Mexico collapse unlikely: Experts say (Austin, El Paso: crime, credit, utilities)

[usmc el paso]

It seems that the prediction of the collapse of the Mexican state were a little premature. When I first heard the predictions of the Mexican Government collapsing due to the civil war among drug cartels I just shooked my head and laughed. The Mexican democracy and it's institutions are much stronger than people give it credit for.

Mexico collapse unlikely: Experts say government stable despite mounting border violence - El Paso Times

[luplor]

MC, I am sure you have been overseas and you know there are a lot of countries that function very well in what we would consider chaos. Works for them, ok with me. The nacro insurgency can survive so long as the people allow it when they had enough, THEY will put a stop to it, not some wild idea like invading them or some local trekkie on council screaming for drugs being legalized. Strange he wasnt concerned until 2008.

[usmc el paso]

Originally Posted by luplor

MC, I am sure you have been overseas and you know there are a lot of countries that function very well in what we would consider chaos. Works for them, ok with me. The nacro insurgency can survive so long as the people allow it when they had enough, THEY will put a stop to it, not some wild idea like invading them or some local trekkie on council screaming for durgs being legalized. Strange he wasnt concerned until 2008.

I agree with you completely and you are right that there are areas in Mexico where this narco culture is actually celebrated. Let me reiterate, some areas of Mexico like the Culiacan, Sinaloa area is heavily infested by this culture.

[Old Gringo]

I think the situation in Mexico is precarious. The narco gangs apparently have many government agencies, including some law enforcement and military, bought and paid for. Corruption is so deeply ingrained there that I honestly wonder if the Mexican federal government will be able to get the upper hand. They certainly haven't so far.

[malamute]

Originally Posted by Old Gringo

I think the situation in Mexico is precarious. The narco gangs apparently have many government agencies, including some law enforcement and military, bought and paid for. Corruption is so deeply ingrained there that I honestly wonder if the Mexican federal government will be able to get the upper hand. They certainly haven't so far.

It's precarious -- for some. The criminal cartels actually provide a kind of law and order -- harsh as it may seem. Once one gains full control over it's region, the killings will slow down. People from those regions will abide by the cartel's rules, they'll play the game or they would have to leave.

I think it's Mexico's centralized form of government that makes it difficult to control the more distant regions. What is bad for Ciudad Juarez is that it's population has exploded with people from other regions who are having a difficult time adapting, and the stable people who worked, paid taxes, built the infrastructure, provided jobs are packing up and heading out.

[kidicarus89]

Originally Posted by luplor

some local trekkie on council screaming for drugs being legalized. Strange he wasnt concerned until 2008.

Are you referring to Beto 'Rourke's resolution?

[luplor]

Yes, I was referring to him, I already posted my thoughts, on other threads and websites, about the issue, so I would want to reHASH that discussion. No offense meant.

[cpelp]

"But, in a letter to the El Paso Times, Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico's ambassador to the United States in Washington, denies his country is on the verge of collapse."

Well that's shocking... why would he say otherwise.

"If one considers the criteria that could lead to a 'sudden collapse' -- loss of territorial control, inability to provide public services, re fugees and internally displaced people, criminalization of the state, sharp economic decline and incapacity to interact as a full member of the international community -- it is obvious that Mexico simply does not fit the pattern."

loss of territorial control depends on the cartels. you could argue that mexico isn't really in control of some small parts of the country already. There were 2 towns on the border here that had no police a week or two ago thanks to everyone being killed or quitting. Think mexico was in control of those 2 towns?

example, people don't use the mail service because it doesn't work. You have one provider for most all utilities. numerous other issues, although there is (at some level) water, sewage removal, and electricity.

If the massive influx of illegals (and legals) into the US doesn't count as refugees I don't what will. I really don't think they're leaving because Mexico is just so great. Also keep in mind that with the violence, anyone with the money and ability to do so has already left Mexico and is on the US side. Talk to an El Paso realtor if you don't think so. Even people in the interior want to move but can't yet. My wife's parents started the visa papers ($350 per person to start, 10 year process) because if the violence in their town (Casas Grandes) doesn't subside, they'll go to the US to get away from it.

Internally displaced people can easily mean having to move from Queretaro to Juarez to find a maquila job. It can also mean people going back to hometowns and away from the border cities (which I'm seeing where I work) to get away from the worst of the violence.

criminalization of the state... if you have any real experience with mexico, no comment is needed. Otherwise keep on living in lala land.

Sharp economic decline... how about adios tourism. how about the peso going from 10:$1 to 14:$1. 40% increase for anyone living or shopping in the US and getting paid in pesos. How about the main center of jobs in mexico, the maquila industry. some maquilas here in juarez i know are already talking about moving out of jaurez or the border comepletely if the violence doesn't stop. i assume enough stories of what's been happening here in the maquilas and to americans working here have been in the EP times that you at least have a clue how things are. What will happen if the maquilas pull out? even if a portion of them leave it would be devastating for juarez. there are tons of things that could follow, all negative, but for right now it's just a possibility, albeit a real one.

Mexico is acting in the international community to the extent that it ever has, which is to say minimally. They're trying to control the drug flow some, and are giving lip-serviceto talk about stopping illegal immigration. tell me how else mexico has interacted in the world community.

"There are things in Mexico that are very negative, but others that are very positive, too. For example, it is managing its economy very well, it has stabilized the price of oil, and it's a real functioning democracy."

some things to think about...the democracy was one party for a looong time. not very democratic for one party to have all the power. but that's changed a little, ok. However, the politicians are as bought as the police and the army. is it a "functioning" democracy if you can pick which already boguht guy to put into office? yes. Is it really what you think about when you talk democracy? absolutely not.

"They are in complete control of the streets and get very little resistance from those they extort. It's every citizen for himself if they are confronted by the drug lords," Morales said. "If the drug dealers need to kill someone, they take them outside Acuña so they don't (attract) the attention of Mexican federal officers or the military. The drug dealers are suspected of killing an Acuña city councilman in 2007 who lived on the U.S. side of the border."

this is how it is in jaurez, and from what i'm told casas grandes, laredo, tj, and most likely the rest of juarez. tell me how a perfectly functioning, working, democratic government can exist when people live in conditions like this.

Karen Hooper, Latin American analyst for STRATFOR, a global intelligence service in Austin, said unless Mexico experiences a catastrophic event, such as the assassination of the president or a destabilizing terrorist attack, "it is unlikely for the government to collapse or for the U.S. military to play an active role in Mexico beyond one of cooperation, such as through the Merida Initiative."

totally agree. but how long is it until something like that happens. someone killing the president sounds as unlikely as two towns having no police whatsoever...

"Yes, the violence has increased, but so far, it's been mostly cartel-on-cartel violence. The cartels have no interest in doing something that could lead to a U.S. military (response). If everything stays the same, the most that can happen is for the status quo to remain."

Also agree. but everything hasn't stayed the same. It's gotten worse and worse. it's beyond just drug dealers killing drug dealers. it's criminals knowing they can do what they want. pretty much lawlessness. the precedent of it NOT staying the same has been set over the last year and a half. why would you think it would suddenly stop and stagnate now?

Lastly, who are these experts? The Mexican ambassador (biased) and a UTEP prof which could introduce other issues to talk about but let's assume he's honest and such. he's right, it hasn't reached the critical stage for mexico yet (but with only a little imagination you can see how it can get there). But the government report didn't say mexico was going to fall tomorrow. it said it was unlikely to happen anywhere in the next 3-5 years, but if it did happen anywhere, it would most likely be pakistan or mexico. the fact that people have to go find counter experts to rebuke a point that wasn't actually made (the report itself said it was unlikely) just reinforced that it is a possibility, even if it's remote.



Before you think everything is contained, and everyone is relatively ok with things as it is, and everyone is really getting serviced more or less how they should, you really should come here on a regular basis. You should drive around the city, maybe even at night, on side streets. You should try to live and pay bills and have to go get groceries and have some sort of social life. Or at least, you should know a lot of people and talk to a lot of people and be close to a lot of people that do. Then you can see how it really is. It's easy to gloss it over when you're on the outside looking in, but it is NOT pretty or ok in juarez or mexico. the fact that you can even say "if this" and "if that" and easily connect a few dots to get to the point where mexico is really not a functioning country is SCARY. even though it's unlikely, any thought along those lines, you would think, would be so absurd you'd laugh it off. People over here now say "ya, i can see that" and "ya, that may happen". And they're living in it everyday.

before you think it's ok, or good enough, i really urge you to come get your hands dirty living and/or working in jaurez. you may have a different opinion once you garner more first-hand knowledge.

/rant off :P

[luplor]

Very interesting posting and very informative. Narco terroirsm can only exist if the people allow it. Terrorism or for that matter gang crime requires the people to get involved, yes even at the risk of losing your life. Terrorists "terrorize the people to control them and/or convince the people, they are better off with them than with the government. The government clamps down to bring stability and regain control and this causes the people to turn against the government. So in the end it is up to the PEOPLE when they have had enough.

Intervention by the US military will revive peoples' memories of the past US-Mexico war and create an insurgency against the US and even more problems.

[Caltep]

Not advocating for anything here, but rememeber when the US took an isolationist stance in pre-WW2 and got dragged in anyway? And not really isolationist-sending war material to Russia and England. Similar but different here. We are not direclty involved militarily but we provide money and intelligence. And when, as in Viet Nam, will US military "Advisors" start going over?