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Old 10-18-2012, 12:04 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,166,968 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wxjay View Post
New Gallup poll: Romney +7 (52-45)


Thanks for posting!

 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:05 PM
 
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I suspect the current Gallup poll will reflect the actual popular vote 19 days from now.
 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:06 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maabus1999 View Post
And if you look at the National polls this week, there are plenty with Obama +1 to +3 too. +4 for either candidate is approaching plausible but unlikely at this time nationally.

+7 is just a foolish model. Heck when it was +5 for Obama a month ago I thought it was a bit high and just a trend blip. I'm going to just assume Gallup is having some statistical irregularities but it is approaching a point of failing a P-test (which in statistics means something is wrong with your data) when compared to the other polls.


The polling becomes more realistic the closer to election day we get. They do not want to sacrifice what little credibility they might have.
 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:07 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed from California View Post
I suspect the current Gallup poll will reflect the actual popular vote 19 days from now.
popular vote doesn't win elections
 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,077 posts, read 51,218,516 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed from California View Post
I suspect the current Gallup poll will reflect the actual popular vote 19 days from now.
Then there will be some pretty angry Republicans because they will have lost the electoral vote while winning by a large margin in the popular vote.
 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:08 PM
 
3,620 posts, read 3,835,005 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
The polling becomes more realistic the closer to election day we get. They do not want to sacrifice what little credibility they might have.
now she swears by gallup. five days from now when obama is back ahead she'll be saying they are all biased against repubs.

i on the other hand have said from the start that national polls mean nothing, that it is state polls that matter.
 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:08 PM
 
13,721 posts, read 19,254,280 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
LOL it's really disgusting that an incumbent President at such perilous times has no vision of the future but to nitpick at comments from his opponent.

Politics aside thoughtful Dems can't be happy about this strategy. I would like to think they would want a substantive airing of real issues, not this garbage.
I agree. He is so un-presidential in that way, and he has been his entire presidency. He lacks the class to take the high road. Instead of focusing on what HE is has/plans to do, he talks down the former president, his current opponent, Sean Hannity, and anyone else who agrees with him. It's just not very presidential and not becoming at all. I have never seen a president behave the way he does.
 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:09 PM
 
Location: San Diego, CA
10,581 posts, read 9,781,638 times
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Default RCP Average of polls now shows Romney has more ELECTORAL VOTES than Obama, too

Obama's campaign hopes are crumbling faster and faster.

Electoral votes are what win Presidential elections, of course, more than popular-vote totals.

And according to the RealClearPolitics.com averages, Mitt Romney has now passed Obama in electoral vote totals, as well as in popular vote totals.

Note that the RCP average includes many polls that have hugely lopsided numbers of more Democrats than Republicans, which frequently show Democrats doing better than they really are.

The bell is tolling, Demmies. And it's tolling for you.

 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:10 PM
 
2,986 posts, read 4,576,206 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtc08 View Post
now she swears by gallup. five days from now when obama is back ahead she'll be saying they are all biased against repubs.

i on the other hand have said from the start that national polls mean nothing, that it is state polls that matter.
she flip flops more than R-Money when it comes to the polls
 
Old 10-18-2012, 12:17 PM
 
3,620 posts, read 3,835,005 times
Reputation: 1512
here are updated odds. i trust these more then any poll

Tue 11/6 1001 Barack Obama wins 2012 election -220
6:00AM 1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +180

Tue 11/6 1101 Barack Obama wins Colorado -135
6:00AM 1102 Mitt Romney wins Colorado -105

Tue 11/6 1103 Barack Obama wins Florida +140
6:00AM 1104 Mitt Romney wins Florida -180

Tue 11/6 1105 Barack Obama wins Iowa -230
6:00AM 1106 Mitt Romeny wins Iowa +170

Tue 11/6 1107 Barack Obama wins New Hampshire -245
6:00AM 1108 Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire +175

Tue 11/6 1109 Barack Obama wins Ohio -230
6:00AM 1110 Mitt Romney wins Ohio +170

Tue 11/6 1111 Barack Obama wins Virginia +100
6:00AM 1112 Mitt Romney wins Virginia -140

Tue 11/6 1113 Barack Obama wins Wisconsin -280
6:00AM 1114 Mitt Romney wins Wisconsin +200
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