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Rasmussen was closet to the numbers last time, so they have the most credibility until proven otherwise.
No they weren't (article about how the various pollsters did in the last election (ie 2010):
"...Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year..."
With respect to left or right bias. We are about to find out, I think, at least for 2012.
It would be a fascinating development if virtually every poll in this cycle turned out to have democratic sample bias, wouldn't it. It would turn polling science on its ear. Somehow, I am confident that is not going to be the case.
Ohio is one of the best examples of the country, it has a mix of every type of voter in this country from city to rural and from Republican to Democrat and it is fairly evenly split. Then when you throw in the fact that both sides are fairly equal in electoral votes, it makes states like Ohio key states to win, and the 18 electoral votes helps as well.
It's the largest state theoretically up for grabs. If Romney loses there, it's almost impossible for him to win the Electoral College. He'd have to run the board with every other swing state, which is unlikely because most polls say that Nevada is no longer in play.
Obama has other combinations of states that could give him the election if he loses Ohio.
As they say, no Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio.
It would be a fascinating development if virtually every poll in this cycle turned out to have democratic sample bias, wouldn't it. It would turn polling science on its ear. Somehow, I am confident that is not going to be the case.
North Carolina early voting has passed 2008 early voting, with 2.7 million early votes. This is 40% of all registered voters in NC and many urban counties have extended early voting hours in the last days due to extremely heavy turn out.
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