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Rasmussen got 5 states wrong back in 08 which is why I don't put much stock in them. They advertising anti Obama ads on there main page. I want a neutral pollster, which is why its hard for me to take them seriously. I'll note them and analyze them though.
Rasmussen Ohio Romney 50 Obama 48 prior poll tie at 48.
Analysis: Rasmussen is a proven right leaning poll with an average of 3.5 point republican bias. There is no breakdown of the poll, so we can't see the percentages of people being polled. I think this poll tells me thing have tightened up moreso in Ohio then Romney actually leading Ohio.
I agree, but tin foil hatters will continue to believe that Obama has an advantage there.
I agree, but tin foil hatters will continue to believe that Obama has an advantage there.
Reading the internals of that Rass support make me think it is off by quite a bit. Obama having a 10% defecit to Romney on National Security issues just makes the whole thing look very partisan.
Hard conservatives will point out Benghazi and what not, but to the average voter it means very little, and for months the President has lead by a large margin on National Security or at best statistical tie.
Having a 10% national security defecit makes me question that poll tremendously on who responded to Rass's landline Robocalls.
Throw in only a 1% undecided factor and the disapproval rating of Obama way higher then other Ohio polls have shown, and I would confident to say that this polls has some questions to it.
My guess is Obama is up 2 points in the real world outside of polls. Still will be too close to call I think on election night.
Reading the internals of that Rass support make me think it is off by quite a bit. Obama having a 10% defecit to Romney on National Security issues just makes the whole thing look very partisan.
Hard conservatives will point out Benghazi and what not, but to the average voter it means very little, and for months the President has lead by a large margin on National Security or at best statistical tie.
Having a 10% national security defecit makes me question that poll tremendously on who responded to Rass's landline Robocalls.
Throw in only a 1% undecided factor and the disapproval rating of Obama way higher then other Ohio polls have shown, and I would confident to say that this polls has some questions to it.
My guess is Obama is up 2 points in the real world outside of polls. Still will be too close to call I think on election night.
How do you know that recent events from Benghazi aren't playing into these polls? It's pretty smug to believe that "it doesn't matter" to the average voter. I believe you're wrong there.
Your point, often repeated by Obama partisans, misses this fact: it is entirely possible to be highly enthusiastic about 'anybody but Obama.' Yard signs, proselytizing friends and neighbors and associates, showing up at rallies...the 'anybody but Obama' campaign is full of enthusiasm.
You're maybe right, but I have a hard time buying that. It's hard to quantify the effect stuff like yard signs and "proselytizing" actually has in terms of voter turnout.
Ohio is all about turnout, the state is very close with almost no undecideds left. Obama needs to run things up in Northeast Ohio and poll well with working class whites in the Northwest. Romney needs to run things up in southeast coal country of Ohio and take the battlegrounds of the Columbus area and Hamilton county.
Honestly I think whoever wins Hamilton county could very well take the state.
Non poll news: Messina says Obama campaign to buy ads in PA "not taking anything for granted".
Their internals must be bad as I stated earlier PA has similar demographics as Ohio but didn't get bombarded with negative ads and no early voting.
Clinton to Minnesota, WaPo moves from solid Obama to just lean Obama
Couple polls in NC show tied race.
I still think Romney wins but if what I witnessed in MD early voting this weekend is an indicator Black turnout should be high in NC which makes Obama competitive there.
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