Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Nate is on the ropes and is flailing away being attacked by his own public editor. Now liberals are beginning to walk away from him by saying, "Well he isn't predicting an outcome, he's just giving probabilities!".
LOL Nate will be toast come Wednesday morning back to the poker tables for him.
He's "on the ropes" by assessing polling data? You are a funny one.
And yes, his model gives the current odds of a certain outcome. If Romney were playing Russian Roulette, and there were five bullets in a six-shooter, his odds of shooting himself in the head would be about the same as his odds of losing the election.
I don't particularly follow polls, which is why I don't participate in this thread. However, I read this article today about Nate Silver, (which I see some of you mention), so I thought I'd point everyone to it. Yes, it's a partisan website, so you can take/leave what it says, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.
Mr. Silver only gives probabilities of an outcome. So, there is a 1 out of 5 chance that Romney will win. If Romney does in fact win, then Mr. Silver isn't 'wrong'.
Mr. Silver only gives probabilities of an outcome. So, there is a 1 out of 5 chance that Romney will win. If Romney does in fact win, then Mr. Silver isn't 'wrong'.
Yep. If I were a weather man, I'd always predict a 50% chance of precipitation. I won't be wrong and no one could yell at me.
Yep. If I were a weather man, I'd always predict a 50% chance of precipitation. I won't be wrong and no one could yell at me.
Yep. And when this is over, all the pollsters, with the possible exception of Gallup, will be able to say they correctly predicted the outcome within the margin of error of their models.
Uh, oh. The last bastion of hope for Republicans, Rasmussen, put up their numbers today. They have it tied. Mitt's national poll lead has completely evaporated and turned to Obama. RCP now has the Prez leading by .3.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
