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What are you basing your "collapsing support in the Philly suburbs" assessment on? A single Susquehanna poll? Susquehanna only put Obama up two points in the state after the Democratic National Convention when even Rasmussen gave him 9 to 11 point leads during the same period.
I guess you missed the NY Times article this week. Here take a look
Quote:
But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.
If ever there were a place where a last-ditch torrent of money could move the needle, this is it. For the last couple of months, there has been a void of presidential ads in Pennsylvania. So when Republican strategists looked for places where their money could go the furthest, they set their sights here, reasoning that a dollar spent in Erie or Altoona would have a greater impact than in a place like Las Vegas or Cleveland, where political commercials have clogged the airwaves.
LOL. That's funny. I prefer to look at this stuff called "data" instead. PA will be as blue as AZ will be red. Romney coming to PA at the last minute reeks of desperation and everyone there knows it. Romney is struggling in Ohio, so what makes you think he would fare any better in a strongly Democratic-leaning state?
LOL. That's funny. I prefer to look at this stuff called "data" instead. PA will be as blue as AZ will be red. Romney coming to PA at the last minute reeks of desperation and everyone there knows it. Romney is struggling in Ohio, so what makes you think he would fare any better in a strongly Democratic-leaning state?
Because every year it's the same.
2000:
"This is the year we finally turn PA red! Just you wait and see! Oh... darn... well, next time we will for sure! Just you wait and see!".
2004:
"This is the year we finally turn PA red! Just you wait and see! Oh... darn... well, next time we will for sure! Just you wait and see!".
2008:
"This is the year we finally turn PA red! Just you wait and see! Oh... darn... well, next time we will for sure! Just you wait and see!".
2012:
"This is the year we finally turn PA red! Just you wait and see!".
And we're all still waiting... like we have been for years and years...
Seems our Republicans are desperately thrashing about looking for a combination that does not include Ohio - just like Mitt's campaign is doing today. Mitt is going to VA and FL today? WTF?
Yeah...it's a tough road for him. Even if OH goes bad for Obama (unlikely), Romney still loses if Obama gets VA (likely), Iowa (likely), Wisconsin (likely) and NH.
PA is COMPLETELY off the table. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are just too big. And the votes in the Lehigh Valley completely neutralize the Pennsyltucky vote.
Its in the medias interest to tell you its a close race so you stay tuned, its not actually true. They do that every election, they tried to make it seem like Obama would lose because people were lying to pollsters about supporting a black person. Nate Silver is looking at statistical indicators and has a great track record of success.
Yes, this is just one of many examples of when the media is really serving its own needs, and misinforming the public. I suspect it happens all the time. For mainstream media, controversy sells. For rightwing media, ego-stroking sells.
Just finished Silver's book (very good), and he himself says that individual predictors rarely beat the market.
Intrade is holding at about 66% Obama, 34% Romney.
I think Silver's model is designed to uptick as it gradually decouples from economic fundamentals and leans more and more toward polls. It must also recognize inertia. Namely, all things being equal, it is hard for things to majorly change with only a couple days than a couple months, as we have all seen. Not much can turn the ship now ( I was going to say cannot turn the Titanic, but that is not exactly flattering to Obama ....).
At this point, the only thing that may change the race is if some photos surface of Obama in bed with two or three dead, underage white girls.
That may do it.
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