The Great Depression, is history repeating itself? A historical perspective (loans, interest)
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The authors also wrote another interesting book you might want to look at based on 80 year cycles. They say America is coming up on a major crisis around 2018 or 2020 if the cycle repeats itself:
The Fourth Turning by William Straus and Neil Howe
"Similar to 1928, the DOW in 2009 has seen an increase of over 50% and looks to climb up as the economy is still faltering. Could we be heading towards a stock bubble and crash?"
This is so stupid, yeah the DOW is up 50% from the lows in March after it had just crashed. Stocks are still well below their highs before the recession hit.
"Similar to 1928, the DOW in 2009 has seen an increase of over 50% and looks to climb up as the economy is still faltering. Could we be heading towards a stock bubble and crash?"
This is so stupid, yeah the DOW is up 50% from the lows in March after it had just crashed. Stocks are still well below their highs before the recession hit.
yes, they are up. The crash is related to the land boom and lending, not to stocks themselves.
Now is the time of the stock boom. Stocks tripled in value from their lowpoint crash of 1923 or so. Then they fell.
Times are a bit different and things never happen the same way twice (as per Aslan...lol).. But ....hmmm
You know, I have been thinking about this for the last 5 months and I thought my ideas were a bit original. I now see the old 80 year thing as well as the sunspot/cycle thing is really an advanced theory.
that just makes the idea of a stock crash and another war that much more real though.
We just had two stock booms in this decade, the idea that there is going to be another one is a pretty odd to say the least. We are already 2-3 years into this recession, if you're going to make analogies look at 1931~1932. There was of course a few rallies during the depression, but never did stocks reach their peak again. I would expect to see the same behavior this time around, a few rallies before stocks stabilize. But stocks were not as inflated going into this recession as they were during the depression.
There are those that praise President Roosevelt as some sort of savior of the masses and those who look at the stuff he ramrodded through, even stacking the Supreme Court, as one of the single most egregious abuses of the Presidency.
I suppose it would not be hard to find critics to claim that Nixon, Reagan, Clinton or Bush 43 were also guilty of using their office in ways that were abusive. Similarly there are already a lot people that are very worried about what Obama is trying to do.
My take is that no matter what he and his party rams through in Congress as long the VOTERS get to the pols and throw the BUMS from his party OUT we will have a much easier to deal with dead-lock with one party holding the White House and the opposition in Congress. That generally is best. When one party holds both the WH and Congress things tend not to work out in the interest of the PEOPLE for too long...
If you look back far enough you can see similar stories like this repeating themselves. If you read accounts by H.G. Wells in The New Machiavelli he documents very similar happenings in a recession in England during the Victorian era. Where financing was very cheap, those who took out loans were over consuming, many were supported by the new boom in housing, then an extreme rash of defaults and severe recession for 65 months of contraction (Part of the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression). The Great Depression on contrast had 43 months of contraction.
What has happened will happen again, it's all just a cycle, and recover (then probably bubble again somehow, probably green products but who knows).
Voting has no effect when most incumbents are re-elected and the challengers are from the same pre-approved stock that made the mess. Unless real people who are not lawyers can get into the House and Senate nothing will change for the better.
Voting has no effect when most incumbents are re-elected and the challengers are from the same pre-approved stock that made the mess. Unless real people who are not lawyers can get into the House and Senate nothing will change for the better.
Nothing stops "real people" from running for office.
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