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3. Third considering the voter advantage Democrats have a +11 weight over GOP is not unreasonable for a fair amount of places.
It's party ID, not party registration. Yes, it's absolutely ridiculous, given that the electorate was only D+7 in 2008 and there has been no trend towards the Democrats in either ID (or registration, since you think it's so important) since 2008. Democratic registration is way down and party ID as tracked by Gallup (and, yes, Rasmussen - though I know you don't like it) has shifted a bit away from the Democrats. I'm not aware of other pollsters who specifically track party ID. All of this being said, if I find a poll that appears to drastically oversample Democrats, I look for other things wrong with it - not party ID.
It's liberals who have been saying that party ID in the polls doesn't matter. It's amusing that liberals are b*tching about party ID now.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 10-08-2012 at 11:03 PM..
No, party ID does not equal party registration. In some polls they provide info on party ID and party registration (where applicable) of respondents. They are usually a bit different.
In 2004, NC was R+1 in so far as party ID even with Democrats having a significant registration advantage.
1. 2004 exit polls were not exactly correct.
2. Exit polls are adjusted after the fact to reflect results.
3. People tend to lie to exit pollster about party ID for a number of reasons.
1. 2004 exit polls were not exactly correct.
2. Exit polls are adjusted after the fact to reflect results.
Maybe that isn't exactly correct, but party ID is sure as hell not the same as party registration. Moreover, in many states, there is no party registration. I am not registered with any party because we do not do that in my state, but I definitely have a party ID.
Ah - I see your edit to add #3. Why would they lie about party ID? Also, if they would lie about party ID to an exit pollster, why wouldn't they lie to a pollster who called them?
It's party ID, not party registration. Yes, it's absolutely ridiculous, given that the electorate was only D+7 in 2008 and there has been no trend towards the Democrats in either ID (or registration, since you think it's so important) since 2008. Democratic registration is way down and party ID as tracked by Gallup (and, yes, Rasmussen - though I know you don't like it) has shifted a bit away from the Democrats. I'm not aware of other pollsters who specifically track party ID. All of this being said, if I find a poll that appears to drastically oversample Democrats, I look for other things wrong with it - not party ID.
It's liberals who have been saying that party ID in the polls doesn't matter. It's amusing that liberals are b*tching about party ID now.
At least where I live party registration has not changed at all since 2008 it is still about the same as it was then.
As to party ID of polls I think it matters to an extent, but really it is going to be luck of the draw. I do think it is important to note a survey with a higher amount of GOP then Democrats, because that is not how it is in the real world.
Maybe that isn't exactly correct, but party ID is sure as hell not the same as party registration. Moreover, in many states, there is no party registration. I am not technically anything.
Ah - I see your edit to add #3. Why would they lie about party ID? Moreover, if they would lie about party ID to an exit pollster, why wouldn't they lie to a pollster who called them?
In 2004 exit polls were not even within the statistical margin of error in numerous states as such they just sort of messed with them so they would match the results at the end.
As to 3 very simple there are lots of reasons, sometimes they are embarrassed about who they are voting for. Sometimes they think they will skew a survey etc.
As to lying on phone polls that is entirely possible as well. My folks lie on polls all the time because they think some polls are set up by political campaigns and they want to give a response that will save them from getting junk mail, or they want people they don't like to waste their time, money and effort sending them crap. Interestingly enough it works since I have openly socialist relatives on Romney's mailing list. Just think...your contribution to Romney is being used on mailers that provide a socialist with something they can put their pumpkin guts on when they are prepping for Halloween.
I also know some folks who lie to pollsters because its funny, heck I have even done it a few times because I think it might be a push poll and I want to hear their schtick.
Last edited by Randomstudent; 10-08-2012 at 11:31 PM..
Getting back to the question of Polls: Has everyone seen the pew poll? I'm honestly puzzled by it.
It has Romney up by quite a significant amount. This is significant because Pew has very consistently had Obama winning by 10 when other polls have shown him to be winning by 2-4.
Obviously, something changed, but I'm unsure what. It isn't that Romney suddenly raced ahead of Obama because the other polls don't reflect it.
Did they change their methodology recently? Or was it a very significant overpoll of Republicans due to the vagaries of chance?
The best part is the polls are biased towards the Socialist side...
I still don't trust the Diebold machines and the complicit Pravda like media though...
Hopefully we can overthrow our Commie dictator peacefully...
Never heard of dictators being thrown out peacefully, but this is not the first outlandish comment you've made today
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