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Basically it works this way. The more people vote the more likely Obama is to being able to win. This was the case in 2008 when there was high voter turnout.
The Republicans know this and this is why they are doing everything to keep people from being able to vote.
I just read the latest article on Nate Silver's blog - I thought it was fairly insightful. And I liked the statistical and probabilistic approach he takes. I followed his work on baseball probabilities from years ago. There is a lot to be said for his work.
However, it isn't a stretch to assume Obama has the upperhand. If you believe the polls, he only needs FL and one other "toss-up" state to seal the deal. Of course, 0 votes have been cast and technically even CA is in play... but let's be realistic about that.
The key thing Silver notes is that it likely comes down to what "category" registered voters place this election. Is it simply a referendum against Obama? Or is it an "election of choice?" I think the events of the next two months will be key. If voters feel that this is a referendum election, Obama may lose.
So Obama can win if 90% of all registered voters, voted... Boy is he in trouble then because we've NEVER had that much turnout.. dumb thread.
Good Lord--can you read a simple article? According to Silver, with likely voters, Obama has a 68% chance of winning. If every registered voter actually votes, he has a 90% chance of winning. 35% of the country are registered democrats, and 30% are registered republicans. SO, according to his analysis, if everyone who normally votes actually votes, the D's have a 68% chance of winning. If there is higher voter turnout than normal, the percentage goes up from there. That's why the R party is working so hard to suppress the black vote--they want fewer likely voters at the voting booth.
What makes anyone think that Obama will match the turnout of 2008, much less increase that turnout? He had no trouble filling stadiums in 2008 but can't come close in 2012.
Basically it works this way. The more people vote the more likely Obama is to being able to win. This was the case in 2008 when there was high voter turnout.
The Republicans know this and this is why they are doing everything to keep people from being able to vote.
I agree 100%. The higher the turnout, the higher the percentage of uniformed voters, and that is right in Obama's wheelhouse. Barack Obama really launched in Iowa 2008. The turnout was almost double from 2004, and when Team Hillary saw the crazy turnout numbers coming in, they knew that they were doomed.
So what are you going to do if the polls are the prognosticators are right and Obama wins, self medication?
Nope-
Accept defeat and admit I was wrong. However, the chances of Obama winning is close to ZERO. The nation has tired of his ineptitude, like Carter before him, and will show him the door. It is just as certain as a democrat winning in 2008. Bo is gone.
In contrast, nearly EVERY LIBERAL will deny having ever said that Obama was going to win. Wait for it - it will happen again this time.
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