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Old 10-28-2010, 04:07 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,961,908 times
Reputation: 7118

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Could the "wave" catch Barney? Can we get to "toss-up" by Monday?

The Cook Political Report - Charts - 2010 House Competitive Races (http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive.php - broken link)

Look at those 49-0 Dem Toss Ups.
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Old 10-28-2010, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
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Rush did a piece on the 4th in NC, my district. Basically, it allowed BJ Lawson's contributions to skyrocket. I was in the Cary campaign office today and the phones were off the hook.

went from safe to likely just like Barney's district.
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Old 10-28-2010, 08:06 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,193 posts, read 19,473,387 times
Reputation: 5305
Quote:
Originally Posted by summers73 View Post
Rush did a piece on the 4th in NC, my district. Basically, it allowed BJ Lawson's contributions to skyrocket. I was in the Cary campaign office today and the phones were off the hook.

went from safe to likely just like Barney's district.
note...

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
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Old 10-28-2010, 09:12 PM
 
3,204 posts, read 2,869,339 times
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LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This would Make My Day!!!!!!!!

Even if he doesn't lose it's gonna make him realize people ain't happy. And he's replacable.
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Old 10-28-2010, 09:40 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
Reputation: 3826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
note...

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Anything not safe is considered in play.

Remember Scott Brown?
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Old 10-28-2010, 09:42 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,193 posts, read 19,473,387 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by summers73 View Post
Anything not safe is considered in play.

Remember Scott Brown?
Cook's definition differs, says it has the potential to be competitive, but currently is not.

A few days out Scott Brown was considered the favorite, it was also a special election with far lower turnout.
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Old 10-28-2010, 09:47 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Cook's definition differs, says it has the potential to be competitive, but currently is not.

A few days out Scott Brown was considered the favorite, it was also a special election with far lower turnout.
Since polling information is sporadic, cook's definition means nothing. The election is completely in play.
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Old 10-28-2010, 09:52 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,193 posts, read 19,473,387 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by summers73 View Post
Since polling information is sporadic, cook's definition means nothing. The election is completely in play.
So you make mention of the fact Cook changed it to likely, and then when given Cook's mention of what likely is you suddenly decide it means nothing. Interesting...

Not to mention the majority of the others have it listed as safe. Does Price win by his 26 point margin from 08? No, it will be closer, but he will win by double digits.
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Old 10-28-2010, 09:55 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,961,908 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
note...

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Note; You're in the wrong column. Bwaney is now a "lean".

Quote:
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.
In a D+14 district, in MASS.

He's still leading, but it's closer than it should be.
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Old 10-28-2010, 09:55 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
Reputation: 3826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
So you make mention of the fact Cook changed it to likely, and then when given Cook's mention of what likely is you suddenly decide it means nothing. Interesting...

Not to mention the majority of the others have it listed as safe. Does Price win by his 26 point margin from 08? No, it will be closer, but he will win by double digits.
How do you know he'll win by double digits? Even Obama 2008 voters and Dems are volunteers stumping for Lawson. Price didn't win by much in 2008 considering it was an Obama year and anyone with an R was branded an enemy. Dems vote Lawson, but I have yet to meet a Rep who votes Price. Associating Price with Pelosi was a brilliant move since NC-4, even with the pseudo-intellectual coffeeshop trolls lurking CH and Carrboro, is no San Fransisco.

I just think it's cute that you judge a district you don't live anywhere near.
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