Running the Numbers: Presidential Polls v Actual Elections (John Kerry, Al Gore, votes)

[DRob4JC]

Here's a history of polls and how they relate to actual election results.


100 Days Out, Gallup Poll Sees a Tie

Below are the midsummer polling numbers of the past 12 elections, with the final percentage of votes in parenthesis. [I added the electoral college numbers in brackets]

2008

Barack Obama – 47% (53%) -- [365]
John McCain – 41% (46%) -- [173]

2004

George W. Bush – 48% (51%) -- [286]
John Kerry – 47% (48%) -- [251]

2000

George W. Bush – 46% (47.9%) -- [271]
Al Gore – 41% (48.4%) -- [266]

1996

Bill Clinton – 50% (49%) -- [379]
Bob Dole – 35% (41%) -- [159]
Ross Perot – 10% (8%)

1992

Bill Clinton – 56% (43%) -- [370]
George H.W. Bush – 36% (37.5%) -- [168]
Ross Perot – Not applicable (19%)

1988

Michael Dukakis – 54% (46%) -- [111]
George H.W. Bush – 37% (53%) -- [426]

1984

Ronald Reagan – 53% (59%) -- [525]
Walter Mondale – 41% (41%) -- [13]

1980

Ronald Reagan – 45% (51%) -- [489]
Jimmy Carter – 29% (41%) -- [49]
John B. Anderson – 14% (7%)

1976

Jimmy Carter – 54% (50%) -- [297]
Gerald Ford – 32% (48%) -- [240]

[EdwardA]

Originally Posted by DRob4JC

Here's a history of polls and how they relate to actual election results.


100 Days Out, Gallup Poll Sees a Tie

Below are the midsummer polling numbers of the past 12 elections, with the final percentage of votes in parenthesis. [I added the electoral college numbers in brackets]

2008

Barack Obama – 47% (53%) -- [365]
John McCain – 41% (46%) -- [173]

2004

George W. Bush – 48% (51%) -- [286]
John Kerry – 47% (48%) -- [251]

2000

George W. Bush – 46% (47.9%) -- [271]
Al Gore – 41% (48.4%) -- [266]

1996

Bill Clinton – 50% (49%) -- [379]
Bob Dole – 35% (41%) -- [159]
Ross Perot – 10% (8%)

1992

Bill Clinton – 56% (43%) -- [370]
George H.W. Bush – 36% (37.5%) -- [168]
Ross Perot – Not applicable (19%)

1988

Michael Dukakis – 54% (46%) -- [111]
George H.W. Bush – 37% (53%) -- [426]

1984

Ronald Reagan – 53% (59%) -- [525]
Walter Mondale – 41% (41%) -- [13]

1980

Ronald Reagan – 45% (51%) -- [489]
Jimmy Carter – 29% (41%) -- [49]
John B. Anderson – 14% (7%)

1976

Jimmy Carter – 54% (50%) -- [297]
Gerald Ford – 32% (48%) -- [240]

Romney's looking good either way it'll be close. Obama could conceivably win the popular vote but fall short in the electoral college.

Wow Dukasis must have realy collapsed back in '88.

[Majin]

The problem with Romney is that Obama has been very consistently ahead by 1-2% the entire race along with the fact that Obama has a structural EV advantage. By default Romney starts off with too few EVs and the polls in swing states have been rock solidly in Obama's favor. Pretty much the only swing state Romney has a shot at is FL.

[Majin]

Originally Posted by EdwardA

Wow Dukasis must have realy collapsed back in '88.

Willie Horton political ad 1988 - YouTube

[seagull84]

If you see all named poll charts so far, the reverse scenario is more likely, i.e. R might even get a bit ahead of popular but behind much in college votes. I will be glad to see your case with some evidence other than just OP post.

Originally Posted by EdwardA

Romney's looking good either way it'll be close. Obama could conceivably win the popular vote but fall short in the electoral college.

Wow Dukasis must have realy collapsed back in '88.