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So being up by 2 means romney will win but Obama being up by 4,6,8 means that state is in play? Do you romney bots even listen to yourselfs
Ummm...an incumbent's performance in polls is more predictive than a challenger's performance - especially 5 months before an election.
Also, an incumbent has a ceiling of around his/her approval rating in so far as the percentage of the vote he/she can expect to receive. Nationally, no presidential candidate has overperformed his approval rating since Carter in 1980 (and Carter still lost in a landslide). Obama's approval is at least a few points below 50% in most of the polls in most states where it's asked where less than 50% of the respondents are saying they'll vote for him. In the vast majority of polls in FL, NC, OH, VA, CO, IA, NV, and even PA and in many of the polls in MI/WI, his approval is below 50%.
So being up by 2 means romney will win but Obama being up by 4,6,8 means that state is in play? Do you romney bots even listen to yourselfs
The trend is toward Romney.
Do you honestly believe obama can duplicate what it took in North Carolina to get out every left/dem vote from under every rock in this upcoming election? You must not have noticed how much of his "base" has soured on him. Women, blacks, youth, men, hispanics, rich, poor, middle income.....all his 2008 numbers are way, way down.
But surely you remember that the Left said obama would be trouncing Romney at this point in time, right after that "damaging" primary (that only seems to have made Mitt stronger)...remember? You guys said it would take some doing to rehabilitate Romney...and yet, the REALITY is he comes out of the primary neck and neck with obama.
Do you honestly believe obama can duplicate what it took in North Carolina to get out every left/dem vote from under every rock in this upcoming election? You must not have noticed how much of his "base" has soured on him. Women, blacks, youth, men, hispanics, rich, poor, middle income.....all his 2008 numbers are way, way down.
And Romney does not need to win PA....Obama absolutely does. If Obama is consistently polling below 50% there, and his approval rating is below 50% there, that's a bad sign for him, even if he is ahead in the polls.
BTW - sanrene didn't mention a thing about PA (or OH) in her post.
As far as Ohio, that poll is old...and it's from PPP which has consistently been strongly biased towards Democrats this election cycle (and, IIRC, it's very clear they oversampled Democrats in that poll when you look at the internals).
Romney has led in the two most recent OH polls that I'm aware of:
I don't disagree about the transplants and their effect, however, until 2008 North Carolina had not gone blue since 1976. The black vote definitely had a lot to do with that.
The state has been moving in that direction for several Presidential cycles The other state Obama won narrowly was Indiana, and I fully expect Indiana to go back to a GOP leaning state. I don't think it might go back to be as solid as it was, due to some changes in and around Indianapolis, however its really not a swing state.
North Carolina on the other hand, really is a true swing state now. Romney, certainly can win it, and he likely is up albeit narrowly there now. However the days of North Carolina being a true GOP state, that ship has sailed. Its a true swing state at this point
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