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Ohio is all about turnout, the state is very close with almost no undecideds left. Obama needs to run things up in Northeast Ohio and poll well with working class whites in the Northwest. Romney needs to run things up in southeast coal country of Ohio and take the battlegrounds of the Columbus area and Hamilton county.
Honestly I think whoever wins Hamilton county could very well take the state.
Just about all races will be based on turnout, that's why I think the polls are going to be wrong in many places.
I've been following this storm on some weather forums and there is strong evidence now that this storm is going to be very, very powerful and may cause a significant event in the Northeast. In the past 12 hours Sandy is showing signs of significant intensification.
I have no idea how this will impact election day other than it will.
I've been following this storm on some weather forums and there is strong evidence now that this storm is going to be very, very powerful and may cause a significant event in the Northeast. In the past 12 hours Sandy is showing signs of significant intensification.
I have no idea how this will impact election day other than it will.
if Obama doesnt screw it up like bush with katrina it will win him re-election.
come across strong and on point and you will look good.
sandy also puts libya and the economy on the backburner.
I'm coming to the conclusion that there will be a very big November surprise this year: the actual results of the election.
There are many, many posts on this thread about national polls vs. state polls, and the merits or biases of each prominent pollster, and likely voters vs. registered voters, and partisan enthusiasm, Intrade, etc., etc. Like everybody else, I prefer the polls that show my guy doing better than the other guy.
But a strong majority of the polls at any level, a consensus of all the data points, is that Obama is losing among independents. If this is right, he is just about ready to pop out of the toaster--nice and crisp and warm.
I'm coming to the conclusion that there will be a very big November surprise this year: the actual results of the election.
There are many, many posts on this thread about national polls vs. state polls, and the merits or biases of each prominent pollster, and likely voters vs. registered voters, and partisan enthusiasm, Intrade, etc., etc. Like everybody else, I prefer the polls that show my guy doing better than the other guy.
But a strong majority of the polls at any level, a consensus of all the data points, is that Obama is losing among independents. If this is right, he is just about ready to pop out of the toaster--nice and crisp and warm.
Independents, depends on what poll you look at. Give me 5 saying Romney leads, I'll give you 5 saying Obama leads.
I agree with you on national polls, but I don't on state polls.
Independents, depends on what poll you look at. Give me 5 saying Romney leads, I'll give you 5 saying Obama leads.
I agree with you on national polls, but I don't on state polls.
I'd like to see just one national poll that shows Obama leading among independents. Haven't seen one yet. Please post the link. I want a national poll within the last month that has showed Obama leading among independents. I don't believe there is one.
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November Surprise
