worse by the end of 2010, etc. There is a video from Peter Schiff in January 2010 where he advices you don't want to invest in any U.S. retailers or financials (they both went up with S&P Retail Index up about 25%) and that international stocks would outperform U.S. in 2010.
You might as well throw darts at a board instead of listening to that monkey.
Krugman is another one with his "reasonably high chance the U.S. economy will contract in 2010" prediction. That is the beauty of being an economic prognosticator you don't get called to task for poor performance like most real jobs. He'll just write new columns.
There is all kinds of funny stuff out there from these "experts" about 2010.
Look at Peter Schiff with all his predictions of a dollar collapse in 2010, unemployment worse by the end of 2010, etc. There is a video from Peter Schiff in January 2010 where he advices you don't want to invest in any U.S. retailers or financials (they both went up with S&P Retail Index up about 25%) and that international stocks would outperform U.S. in 2010.
You might as well throw darts at a board instead of listening to that monkey.
Krugman is another one with his "reasonably high chance the U.S. economy will contract in 2010" prediction. That is the beauty of being an economic prognosticator you don't get called to task for poor performance like most real jobs. He'll just write new columns.
It looks like there are a lot of economists that need to throw their degree in the garbage. The common person could have just as much of a chance predicting where we go.
Growth or recession in 2007?
Quote:
But most economists say that recession will not spread to the overall economy. In a poll of 21 prominent economists conducted by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the respondents expected economic growth of a median 2.5% in 2007, down from 3.3% in 2006.
The majority of economists, however, say the economy will weather this storm, as it almost always does. It's hard to put the resilient U.S. economy into a recession, they say. Over the past 17 years, the economy has been in recession for just eight months. That's less than 4% of the time.
I can tell you firsthand that I was right. Close to my parent's home a friend just purchased a home built in 1960 for 92,000.00 At the height of the boom some lane-brain bought the home for 340,000.00 and ended up in foreclosure. The house sold new in 1960 for 15,000.00 and with "official" inflation that would be 110,501.35 today.
You can purchase a home for maybe 90 or 100K but with its age you'll have to put in maybe 50-75K to upgrade it (not granite counters but just replacing windows, bathrooms , walls and insulation, driveway, roof, etc). You have to take into consideration the total $ amount, not just the pay price. Then, with housing prices dropping, will you ever recover what you put in?
Predictions of any kind are only OPINIONS unless a formal study of some kind is conducted that (can be shown to be) totally unbiased and employs analysis, either qualitative or quantitative or a combination of the two. Whatever economist predicts good stuff or bad stuff for the future needs to have her/his feet held to the fire about how their study was conducted. It should be peer-reviewed as well.
You can purchase a home for maybe 90 or 100K but with its age you'll have to put in maybe 50-75K to upgrade it (not granite counters but just replacing windows, bathrooms , walls and insulation, driveway, roof, etc). You have to take into consideration the total $ amount, not just the pay price. Then, with housing prices dropping, will you ever recover what you put in?
It doesn't cost $50,000 for repairs, and if the house needs that much repair work then your offer should be $50,000 and not $100,000.
You can still buy a 3-bedroom ranch on an acre+ for $90,000 to $120,000 around here and they're move-in ready. You don't have to make any repairs at all, and if you do anything it all, it's paint or replace the carpet because you don't like the colors, not because they're ill kept.
It's kind of silly to buy a house for $90,000 then effect $50,000 in repairs when you can just buy a house for $130,000 and spend nothing on repairs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw
There is all kinds of funny stuff out there from these "experts" about 2010.
Look at Peter Schiff with all his predictions of a dollar collapse in 2010, unemployment worse by the end of 2010, etc. There is a video from Peter Schiff in January 2010 where he advices you don't want to invest in any U.S. retailers or financials (they both went up with S&P Retail Index up about 25%) and that international stocks would outperform U.S. in 2010.
You might as well throw darts at a board instead of listening to that monkey.
Krugman is another one with his "reasonably high chance the U.S. economy will contract in 2010" prediction. That is the beauty of being an economic prognosticator you don't get called to task for poor performance like most real jobs. He'll just write new columns.
Most of the "experts" aren't really economists, rather they're finance and accounting majors.
No serious economist would ever even mention the Stock Market, since it is irrelevant. The economy and the Stock Market operate independently, and that's been repeatedly proven over the last century.
If you look at the dismal performance of stocks from 1937-1942 and concluded that the economy was doing poorly because stocks were, then you'd be wrong, because the economy grew by 6%-20% each and every quarter (averaging 12.5% per quarter) for 91 straight quarters.
During the 1973-74 market crash, if you had said the economy was doing poorly, you'd be wrong again. Employers were giving raises left and right to employees to the point that it caused Wage Inflation and started driving prices up which forced Nixon to implement a Wage & Price Freeze.
Stock Markets aren't even necessary for an economy. You could ban markets or stocks and it would have no effect on the economy.
If someone is screaming "Stock Market" then it's probably because they have a book to sell, or they're trying to steer you into gold, silver, time-shares or cattle.
Look at Peter Schiff with all his predictions of a dollar collapse in 2010, unemployment worse by the end of 2010, etc. There is a video from Peter Schiff in January 2010 where he advices you don't want to invest in any U.S. retailers or financials (they both went up with S&P Retail Index up about 25%) and that international stocks would outperform U.S. in 2010.
You might as well throw darts at a board instead of listening to that monkey.
Serious dart throwers might take offense at their sacred game being compared to the likes of Peter Schiff.
You can still buy a 3-bedroom ranch on an acre+ for $90,000 to $120,000 around here and they're move-in ready. You don't have to make any repairs at all, and if you do anything it all, it's paint or replace the carpet because you don't like the colors, not because they're ill kept.
Plenty around here too in the burbs of Phoenix, not on an acre but pretty nice 3BR homes built post Y2k that certainly don't need 50k in repairs to move in.
Interesting article on how economists such as Dr. Doom who correctly predicted extreme events will most likely be have a worse forecasting record than more mainstream economists in the long run.
Just another chicken little. The economy runs in cycles. There are bad times and then there are good times. The economy is growing and starting to get better and to follow it will be another recession.
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