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Comparing economic cycles to hurricanes and World Wars is a bit far fetched.
Our US history is full of boom/bust cycles. A bit of delving into the details can uncover many similarities. By studying them one can made an educated guess.
Frightening chart of income disparities. We currently resemble the roaring 20's.
When it gets too far out of whack..a rebalancing occurs..a part of boom & bust cycles.
Frightening chart of income disparities. We currently resemble the roaring 20's.
When it gets too far out of whack..a rebalancing occurs..a part of boom & bust cycles.
Comparing economic cycles to hurricanes and World Wars is a bit far fetched.
Our US history is full of boom/bust cycles. A bit of delving into the details can uncover many similarities. By studying them one can made an educated guess.
True, lots of boom busts. I thought it was a bit much too, world wars and such and sun cycles...then I saw there has been research done for 100 years+ on it and it does make some sense actually. Hurricanes are weather patterns as are droughts. These are influenced by solar cycles, that is fact. Are people affected by a large amount of different kinds of radiation/emf/etc or affected by a huge decrease they are accustomed too? Possibly. It has been proven that emf fields do affect brain development and many functions of cells.
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id
"Similar to 1928, the DOW in 2009 has seen an increase of over 50% and looks to climb up as the economy is still faltering. Could we be heading towards a stock bubble and crash?"
This is so stupid, yeah the DOW is up 50% from the lows in March after it had just crashed. Stocks are still well below their highs before the recession hit.
....it does look like a stock bubble is coming. The last crash was not a bubble crash. A bubble is usually defined by an incredible amount of people speculating that should not be in that field. The housing bubble was like that as evidenced by people with no credit, job, or money were buying 400,000 houses with no money down. Stocks just went up to 14,000 and crashed a bit with fallout from the land bubble crash....as it did in the 20s. Now stocks are rocketing...with no underlying reason. Many people I talk to are already starting to talk like they did during the land bubble.. "now is the time to buy stocks" "get in now before it gets too high" "don't miss out" etc.... and brokerages are starting to really push very odd money makers like those special funds with great returns but also have a caveat of not allowing you to take your money out if the fund goes below a certain level... yea....let's get those ETFs and other great packages like the securitized loans going (they are starting to really sell now....sigh) here we go again.
Now stocks are rocketing...with no underlying reason.
Stocks are not "rocketing". Most are still well off their 52 week high and even farther off where they were at the height of the boom.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatguywho
Many people I talk to are already starting to talk like they did during the land bubble.. "now is the time to buy stocks" "get in now before it gets too high" "don't miss out" etc.... and brokerages are starting to really push very odd money makers like those special funds with great returns but also have a caveat of not allowing you to take your money out if the fund goes below a certain level... yea....let's get those ETFs and other great packages like the securitized loans going (they are starting to really sell now....sigh) here we go again.
That is true to an extent but the time to buy was really last March. There is still value out there but you need to do more analysis.
Regarding ETFs - which I have played in and made money in - the risk management department of the brokerage I work with have made me jump through hoops before they would let me invest in them. Not all brokerages are the same.
A paper showing many similarities of the 20s and 30s and today. Side notes on the 70s recession also.
From h1n1, land booms, stock booms, oil booms, gold booms, war, and solar cycles......
And a definite feeling that their will be a stock bubble....a big one...in our near future. And of course the resultant crash.
Take a look and rant, flame, agree, or research...
enjoy.
There was a crash in 1893-97...there have been others. Those just aren't dramatic enough for the gloom and doomers. Rather simplistic to try to FORCE comparison to the great depression just because it's the only one people know a little bit about.
I just don't put a lot of faith in these reverse engineered comparisons by people selling books. Why not just add "....and it's all the Democrats fault" or "and it's all Bush's fault" to sell more books.
You don't hear a lot about it because it only lasted about a year, but in 1958, yes in the heart of what is supposedly the "American Decade" there was a recession actually almost as deep as now. Unemployment only "peaked" at 7.5%, but there were a lot of women not in the work force then, etc.
But the most telling number is GDP drops. The first quarter of 1958 had an annual GDP drop over 10 PERCENT, almost double the worst quarterly "annualized" GDP drop of this recession, and the only quarter outside of the Great Depression that had a double-digit annual drop. Time Magazine has been noting that forgotten recession in a pictoral: The Recession of 1958 - Photo Essays - TIME
And just last week, as part of an ongoing Time Magazine focus on the troubled city of Detroit, they noted this old article about Detroit during the 1958 recession. If it weren't for words like "Negro" instead of "black" or "African-American", you could blot out the date and easily think this piece could have been writted today, including a section about jobs never coming back and about Detroit and the auto industry being the epicenter of it (including car companies going out of business):
Comparing economic cycles to hurricanes and World Wars is a bit far fetched.
Our US history is full of boom/bust cycles. A bit of delving into the details can uncover many similarities. By studying them one can made an educated guess.
But it just liike saying we will have a deopression based on simialrites. If the most knowledgable can see it coming a onth vefore no one can. oif course there are the sky is falling all the time and sunday moprning quaterbacks everywhere.But you can see none actually know or they would be the world's riched person;instead of on a gorum like this.
Stocks just went up to 14,000 and crashed a bit with fallout from the land bubble crash....
Is this a joke? "Crashed a bit"? The S&P 500 crashed by 57%, that is the largest crash since the depression!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatguywho
Now stocks are rocketing...with no underlying reason.
The S&P 500 is still down around 34% from peak. And what is the underlying reason? Stocks massively crashed. Large crashes tend to be followed by rallies, which usually peak after a short while and then correct a bit.
I just don't put a lot of faith in these reverse engineered comparisons by people selling books. Why not just add "....and it's all the Democrats fault" or "and it's all Bush's fault" to sell more books.
Understand your concern. There is no book or books..no ads either. No memberships, no business affiliations. Just warnings.
Banks make money from lending. They have access to 27 trillion plus with no where or no one to lend to. The push to put some 100 trillion from social security is chugging along too.
Stocks have shot up 50%+ in record time...
The only place left for the financial institutions to make money lending is stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.
The banks pushed in early 2000s to be allowed to act as realtors on both sides of the transactions. They wanted access to full title and insurance services too. They received some of that and we had a land boom of historical proportions.
Now, the big brokerages are.....'banks' as they have become one. What could possibly go wrong with that arrangement?
Hello historic stock and commodities bubble.....
Hello 'its time to buy stock'
hello 'new margin lending allows for low income stock leveraging'
hello 'no end in site'
Hello 18,000 dow
Hello 'its going to 30,000 talk'
Hello 'oh sh#t, its at 18,000 and crashing'
Hello 'jon stewart: "Hey Cramer, come here for a minute!" '
sigh
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