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And they oversampled self-identified Democrats and women (women lean democrat more than republican). Perhaps this poll shows Romney is actually ahead?
Party ID was the only thing that seems close, it was pretty much in between the 2008 and 2010 party ID gaps.
They did oversample women, but the poll over sample women by about 5-6%, the poll oversampled voters 51 and over by over 40%. The whole poll is a disaster.
Party ID was the only thing that seems close, it was pretty much in between the 2008 and 2010 party ID gaps.
They did oversample women, but the poll over sample women by about 5-6%, the poll oversampled voters 51 and over by over 40%. The whole poll is a disaster.
They did over sample Democrats and under sample Republicans by a little for each one, and ABC says Conservative ID is growing in Michigan, so perhaps it is even more skewed.
Why Obama is really worried, is that he won Michigan by 16%, now he is essentially tied in the state. No wonder he has made 11 campaign style stops here, has our Senators making robo calls on his behalf and hosting events for him, Obama 2012 pouring money into the state. Michigan has not liked him to swing from Obama +16 to even since 2008.
They did over sample Democrats and under sample Republicans by a little for each one, and ABC says Conservative ID is growing in Michigan, so perhaps it is even more skewed.
Why Obama is really worried, is that he won Michigan by 16%, now he is essentially tied in the state. No wonder he has made 11 campaign style stops here, has our Senators making robo calls on his behalf and hosting events for him, Obama 2012 pouring money into the state. Michigan has not liked him to swing from Obama +16 to even since 2008.
It was Dems + 12 in 08, in this poll its Dems + 10. That is probably where the ID should be, give or take a point or two.
However, that isn't the issue, the poll also under sampled blacks and over sampled whites by a few points, but that isn't the issue either.
No poll is going to have a perfect sample, if the sample is off by a couple of points or so it really won't mean much in the end. However, when its off by FOURTY POINTS yes 40, its complete junk.
It was Dems + 12 in 08, in this poll its Dems + 10. That is probably where the ID should be, give or take a point or two.
However, that isn't the issue, the poll also under sampled blacks and over sampled whites by a few points, but that isn't the issue either.
No poll is going to have a perfect sample, if the sample is off by a couple of points or so it really won't mean much in the end. However, when its off by FOURTY POINTS yes 40, its complete junk.
2008 saw a larger than normal Democrat turn out and a not so special Republican turn out. This poll has the Democrats polled at +2 and Republicans -2. Add them together and that is +4 spread for Obama.
It is true that Blacks are under represented based on 2008 participation levels +3, but not for 2004 levels. I think the party ID skew is more significant for obvious reason.
I think you'd have to agree on the following:
#1 Michigan is in play.
#2 Romney has momentum in the state for Obama to have won it by 16% and now two polls showing it a statistical tie.
#3 Either Obama or his advisers realize that the state is in play, based on his frequent campaign style stops in the state, him and his PACs spending money here, and Obama getting the 2 US Senators to make robo calls and host events on his behalf.
#4 In 2008 Obama won the 3 states that share a land border with Michigan: Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio...Obama is now in a fight to try to retain all 3 of those as well - as he is under polling his 2008 performance in each state.
Don't let that door hit ya on the way OUT (of Michigan AND Ohio), $Willie
BO - Joe 2012
Did you know that Detroit did go bankrupt. Managed bankruptcy rarely leads to large companies not existing. Don't fall for the Democratic word games to try and fool you.
Believe me you, many of us Democrats are hoping Romney will spend his money in Michigan.
As long as the Detroit area is 10 times larger than the rest of the state, Michigan is not in play.
Republicans can and have won the suburbs of Detroit. The suburbs of Detroit have 5 times the population of the city of Detroit.
Are you actually saying that Michigan is not currently in play?
Why is Obama spending money in Michigan? Why did Obama and his PACs dump more into Michigan so far than Romney - despite the fact that Romney had to run a primary here?
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