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Old 05-20-2010, 01:24 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,638,668 times
Reputation: 5180

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A few short months ago the media was telling us how we were in recovery and how much better everything was getting. The eternal optimists were having a field day pointing out how wrong the “Doomers” were, and talking about Dow 15,000, and recovering housing markets. How things have now changed. Today we are looking at a market down another 300 after a 500 point loss in a couple of weeks. Unemployment numbers are up, and leading indicators are down. North Korea has been identified as the ones responsible for the sinking of a South Korean military ship, and is threatening all out war if they are retaliated against by military actions or sanctions. Europe is in chaos as the world has given them a vote of no confidence for their bail out plans. The Euro is dropping like a rock, and the Greece is facing civil unrest. World wide people are turning against their own governments as leaders are either being thrown out in elections as here in the US or resigning in disgrace as in Brittan. The banking industry has increasing numbers of “problem” institutions and the number has now grown to 775. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are continuing to loose money in mass quantity, and are in need of billions more to throw down their ever growing rat hole. Foreclosures are at an all time high. Our Federal deficit is growing at such a rapid pace as to even put fear into the IMF and the FED. Years of rewarding morally wrong behavior is beginning to catch up with us and yet we continue to try to fix the problems with the same morally wrong solutions. More debt, more pork, more give a ways to the financially irresponsible. How long before we find ourselves in the same situation as Greece? If this is recovery I suppose I really do not understand the meaning of the word.
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Old 05-20-2010, 02:55 PM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
2,167 posts, read 2,610,330 times
Reputation: 4845
It was never there in the first place. You astutely and correctly noted that the whole thing was a crock of excrement to begin with. Since none of the underlying issues to correct it were really addressed in the first place, it was merely the "extend and pretend" game of treating the symptoms but not the disease. Cough syrup only goes so far when you have double pneumonia and are in dire need of antibiotics and bed rest: The DOW SHOULD have been allowed to collapse to around 4k. Goldman Sachs SHOULD have been pulverized and fractured into about a dozen pieces. GM SHOULD have been allowed to fade into history a-la TWA and Pan Am. Paulson, Bernanke, Blankfein, and Geithner should have been sent to prison. And so on and so forth.

That's basically what happened here. Indeed the Voice Of Authority (along with the CNBC cheerleaders) had merely hoped to create a sulf-fulfilling recovery by repeating ad nauseum ad infinitum that all was well. So go out and spend. You know....if you tell the same lie over and over enough times, some people will start to accept it as truth.

I am one of those who doesn't believe in the legitimacy of the markets (DOW, S+P, CPI, etc.) any more than I believe in the Easter Bunny or the Tooth Fairy.

Those numbers are so concocted, maniupulated, and misleading as to be laughingly worthless. For example, the CPI conveniently ignores rising fuel and energy prices yet puts them front and center when they are falling.

You can't have it both ways *and* expect to hold any kind of credibility.
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:27 PM
 
2,592 posts, read 4,867,359 times
Reputation: 1943
Quote:
Originally Posted by Des-Lab View Post
It was never there in the first place. You astutely and correctly noted that the whole thing was a crock of excrement to begin with. Since none of the underlying issues to correct it were really addressed in the first place, it was merely the "extend and pretend" game of treating the symptoms but not the disease. Cough syrup only goes so far when you have double pneumonia and are in dire need of antibiotics and bed rest: The DOW SHOULD have been allowed to collapse to around 4k. Goldman Sachs SHOULD have been pulverized and fractured into about a dozen pieces. GM SHOULD have been allowed to fade into history a-la TWA and Pan Am. Paulson, Bernanke, Blankfein, and Geithner should have been sent to prison. And so on and so forth.

That's basically what happened here. Indeed the Voice Of Authority (along with the CNBC cheerleaders) had merely hoped to create a sulf-fulfilling recovery by repeating ad nauseum ad infinitum that all was well. So go out and spend. You know....if you tell the same lie over and over enough times, some people will start to accept it as truth.

I am one of those who doesn't believe in the legitimacy of the markets (DOW, S+P, CPI, etc.) any more than I believe in the Easter Bunny or the Tooth Fairy.

Those numbers are so concocted, maniupulated, and misleading as to be laughingly worthless. For example, the CPI conveniently ignores rising fuel and energy prices yet puts them front and center when they are falling.

You can't have it both ways *and* expect to hold any kind of credibility.
Nice post. Yea, if you talk to american citizens you could see there wasn't any recovery. All they did was stick a band-aid on a compound fracture and then any good news was bragged as the beginning of a recovery. Any time home sales were up it appeared great even though they were compared to last year which was terrible and couldn't get much worse.

The fact is the economy is still shedding jobs, there is still an inventory of homes on the market, and the oveall debt is completely out of control, which is causing the next bubble...a credit bubble. I hate to be negative but I don't think we have seen the worst of it. Add in inflation which destorys wealth faster than anything, and you have a great recovery. The worst is the media basically claiming everything is all-and-good just because the stock market was doing fairly well.

So far we have had the tech bubble, housing bubble, soon to come credit bubble...all in about the last 15 years. Just goes to show you the government and Federal Reserve have no idea what they are doing.
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Old 05-20-2010, 03:58 PM
 
67 posts, read 254,081 times
Reputation: 39
Hello. I have a quick questions for the posters above and other "doomers". I don't mean to put a label on you or anything, but I have a quick question. Is your personal quality of life materially worst than it was two years ago? Does your pessimism stem from your own hardship or just from things you read about or see on the news?
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Old 05-20-2010, 04:05 PM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
2,167 posts, read 2,610,330 times
Reputation: 4845
Quote:
Originally Posted by islandFever View Post
Hello. I have a quick questions for the posters above and other "doomers". I don't mean to put a label on you or anything, but I have a quick question. Is your personal quality of life materially worst than it was two years ago? Does your pessimism stem from your own hardship or just from things you read about or see on the news?
Me personally? I am the same or better than I was even one year ago. In that time, my wife and I managed to purchase a brand spanking new home with a nice 30 year fixed interest rate. And fill it with plenty of nice amenities. We did that by spending the previous three by being basically shut ins and eating a lot of hamburger and pasta. And not buying those new cars.

But what does that have to do with what the OP has said? Just because we might be doing ok on a household level doesn't make us not capable of seeing some road flares ahead that could potentially have adverse effects?

Look. I'm sick of the whole "doomer" stereotypes. I understand human phsychology and get the whole Bulls=Party Goers and Bears=Party Pooper analogies. I think both are utter nonsense and often come down to a "what we WANT to believe" (along with the closely related 'us versus them' schisms) devoid of anything resembling logic or in consensus with the simple facts. Calling the truth for what it is (even if its bad) doesn't make one a "doomer" any more and not one bit less than calling good news for what it is doesn't make that person a Pollyanna.

The important think is spotting the difference. It can be a fine line sometimes. The truth hurts sometimes. When you see that jetliner crusing over your house and it's upside down with one wing spewing flames-I'm sorry. But even though it hasn't *technically* crashed, there is no amount of spin (no pun intended) you can put on it that says that the people onboard aren't in a world of trouble.

So give it a rest.
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Old 05-20-2010, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Castle Hills
1,133 posts, read 2,421,790 times
Reputation: 611
Quote:
Originally Posted by islandFever View Post
Hello. I have a quick questions for the posters above and other "doomers". I don't mean to put a label on you or anything, but I have a quick question. Is your personal quality of life materially worst than it was two years ago? Does your pessimism stem from your own hardship or just from things you read about or see on the news?
My life is now worse because of the continued deterioration of our country I see before my eyes every day and all of my friends and family who are out of work. It is certainly taking a toll. With that said, financially I'm fine because my wife and I have always been conservative with our money. People like you sit there and put your fingers in your ears and sing like nothing is wrong in our country, when the truth is **** is falling apart and a rapid pace.

Why don't you comment on Jim's post and point out where he is wrong? I happen to agree with everything he has said and would like to see the "Everything is fine" point of view.
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Old 05-20-2010, 05:35 PM
 
67 posts, read 254,081 times
Reputation: 39
Sorry. Didn't mean to offend anyone. I just wanted to understand where you all are coming from. -Like are your views based on personal experiences or the media?

As has been mentioned, numbers lie- and markets lie. Take for example unemployment. These numbers may seem high, but how many of these people are actually "employable"? A quick look at any typical American town yields a large number- and growing number- of sex offenders. How about ex-convicts? What about people whom are otherwise hardworking but just recently came to this country legally, but don't have a good command of reading and writing (english), yet? Wouldn't you agree that these people skew our unemployment numbers?

Also (now understand that I'm not being judgemental, but am just making a point) what about the growing number of people who have tatoos head to toe and nose rings these days? Look, if I ran a pediatric clinic or a pediatric dentist office and had an opening for a front desk clerk, none of these people would get the job. I would have to leave the position open and keep looking. So, do you see how these umemployment claims can be skewed?

I'll try to address some of the other concerns mention- like the recovery and the market- at a later time. For now, I think it is compelling to know that your personal situations are not a reflection of your respective outlook.
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Old 05-20-2010, 06:01 PM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
2,167 posts, read 2,610,330 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by islandFever View Post
Sorry. Didn't mean to offend anyone. I just wanted to understand where you all are coming from.....I'll try to address some of the other concerns mention- like the recovery and the market- at a later time.
No why don't you share them now. Surely you must have some thoughts and views on the subject or else you wouldn't have done the drive-by post that you did. You've been called. Now back it up lest you get branded a troll.


Quote:
Originally Posted by islandFever View Post
As has been mentioned, numbers lie- and markets lie. Take for example unemployment. These numbers may seem high, but how many of these people are actually "employable"?
Probably more than you give them credit for provided they are given a chance to be employed in the first place. Kind of hard when what's left of the economy centers on burgers, lattés, and open heart surgery.

Quote:
Originally Posted by islandFever View Post
A quick look at any typical American town yields a large number- and growing number- of sex offenders. How about ex-convicts? What about people whom are otherwise hardworking but just recently came to this country legally, but don't have a good command of reading and writing (english), yet? Wouldn't you agree that these people skew our unemployment numbers?
A subject for another discussion, but I opine that the "sex offenders" thing is getting a little too carried away and out of control, just like so many other laws that started out with good intentions but got hijacked and taken off the deep end. Ergo why should a guy who happened to get ticketed while taking a leak out back where he thought no one was looking be placed in the same league as the dude that molested an entire seventh grade? The current sex offenders system does just that. How about lifting a few of those bureaucratic barriers and look at each case on an individual level based on severity or lack thereof?

Same thing with ex convicts. I think a person that's paid their debts deserves a second chance. Once you fall into penal system, it becomes a vicious cycle that's all but impossible to break out of. Surely some sort of compromise can be made to ensure that 1) those who did wrong get full punishment and 2) those who have served their pennance get a second last chance at redemption and rejoining honest society?

Quote:
Originally Posted by islandFever View Post
Also (now understand that I'm not being judgemental, but am just making a point) what about the growing number of people who have tatoos head to toe and nose rings these days? Look, if I ran a pediatric clinic or a pediatric dentist office and had an opening for a front desk clerk, none of these people would get the job. I would have to leave the position open and keep looking. So, do you see how these umemployment claims can be skewed?
Very superficial. Look. I'm not crazy about the whole tattooes...excuse me..."body art" and piercings thing either (I have none of either which probably makes me more of an expressive original than all of these 'freedom of expression, I'm unique' folks getting them, but that's beside the point), but the fact is. A substantial percentage of todays 35 and under crowd (if not greater than 50%) have some level of both. So what? They are the ones that have to live with it the rest of their lives even though they probably got them based on a one-day impulse. If that's what you are basing your criteria on, a time's going to come when you won't be able to hire ANYONE based on that. Why not worry about what really counts-such as whether or not they show up on time and/or have the knowledge to do the job-or at the very least-an open attitude to learn it? There's plenty of room for discretion. I can certainly understand not hiring someone who is excessively "tatted" and "pierced" to run the front desk of a doctors office. But so what if the chicker (or dude) has a nose ring or some skin ink in the form of barbed wire around their arm or a butterfly on their shoulder. Aren't there bigger things to worry about?
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Old 05-20-2010, 06:37 PM
 
5,656 posts, read 17,968,845 times
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My opinion: It is all about jobs, everything could have been avoided if the people who are in Washington made real good jobs in real industry a top priority. Not b.s. services jobs like the previous 20 years of presidents told us were so great.

But they didn't. They kowtowed to special interest and lobbies. So here we are. It may not be too late if they can get out of the way of small business and innovation.
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Old 05-20-2010, 07:36 PM
 
10,494 posts, read 24,434,709 times
Reputation: 6697
I sincerely encourage everyone to watch this mini movie as it will explain everything. It came out last week so it is current. We are doomed.


YouTube - Meltup
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