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This is a relief to me, because I was getting concerned that the GOP would try to force Romney to put Santorum on the ticket. That would be a disaster IMO.
I'm relieved too. I know Santorum has strong appeal to some in the GOP, but IMO he'll do nothing to attract independents, and I get the feeling the two men don't much care for each other. I can't imagine Romney or his aides trusting Santorum.
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Originally Posted by WestCobb
Romney should go with someone from the South or West. I'm glad he's not looking at Santorum. It's a bad fit.
Agreed
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Originally Posted by Green Onions
More likely, we'll see a very serious pick. It will probably be viewed as boring, but it will really be the sort of pick one expects a potential President to pick. Not a Palin, not a Quayle, not some exciting identity-politics pick.
Prediction -- Romney will not pick a Governor unless it is a Governor who has recently had extensive experience in Congress and/or the Executive Branch.
Romney doesn't need someone with executive experience, but I agree someone with DC experience would be invaluable. Like a Cheney without the baggage - if there is such a person. Failing that, what about Bobby Jindal?
Romney should go with someone from the South or West. I'm glad he's not looking at Santorum. It's a bad fit.
I agree. I tend to think he needs a protestant southerner, without that I think it will be come much more difficult in the critical South Atlantic states. Lindsay Graham is a possibility.
Romney doesn't need someone with executive experience, but I agree someone with DC experience would be invaluable. Like a Cheney without the baggage - if there is such a person. Failing that, what about Bobby Jindal?
Jindal seems like a reach to me. And I really don't think Romney needs such youth on the ticket. As I've noted elsewhere, Mitt Romney carries his age very well. If elected, he would be the fourth-oldest President ever (and only one day younger than the third-oldest). But who would guess that?
I think two very strong possibilities are Jim Demint and Rob Portman. Not rock stars, but they would lend a lot of gravitas to the ticket. Demint would give Tea Party credibility (minus the Christine O'Donnell-type Tea Party lunacy) and be conservative beyond doubt -- something Romney really needs, given his past positions. Portman would augment Romney's business/financial campaign strategy, and he's from a critical swing state.
I know Rubio is the fasionable pick many are assuming will happen. But I don't think he'll be on the ticket.
Susana Martinez is growing on me, I've been looking into her more. But as Nita says, she is really pretty inexperienced and could easily be portrayed in the media as another Palin. Next to her, I think Rubio is the best choice. Portman isn't exciting, DeMint might be too conservative. Rubio excites the tea party and the estabshment. McDonnell wouldn't complement the ticket enough, but I really like him. Is anyone considering Christie? I don't see him as a VP. I know he said flat out he wouldn't do it, but so did half the other people being considered for VP.
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Originally Posted by Randomstudent
I agree. I tend to think he needs a protestant southerner, without that I think it will be come much more difficult in the critical South Atlantic states. Lindsay Graham is a possibility.
No! Tea party conservatives would hate that. Plus, South Carolina is in the bag. he could probably do better by finding someone from NC (Richard Burr, I guess), Florida (Rubio), or Virginia (McDonnell) if he wants to target southern Atlantic states.
As for Protestantism, I think Santorum marks the end of Evangelical opposition to Catholic candidates. Because they love him, and they did even when Rick Perry was still in the race.
No! Tea party conservatives would hate that. Plus, South Carolina is in the bag. he could probably do better by finding someone from NC (Richard Burr, I guess), Florida (Rubio), or Virginia (McDonnell) if he wants to target southern Atlantic states.
As for Protestantism, I think Santorum marks the end of Evangelical opposition to Catholic candidates. Because they love him, and they did even when Rick Perry was still in the race.
Maybe Burr, but both Rubio and McDonnell have way too much baggage. As to evangelical opposition to Catholic candidates Perry started going loopy and when the competition is a Mormon, well, that ain't much choice.
If part of Romney's strategy in picking a running mate is regional, it should be based on the Midwest, not the South or West.
Here's why:
Romney can't worry too much about the South -- it is the Republican stronghold. If he has to divert resources there, he can't win. He has to rely on holding there and competing where the bulk of the big swing states are located. Besides, the two biggest swing-state prizes there are more southern than Southern (Florida, particularly the peninsula, where most of the people live, is more a land of transplants and Cuban Hispanics, as opposed to cultural Southerners -- and Virginia, where the population is increasingly centered on blue-ish NoVa in and around Arlington).
And the West is a place where Romney performs reasonably well already. But most Western states aren't swing states. Sure, there's Colorado and New Mexico and Nevada, but they don't amount to much electorally.
But, the Midwest? Ohio. That alone is perhaps the ultimate swing-state prize. And it borders Michigan and Pennsylvania, two other potential swing states that are of similar character -- Rust Belt states -- one of which Romney will probably need as part of a winning coalition. And, conceivably, Wisconsin would be part of this strategy.
I'm not saying there aren't good running mates in the South and the West. There are. And Romney might pick one as part of a strategy that is not based on shoring up regional support. But if he's going, at least in part, on a regional strategy is picking a running mate, he should look to the Midwest.
If part of Romney's strategy in picking a running mate is regional, it should be based on the Midwest, not the South or West.
Here's why:
Romney can't worry too much about the South -- it is the Republican stronghold. If he has to divert resources there, he can't win. He has to rely on holding there and competing where the bulk of the big swing states are located. Besides, the two biggest swing-state prizes there are more southern than Southern (Florida, particularly the peninsula, where most of the people live, is more a land of transplants and Cuban Hispanics, as opposed to cultural Southerners -- and Virginia, where the population is increasingly centered on blue-ish NoVa in and around Arlington).
And the West is a place where Romney performs reasonably well already. But most Western states aren't swing states. Sure, there's Colorado and New Mexico and Nevada, but they don't amount to much electorally.
But, the Midwest? Ohio. That alone is perhaps the ultimate swing-state prize. And it borders Michigan and Pennsylvania, two other potential swing states that are of similar character -- Rust Belt states -- one of which Romney will probably need as part of a winning coalition. And, conceivably, Wisconsin would be part of this strategy.
I'm not saying there aren't good running mates in the South and the West. There are. And Romney might pick one as part of a strategy that is not based on shoring up regional support. But if he's going, at least in part, on a regional strategy is picking a running mate, he should look to the Midwest.
Therein lies the problem. He is having trouble in VA and NC (also in Florida, but that isn't particularly southern). He needs to do something to shore that up.
Therein lies the problem. He is having trouble in VA and NC (also in Florida, but that isn't particularly southern). He needs to do something to shore that up.
I think Romney has a path to 270 without Virgina. Without North Carolina, no, but if he has to pick a running mate just to hold North Carolina, he's lost already, so there's no point in doing that. He needs some sort of bridge to blue-collar Midwesterners, enough to help in Ohio and nearby states with similar demographics.
McDonnell once looked like a nice pick in Virginia, but a month of supporting medically unnecessary transvaginal probes has put a serious dent in his Veepstakes ticket.
I think Romney has a path to 270 without Virgina. Without North Carolina, no, but if he has to pick a running mate just to hold North Carolina, he's lost already, so there's no point in doing that. He needs some sort of bridge to blue-collar Midwesterners, enough to help in Ohio and nearby states with similar demographics.
I agree. I would say that what you said about North Carolina also applies to Florida.
I think Portman is the best choice, assuming he can help in Ohio.
I think Virginia (which Obama won by a larger margin than he won Ohio by in 2008) could be a big problem for Romney because he is proposing cuts in federal worker pay and benefits and reducing the federal workforce.
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Originally Posted by Green Onions
McDonnell once looked like a nice pick in Virginia, but a month of supporting medically unnecessary transvaginal probes has put a serious dent in his Veepstakes ticket.
In addition, McDonnell's master's thesis was very controversial and the Democrats would be certain to use it in the campaign. Because of the thesis, choosing McDonnell would play right into the narrative by the Democrats that the GOP is conducting a "war on women."
Romney needs a Westerner to balance his Eastern roots, a woman to counteract his gender gap and a Latino to shore up his weak Hispanic support. All signs point to Susanna Martinez.
I think she could be a good choice, but I agree with nmnita and tmsterp that she could end up being another Palin. I don't think she's even remotely like Palin, but I do question whether she would be ready for national politics and how moderate swing voters would perceive her.
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