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But you like numbers, not other folks' conclusions and opinions, right? Here is a very accurate history of the situation from a Texas sized model that has now expanded to the US as a whole and looks like will follow worldwide.
From that you can see in very accurate and true records that we are back down to 1930's level production -- with 4 times as many wells -- and are down to about 1/3 of our "peak."
This is irrelevant to my point, there are other ways to produce gasoline and even though they may be inefficient they may still be pursued. The alternative requires a major paradigm shift, but I think is less likely.
Also, I said "at least directly" regarding the chips for a reason. Certainly this indirectly effects me, but I'm not doing anything that depends on either outcome as I imagine you are...
There's oil everywhere and we're going to keep using it and we're not going to drive dinky little gay cars because were American's and like powerful, fast stuff. Personally I wouldn't drive anything with less than 350HP and I take pride in getting tickets for doing triple digits (though my wife normally buys something of equal value to the ticket, so that sucks).
Anyway, until someone can build a non internal combustion car that is very mean sounding, very cool looking, and extremely fast I'll keep paying whatever they want for the real deal. Plus, at my age it's the only way to get hot chicks to notice me
Seems like they have made some new finds up North Dakota way and Canada seems to be overflowing with the stuff. The area around Newfoundland seems to be quite promising and the oil sands in Alberta are virtually limitless.
Nope.
The Bakken (Dakotas) -- Is not Oil, it is shale. Estimates are typically single digit percentage recovery.
Newfies canceled their refinery project as it is not like to play out profitable, and at max the Tar Sands cannot keep up with falling production elsewhere -- while causing tremendous environmental damage to boot.
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People keep saying we are peaking yet they keep finding more and more of the stuff. Exxons discoveries last year exceeded what they actually pumped out of current sources.
It is a max production problem. More may (and by all models, should) be found, but the Big Easy pools -- just like by the Texas models -- have been found and tapped.
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Along with alternative options like LPG, ethanol and biofuels, no one on this forum will ever have to worry about fueling a car in their lifetimes baring some cataclysmic event like nuclear war.
By the math -- they do not cover the load in the long term. Can you show ANY math that says any difference? All I am saying is that putting renewable sourced electric ground transportation in the mix gives a permanent long term solution that costs less than all other options right from the start.
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I think the problem with a lot of the hysteria is 1. people underestimate just how big the earth really is and 2. they want control over your life. Taking away your car is taking away your personal freedom and they are going to tell you whatever they need to make that happen.
Or 3. Are actually capable of doing the math, rather than slogans. Anyone who has done the math and stated so publicly -- like Shell or Mercedes comes to the same conclusion -- Oil's best days are behind us.
Or 3. Are actually capable of doing the math, rather than slogans. Anyone who has done the math and stated so publicly -- like Shell or Mercedes comes to the same conclusion -- Oil's best days are behind us.
Phillip, seems you like math so let me ask you this. If oil is so scarce why is it so cheap? Shouldn't the math reflect the fact that we're running out of the stuff? Supply vs Demand? In fact, why is it that a gallon of gasoline is less expensive than a gallon of milk? Are cows more scarce than oil?
Or think of it this way; I drive about 1000 miles a month. I get about 15mpg. Thats 66.6 gallons a month. At $2.75 gallon thats a whopping $183 a month. I blow more than that each month I things I can't even remember.
Help me understand why the math says oil is cheap but everyone tells me we're running out of the stuff.
This is irrelevant to my point, there are other ways to produce gasoline and even though they may be inefficient they may still be pursued. The alternative requires a major paradigm shift, but I think is less likely.
Technically I agree that you are correct -- even electricity can be directly harnessed to make oil if that were the object of the exercise. Oil was always popular because it was "cheap." Once it stop(s/ed) being cheap it becomes a painful thing. Once it becomes dear and expensive -- it is a painful thing. Pain promotes change and paradigm shifts.
Driving (what this thread is about) reduces significantly at $4 to $5 a gallon, and stops before $10. Point being, even it could be produced by various alternate methods, the customer cannot afford it. Game Over.
But for the sake of discussion -- Let's say from our other discussions that you are correct about a pending economic recovery -- what happens to oil prices, then?
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Also, I said "at least directly" regarding the chips for a reason. Certainly this indirectly effects me, but I'm not doing anything that depends on either outcome as I imagine you are...
On the personal front, we are taking the farm off of oil-based fuel. Going all electric. Figured it was more important that folks eat rather than drive. We have access to some of the senior engineering folks in refinery and oil patch land and figured out about two years ago where this is likely heading.
For the farm, we come out a winner either way, as it costs less to operate fully electric from renewable sources, anyway. We are getting the equipment build out for the farm as part of a large lab project at a technical college I am teaching at. Figure it gives the students some future based skills rather than the present -- as you say -- paradigm.
If the financial sector can be eliminated I am confident that the best minds would shift to finding solutions to our problems rather than creating derivatives, credit-default swaps, etc. I know that the energy problem can be solved because so much energy surrounds us. Matter is energy and the sun emits tremendous energy from nuclear sources. The trick is to solve the mysteries of gravity, magnetism and light. Instead people were busy flipping houses and stealing value to live lives of luxury. Useless professions like law suck the life out of the productive economy. The college-industrial complex closed off opportunities for those thinking "outside the loop". People forget that energy is the life of an economy and without it, progress is impossible. "Green living" is horrible, just look at how the third world lives without electricity or automobiles, or anything. Eventually the energy shortages will be solved, and economies will rebound.
Given the choice what would you rather have, unlimited gold or unlimited energy? If I had access to all the energy I could ever use for free, it would make me the richest person in the world. If people like Nikola Tesla were active now, we would have gone beyond fossil fuels at this time. Instead we gave our best resources to financiers and lawyers. Sad.
Phillip, seems you like math so let me ask you this. If oil is so scarce why is it so cheap? Shouldn't the math reflect the fact that we're running out of the stuff? Supply vs Demand? In fact, why is it that a gallon of gasoline is less expensive than a gallon of milk? Are cows more scarce than oil?
Or think of it this way; I drive about 1000 miles a month. I get about 15mpg. Thats 66.6 gallons a month. At $2.75 gallon thats a whopping $183 a month. I blow more than that each month I things I can't even remember.
Help me understand why the math says oil is cheap but everyone tells me we're running out of the stuff.
Dunno that you can compare milk? Pretty much truly an Apples and Orange comparison thing? But, wtf -- lets throw in a gallon of water at $0.25 and a gallon of paint at $25, since we going for the absurd.
But being real -- First -- it is a Production v. Demand equation -- not a Total Supply v. Demand equation. As long as demand is depressed (like the present downturn/recession/depression -- choose your term) we live in some surplus. When and if there is a recovery there is no capacity to increase production. Go back and take a look at that Texas model. If there were a way to increase production during price spikes -- we would have done it. Geophysics just does not work that way.
Meanwhile production keeps falling to meet the fallen demand. If production keeps falling to the reduced demand and they meet, the prices head up again.
As far as comparing any of personal models to the prices and relative expenses it may be more useful to compare to what real world average Americans do?
But take your sample miles and costs -- If we work with some real model numbers -- this looks like a fair set of numbers? Tell me different if you see so.
U S Average Household Financial Data (http://online-financial-directory.com/default.aspx - broken link)
Current Approximate U S Household Average
Annual Income $48,000
Number of People 2.6
Miles Driven per Year 21,000
Gasoline Miles per Gallon(MPG) 21
A median household income of $48,000. So take the typical US two working adults household at 21,000 miles, and let's improve their mileage to the stated 21 mpg over your 15.
21000 miles / 21 mpg = 1000 gallons a year.
at $2.50 a gallon that is $2500 or a little over 5% of their income.
at $4.00 a gallon (we have already seen that in "good" times) that is $4000, or a little over 8% of their income.
at $5.00 a gallon (let's say you are correct about an economic recovery) that is $5000 or over 10% of their income.
Just how much of their income are they willing to lose to the gasoline addiction?
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