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There are 301 caucus/ convention delegates, even if Paul takes most of them Romney will get some.
There are approx 350 or so bound to Santorum and Newt that wil eventually get released. Again even if you assume most go to Paul, Romney will get some.
There are 114 RNC delegates. Considering these are the establishment, I think we can both agree Romney gets the bulk.
You have 725 delegates that are currently bound to Romney on the first round. They could be delegates that personally support Paul, but they are tied to Romney on the first round.
Now that doesn't put Romney quite at the 1144 yet, but it puts him fairly close. Almost everything remaining are from bound delegates on the 1st rund. So even if the delegates are actually Paul supporters they are going to be bound to the Primary results on the 1st round of voting. This basically means Paul needs to take the vast majority of the bound delegates from here on out. He needs to win big in Texas, he needs to win cali and take almost al the districts, and by winning I don't mean electing delegates that support him. They are bound, so he needs to win the popular vote outright and win it big.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark Park
According to the New York Times, the GOP delegate count is:
Romney - 847
Santorum - 259
Gingrich - 137
Paul - 80
Those are fake mainstream media estimates. The delegates haven't been counted yet.
Those are fake mainstream media estimates. The delegates haven't been counted yet.
You keep saying fake, they aren't fake. Now a portion of the NY Times numbers were estimates based off caucus results and the RNC establishment delegates. However, the vawst majority (725) are bound delegates that are automatically counted for Romney unles he drops out and releases his delgates. Those are facts period.
"""The Ron Paul “delegate strategy” seems to be working. And he could very well be nominated at the Republican National Convention in Tampa in late summer and the Paul ground game is starting to work, but with some institutional backlash."""
i don't actually see that happening. it is a long shot that he will get there anyway, and even if he did, the GOP would find a reason not to nominate him. they would rearrange the rules to go with romney.
a few years ago i wouldn't have thought that they would pull such a ridiculous, desperate, blatantly obvious ploy, but they have already been doing stuff like this on local scales, so now i am pretty sure of it at a national level: if paul miraculously gets to the point where he should by all rights be the republican nominee, they will take it from him on some made-up technicality, or maybe even just deciding all of a sudden to go with the popular vote or something.
You keep saying fake, they aren't fake. Now a portion of the NY Times numbers were estimates based off caucus results and the RNC establishment delegates. However, the vawst majority (725) are bound delegates that are automatically counted for Romney unles he drops out and releases his delgates. Those are facts period.
maybe he will explain what he means by fake and not counted. Could he be thinking about some of the caucus delegates and have them confused with the actually committed ones?
What is the argument about. If Romney get the 1144 with the establishment help, then he would have gotten it already, but it is not the case. He still DOES NOT has the 1144 majority to secure the nominee.
Yes, he has the most delegates NOW, but there are still a few big states, such as Cali and TX. Cali and TX combined are over 300 delegates. If Romney takes both, then he is close, but when if he only win 1 or lost both?
What is the argument about. If Romney get the 1144 with the establishment help, then he would have gotten it already, but it is not the case. He still DOES NOT has the 1144 majority to secure the nominee.
Yes, he has the most delegates NOW, but there are still a few big states, such as Cali and TX. Cali and TX combined are over 300 delegates. If Romney takes both, then he is close, but when if he only win 1 or lost both?
Until that happen, the convention will be on.
California is winner take all. Texas is proportional. So Romney won't clinch it.
California is winner take all. Texas is proportional. So Romney won't clinch it.
Ok, first of all, there are other states to consider in the next 4 weeks, not just Ca and Texas. Romney is pretty much a shoe in for Texas and he will get the majority of the delegates. You know Romney is going to carry Ca, it has a very high % of Mormons and they are almost 100% backing him. Before these 2 we have several smaller states. The more states Romney carries the more people in the remaining states are going to vote for him. Whether we like it or not, people like to vote for winners, so those on the fence will swing to the most popular candidate.
Ok, first of all, there are other states to consider in the next 4 weeks, not just Ca and Texas. Romney is pretty much a shoe in for Texas and he will get the majority of the delegates. You know Romney is going to carry Ca, it has a very high % of Mormons and they are almost 100% backing him. Before these 2 we have several smaller states. The more states Romney carries the more people in the remaining states are going to vote for him. Whether we like it or not, people like to vote for winners, so those on the fence will swing to the most popular candidate.
You know Romney is going to carry Ca, it has a very high % of Mormons and they are almost 100% backing him.
Actually, California is only about 2.1% Mormon. That's really not enough to make a difference for Romney -- even if they all were to vote for him.
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