***Presidential Polls*** #2 (votes, campaign, biased, Obama)

[nineball]

RealPolitico which takes an average of polls has a 4.1% spread.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama

[gtc08]

rcp average of recent PA polls is Obama +4.1.

Romneys tie is the outlier, which means it should be discarded.

[gtc08]

susquehanna is also a republican pollster. if they showed the methodology i would tear it apart, but i dont care. its an outlier poll, that is discarded in my virtual trash bin.

[sanrene]

Dispatch Poll: Ohio's a toss-up | The Columbus Dispatch

However, that 2-point edge is within the survey’s margin of sampling error, plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

A TIE in other words...but then there's this;

and a 4-point edge in northwestern Ohio, which in past elections has proved a reliable barometer for the whole state.

Romney in lead there. Obama better increase those margins NE OH or he's sunk.

[gtc08]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Dispatch Poll: Ohio's a toss-up | The Columbus Dispatch



A TIE in other words...but then there's this;



Romney in lead there. Obama better increase those margins NE OH or he's sunk.

Obama is +2.8 in the RCP of recent polls, hes looking good.

[EdwardA]

Obama is toast. Romney will win 2 out of OH, PA, WI, MI or MN coupled with sweeping the Southern swing states and Colorado for good measure.

[MaseMan]

Originally Posted by EdwardA

Obama is toast. Romney will win 2 out of OH, PA, WI, MI or MN coupled with sweeping the Southern swing states and Colorado for good measure.

LOL. You lost your credibility by suggesting Romney has any shot in Minnesota.

[jt800]

LOL....I LIVE in Pennsylvania...I KNOW Romney will win it.

[EdwardA]

Originally Posted by gtc08

doesnt mean its a poll anybody should pay attention to. look at the methodology of that poll.

michigan 2012 presidential general election historical turnout participation percentage
black: 17.49
white: 74.51
hispanic: 2.68

now look at the people who answered the poll
black: 8.05
white: 86.25
hispanic: 1.73


way oversampled whites, undersampled blacks and latinos.

Poll truther now? Still valid point but the poll is also plus 9 Dem so basically White Dems are shifting to Romney. So an uptick in Black vote would be offset by a more accurate partisan split and defections of White Dems. Party like it's 1980!

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Dispatch Poll: Ohio's a toss-up | The Columbus Dispatch



A TIE in other words...but then there's this;



Romney in lead there. Obama better increase those margins NE OH or he's sunk.

No, it does not mean it is a tie. It means that the pollster predicts with 95% confidence that the outcome will lie between -0.2 and +4.2 Obama. So there is a chance in this poll that Romney could win but it is at the margin of the margin if you will and has about the same chance of happening as Obama winning with 4%. Both of those are small. The estimate of error in survey such as this is normally distributed just as the survey results themselves are. In other words, it is much more likely that the 2% win for Obama will occur than it is for a 0.2 win for Romney or a 4.2% Obama triumph.