Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
you say romney wins all 7 of those states, 5 of those being underdogs, 4 of the 5 being a decent underdog, and florida being a tiny romney edge. go to vegas and parlay that, place a hundred and youll win 28,000.
realistically you could convince me that romney would win 3 of those. when you start talking about big dog states like nevada, wisconsin, then i know you arnt being serious.
Problem with pollster like PPP, NBC/MARIST - they are using TO models from 2008..sometimes greater than that. For example, the Marist OH poll is using DEM+9 - there is NO WAY dems will TO in greater numbers than 2008.Not even close - they are down 150,000 in Reg, while GOP is UP 100,000 in reg. Plus early voting is not looking good for them, way off 2008.
Gallup and Rasmussen are the biggest most right wing polls period Rasmussen has had R Money up by a min of 3 almost the whole time since may even when all other polls had Obama winning
Gallup has suspended their tracker so for all we know the gap might have closed with them just like it did with Ras.
Just a few days ago it was Obama who was up big with Indies. NH is a weird state and is supposedly difficult to poll. Granite state is a decent poll but this kind of gyration near the end of the process makes it questionable no matter who you like. One thing about NH though is that while it goes this way and that way in polls it usually comes through for the Dems.
Problem with pollster like PPP, NBC/MARIST - they are using TO models from 2008..sometimes greater than that. For example, the Marist OH poll is using DEM+9 - there is NO WAY dems will TO in greater numbers than 2008.Not even close - they are down 150,000 in Reg, while GOP is UP 100,000 in reg. Plus early voting is not looking good for them, way off 2008.
Same with PPP and their OH,FL,VA DEM+8,8,9.
People in FL waiting four hours to vote. They certainly aren't waiting for Obama.
Just a few days ago it was Obama who was up big with Indies. NH is a weird state and is supposedly difficult to poll. Granite state is a decent poll but this kind of gyration near the end of the process makes it questionable no matter who you like. One thing about NH though is that while it goes this way and that way in polls it usually comes through for the Dems.
Yes...NH is trending toward Romney, just like PA, WI, MI are.
So in order to believe the Marist poll, that Obama is up over the margin of error, you have to believe that the intensity level for Obama by party ID is higher now than it was in 2008. You have to believe that the swing from 2008 to 2010, where party ID went from D+8 to R+1, resulting in the election of a Republican governor, a Republican Senator, and control of the state house, all that has not only vanished, but recoiled even further in Obama’s direction.
People in FL waiting four hours to vote. They certainly aren't waiting for Obama.
Yes they are. Early voters in FL support Obama by a higher percentage than Romney. That's why the tea party Gov of Florida has been trying to suppress Democrats votes as much as possible. He decreased early voting from 14 days in 2008 to 8 days in 2012. Thus the long lines. He is hoping it deters some Democrats from voting. It has likely done the opposite.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
