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Why only 76%..go for the full gamut..98% sounds much better.
I'm sure that 76% got Chris Mathews leg all tingling away. I flipped on MSNBC the other night late before going to bed and he looked like a kid on Christmas morning fawning about the first lady speech. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry at how lost that guy is. He seriously needs mental help and I'm not kidding.
I am sure he is so much closer to 270 than Obama....so how is Romney going to hit that magic number?
By winning more states. Essentially every "swing state" (MO,IA, WI, OH, VA, NC, FL) will go to Romney.
Romney will probably win PA as well, but he won't need it.
By the time the exit polls have been released for the midwest and east, people on the west coast will realize that it is mathematically impossible for Obama to win, which may suppress liberal voters. It is quite possible that Romney could do the unthinkable- win CA, OR, or WA.
When Romney wins, the liberals will never understand how it could have happened. They simply don't understand that the balance of the country wants lower unemployment, better wages, higher savings, and less debt. Gay marriage is issue #336.
By winning more states. Essentially every "swing state" (MO,IA, WI, OH, VA, NC, FL) will go to Romney.
Romney will probably win PA as well, but he won't need it.
By the time the exit polls have been released for the midwest and east, people on the west coast will realize that it is mathematically impossible for Obama to win, which may suppress liberal voters. It is quite possible that Romney could do the unthinkable- win CA, OR, or WA.
When Romney wins, the liberals will never understand how it could have happened. They simply don't understand that the balance of the country wants lower unemployment, better wages, higher savings, and less debt. Gay marriage is issue #336.
The NYT is in the pocket of the libs. Do you think they'd write a fair report about what Obama's chances in November are?
Obama is set to speak tomorrow. They had a stadium all picked out, only they cancelled that venue "conveniently" and are claiming it's because of a "weather" issue. The fact is that they are busing in spectators from all over North Carolina as well as from out of state to fill the new "smaller" venue.
Two of the most powerful forces in current US politics are denial and wishful thinking. Here we are dealing with the latter. Why so much emphasis on the electoral maps this year? Obviously it is because the electoral maps tend to favor Obama, while the national polls have the race in a tie (48.6 all in today's RCP avg). Thus the electoral maps have emerged as a parlor game for Democrats this year.
But as Charlie Cook points out, in 53 of 56 presidential elections, the popular vote winner has also been the EC winner.
Calling a 76 percent chance when the RCP avg is tied (Romney actually up if you toss out the polls over 1 week old) is absurd on its face. No doubt Silver is a smart guy, but he just hurt his credibility in my book. This is basically the flip side of the people on the other side like Dick Morris who have been predicting a 55-45 blowout for Romney. Wishful thinking.
The election is close enough that if there is even a modest bias in the polls toward Mr. Obama, the president’s chances will be tenuous."
Equates to a 76% chance. Basically he is saying it's so close that it boils down to how accurate the polls are and they are coming in very close.
How does one figure 76% after saying this?
Not sure. He was spot on during the 2008 and 2010 elections, so he seems to know how to interpret and crunch the numbers.
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I am sure he is so much closer to 270 than Obama....so how is Romney going to hit that magic number?
