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Having shown Obama as much as four points ahead of Romney in the immediate aftermath of the Conventions, Rasmussen now has the president down to a one point margin: Obama: 46 Romney: 45.
Yes, another hugely skewed "poll" where they blithely asked 572 Democrats, and only 439 Republicans. That's 30% more Dems than Repubs.
Surprise, surprise! Obama came out ahead!
.....barely.
48% of "likely" voters would vote for Obama.
45% would vote for Romney.
or...
47% or "registered" voters would vote for Obama.
43% would vote for Romney.
Yes, after asking 30% more Democrats than Republicans, Obama gets a slight edge.
Does anybody think that 30% more Democrats will vote on Nov. 6, 2012, than Republicans?
-----------------------------
Keep in mind the past turnout patterns:
Year. . . Dem/GOP voters (million)
2006 . . . . 42/36 . . . non-Presidential election, after too much Repub govt deficits
2008 . . . . 69/60 . . . Presidential election, more high Repub deficits, huge enthusiasm for unknown Obama
2010 . . . . 36/41 . . . non-Presidential election, after HUGE Dem deficits and Obama's agenda is revealed
2012 . . . . ??/??. . . . Presidential election, after Americans find even more Obama agenda while Repubs fight tax and spending hikes
.
Turnout percentages were about the same in 2006 and 2008, and situations were roughly the same.
Situations are also roughly the same between 2010 and 2012. Is there any reason that turnout percentages for each party, should be significantly different between 2010 and 2012?
CONCLUSION: November 2012 is going to be a blowout. And all the ridiculously skewed polls the media can produce, won't change what's coming.
With a 47-37 lead over Romney Obama lost 6 points in Massachusetts most consertive of Districts.
An intresting note with the Congressional race Libertarian Daniel Fishman is pulling in 6% of the vote, and "other" in the pres poll is pulling the usual 2% http://www.wbur.org/files/2012/09/09...ne-results.pdf
remember poll ahas a 4.9% margin or error with 95% confidence.
Even more troubling for Romney, Obama has overcome Mitt's 10 pt lead with undecided/independents, and now leads Romney with that group by 3 pts, a thirteen point swing. The two candidates are now tied on the question of who can better handle the economy, Romney's main issue.
Furthermore, there are far fewer people now identifying themselves as undecideds, from 26 to 17%, which has the effect of cementing Obama's lead.
Even more troubling for Romney, Obama has overcome Mitt's 10 pt lead with undecided/independents, and now leads Romney with that group by 3 pts, a thirteen point swing. The two candidates are now tied on the question of who can better handle the economy, Romney's main issue.
Furthermore, there are far fewer people now identifying themselves as undecideds, from 26 to 17%, which has the effect of cementing Obama's lead.
Good news, of course, but I find it hard to believe that nearly one out of five are undecided. I don't know anyone who is and I don't know anyone who is not strongly decided for that matter.
Another lib who can't figure out what a sticky is and how to use it.
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Reuters/Ipsos finds Obama ahead 48%-45%... after asking ***30%*** more Dems than Repubs
