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Old 04-24-2012, 09:28 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,186 posts, read 51,559,058 times
Reputation: 28467

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Polls will show this, others will show that. It is going to be close in the vote count, but Obama has a strong advantage in electoral votes. He will be re-elected with relative ease. Accept it and begin plans for 2016.
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Old 04-24-2012, 09:29 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,770 posts, read 105,273,772 times
Reputation: 49251
Quote:
Originally Posted by stillkit View Post
Has Rasmussen EVER shown a Republican being beat?
oh for heavens sake, of course he has...You don't like to even thing about Obama being in trouble, well you might want to get used to it. As I mentioned yesterday, even Eleanor Clift admits he could be in trouble. Of course the poll is within the margin of error and of course Rasmussen polls lean right, but to say none have ever shown a Republican behind is rediculous.

nita
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:48 AM
 
Location: NC
1,672 posts, read 1,778,801 times
Reputation: 524
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale View Post
Lol at the level of difference. If I was a statistician working for them and saw that, I would immediately have to check for flaws in my polling sample. That is well beyond margin of error.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:53 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 1,093,024 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Polls will show this, others will show that. It is going to be close in the vote count, but Obama has a strong advantage in electoral votes. He will be re-elected with relative ease. Accept it and begin plans for 2016.
The electoral follows the popular vote. Even when they produce different outcomes, they are still very close. not as many polls have been taken in individual states following Romney's recent rise, but expect his numbers to improve in key swing states in a manner correlated with his overall popular vote rise.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:19 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,160 posts, read 1,964,787 times
Reputation: 1297
Rasmussen was demonstrably the worst pollster in 2010 with an enormous Republican bias. The had an error rate of 5.8 (by far the worst of all the major pollsters) and a Republican bias of +3.9. Amazingly, the polled far more than anyone else. If Rasmussen was just experiencing inordinate statistical drift, their sheer bulk of polling wouldn't corrected that. It didn't. Because they have a massive house bias.

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

This is not opinion, but merely a look at how Rasmussen's predictions compared to what happened (rather poorly).
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:25 PM
 
566 posts, read 961,579 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stillkit View Post
Has Rasmussen EVER shown a Republican being beat?
lol good observation.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:34 PM
 
Location: Fort Worth Texas
12,481 posts, read 10,256,189 times
Reputation: 2536
Rasmussen does likely voters rather then registered voters
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:48 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,210,358 times
Reputation: 1434
Quote:
Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post
Their final 2008 poll had Obama by 6. Their house tilt in 2010 over about 100 polls was ~ +4R. I think their internal methodology changed or something because they used to be one of the least error-prone major firms until a couple years ago.


Why because it doesn't say what you want it to...lol?
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Old 04-24-2012, 02:11 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, MD
3,236 posts, read 3,955,925 times
Reputation: 3010
Oh my, if Rasmussen says so I should just throw in the towel! I wonder when they will finally come clean and put "For Novelty Purposes Only" after their ridiculously biased inaccurate push polls lol
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Old 04-24-2012, 02:29 PM
 
3,265 posts, read 3,209,373 times
Reputation: 1440
Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Why because it doesn't say what you want it to...lol?
No. Seriously, what's your problem? Do you have a pathological compulsion to attack anyone who holds a different opinion or viewpoint? Do you get pleasure from acting like a child on the internet? Are you in fact a child? For a supposed real estate agent you sure do seem to spend an inordinate amount of time posting on a message board.

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com
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