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You are right, my apologies - I got the approval poll mixed up in there, somehow.
I don't disagree that the trending is the safer way to assess, just trying to make it clear that for an individual study, a margin of error of +/- 3 doesn't mean that every outcome within that interval is equally likely. It's more of a bell curve - there's a much higher likelihood of the result being off by 1 (in either direction, natch) than by 3.
Considering that Romney was up +3 a few days ago and is now +1, I think we can both agree that the a fluctuation of +1-4, probably doesn't mean much at this point. RCP has Obama at +0.7, which is pretty much a statistical tie. If Gallup has Obama up by +7 next week, you can tell me how dead wrong I was. I'll probably tell you that could change, but I would at least admit that it is a significant bounce.
Was the +3 for Obama a result of the convention? Maybe, maybe not. Its probably too soon to see if the DNC will have any lasting impact on the polls. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think Gallup interviewed thousands of people minutes after Obama's speech last night.
If you go directly to their website, Gallup has yet to announce if Obama experienced a bounce or not from the DNC. So, personally, I'd like to hear it from the horses mouth, before I jump to any conclusions. But thats just me...
In fact, I believe that Gallup only calls it a bounce if its +4 or 5.
I'm not happy about the economy (and believe me, we've lived it with my husband being out of work for 18 mos. but thankfully employed now) but I have not heard A SINGLE THING from the Romney camp that makes me thing the situation would any better from them. And given Romney's dealings at Bain, I could see him making the situation much worse. Things have gotten better under Obama--slowly, to be sure--but it's much better than it could have been.
Obama is not a messiah to me, false or otherwise, but I give him credit for doing the best anyone could with the mess he walked into. What is it that you think Romney can or would do to make things better, quicker?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Cooper
Damn. Pathetic.
Stop threatening businesses with higher taxes and bogus forced insurance. Business would automatically take off like a rocket.
It's NOT rocket science.
Someone out of work for 18 months and would still vote for OBoy.........there's no hope.
Let me translate Dalespeak for everyone:
"No, I can't think of a damn thing that Romney can do better."
Ithink the bad news today couldn't have come at a worse time for Obama being day after hius speech. mnay will queation what he emant from the long recovery remarks in that he knew the data already.3% drop i participation rate means the unemlyemnt numbers mean little nowwith so mnay not being counted at all.
I get the distinct feeling this is going to stick...
My bet is that The Empty Chair is stickier.
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It is interesting
The RNC sucked.
